Our take on Gold's recent movements...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
313 0 2
Recent events show price spiked below the 4hr demand area at 1159.6-1165.6, then followed with a sharp break north capitalizing on the weak U.S employment figures. Judging from the two wicks seen at 1168.6/1169.2, we believe this market will continue to push higher today at least until 1170.4 – the lower limit of the daily swap area 1170.4-1184.0. If we get a break above this barrier, however, things will likely get interesting. The wicks marked with blue arrows at 1173.3/1178.9 represent what we like to call supply consumption wicks, which in effect, inform us that if price does indeed get above 1170.4, we’re likely heading higher to at least the 4hr swap area at 1180.1-1177.8.

Supporting higher prices is the weekly timeframe , which as you can see is currently sitting at the top-side of weekly demand at 1142.5-1167.3. However, against this trade is the fact that price has recently broke below the daily support barrier, which is the daily swap area just mentioned above at 1170.4-1184.0, thus clearing the path south for a run down to the daily demand area at 1142.5-1154.5 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

With all the points made above taken on board, here is what we have in mind so far:

1. Watch for a break above 1170.4, and look to trade any confirmed retest seen, targeting the 4hr swap area at 1180.1-1177.8 as per the red arrows.
2. If price continues to decline as it has been doing for much of this week, we’re looking at playing the 4hr Quasimodo support level below the recently spiked 4hr demand at 1149.6 for a potential long trade (positioned deep within both weekly and daily demand areas mentioned above). Since this level is so well positioned, we’d usually be relatively confident in setting a pending buy order here, but with it being the last day of trade and the US heading out for Independence Day, we would only enter long here if lower timeframe confirming price action was also present.

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: 1149.6 (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).

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