staurum

8 June 2016 (notes)

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
32 0 0
Weekly: Still bearish , with some turning to neutral. Closing higher by weekend is needed. otherwise the windblow continues down. Range: (120x/121x -- 130x/131x). Note: 1251.8 is WMA10.

Daily: last candle managed to range lower, but closed inside the op/close of the previous one. Threads almost reach the overbought, MACD if it stays like this, can manage to cross zero. Good thing: close above DMA21 (now at 1242). but challenge remains DMA50 @1247 and DMA34 @1251.7. Floors kept at DMA10/100 + Mid BBand@1224-1226. Momentum is lazy. Range : 1225 - 1250.

Intraday: H4- the threads gone from o-bought to raining, but immediately supported at H4MA100 1238, although pierced 1235. Threads now pick up, MACD showing a good sign of recovery, and momentum rebounded. A lower low will screw the momentum. Range (1237-1247).
H1: with gold             piercing above 1245, the threads are looking up. Momentum although turned to positive lastnight at 1242, it s still slowing down. Gold             is trading at the upper range, easily challenged. Pivot turns to 1241.75.

Comment: Intraday 1:30pm
It is good that gold is finally breaking high, makes the heart ticks up a beat, but depends on the close again. Note that the threads have a few space up hill before reaching peak. and by then, we have to see how momentum goes (closing above 50 is key). Since the daily wind is blowing up, it s good to buy at a dip, but not too deep for it might slips off a cliff.

This 9am move (when asia opened) is lucky for gold, as most went almost crashing. In one hit, $5 flush changed the game. Data coming out of Japan (GDP) and China (Trade Balance) might have been the spurts, but who knows.

1242 should not be touched, if gold wants to maintain current momentum. It is in overbought and divergence condition. But then again, for it to valid, it must break 1242. hourly candle close below 1247.5 should give a premature warning. we have to note gold is trading at upper range, with 1251.8 guarding the fence.
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