XAU/USD: Catching a retracement or fighting the trend...?
My last Gold long, hoping that the down correction was over, failed. Luckily my SL was tight so losses were not too big. The trend on lower timeframes is now certainly down but we should at some stage have a corrective move up.
I will try to catch such a corrective move up with this idea based on harmonics which I'm currently studying in more detail.
The first impulse move down had a nice retracement to .618 which would suggest a 1.618 projection of BC to complete a perfect AB=CD. However we only saw a small correction at that point (1144, my SL on the previous long was below that point).
A possible next PRZ for a corrective reversal could be the completion of an alt 1.618AB=CD which would complete at 1138.76. This will therefor be my entry point for another long. 2 trades based on this are on the chart.
SL needs to be below where a possible lower timeframe AB=CD or alt 1.618AB=CD could end, I'll have mine below 1130.
An alternative entry could be where the possible lower timeframe harmonic move ends at around 1133.41 with a tight SL, this would in any case yield much better R/R!
My first target on the trades on chart would be below S/R and the first low of this possible harmonic move (a good retracement should at least come close to that point).
Second target is at the .618 retracement, hoping to get the same retracement on this move as with the first impulse move down.
We could very well continue right away to the lower trendline in which case I will be looking for a trendine bounce or breakout trade!
In case we complete a third harmonic move and thus a bullish 3 drives pattern (possibly at the trendline below) I will be looking for a reversal trade at that point. this could however be tricky since the perfect AB=CD could end at that trendline whilst a possible alt 1.618AB=CD pattern could end below that trendline... I will in any case re-evaluate this scenario based on actual PA when or if we get to that point.
Am I fighting the trend? Possibly... but retracements are bound to happen at some stage and this is my best guess on where that could be...
I will try to catch such a corrective move up with this idea based on harmonics which I'm currently studying in more detail.
The first impulse move down had a nice retracement to .618 which would suggest a 1.618 projection of BC to complete a perfect AB=CD. However we only saw a small correction at that point (1144, my SL on the previous long was below that point).
A possible next PRZ for a corrective reversal could be the completion of an alt 1.618AB=CD which would complete at 1138.76. This will therefor be my entry point for another long. 2 trades based on this are on the chart.
SL needs to be below where a possible lower timeframe AB=CD or alt 1.618AB=CD could end, I'll have mine below 1130.
An alternative entry could be where the possible lower timeframe harmonic move ends at around 1133.41 with a tight SL, this would in any case yield much better R/R!
My first target on the trades on chart would be below S/R and the first low of this possible harmonic move (a good retracement should at least come close to that point).
Second target is at the .618 retracement, hoping to get the same retracement on this move as with the first impulse move down.
We could very well continue right away to the lower trendline in which case I will be looking for a trendine bounce or breakout trade!
In case we complete a third harmonic move and thus a bullish 3 drives pattern (possibly at the trendline below) I will be looking for a reversal trade at that point. this could however be tricky since the perfect AB=CD could end at that trendline whilst a possible alt 1.618AB=CD pattern could end below that trendline... I will in any case re-evaluate this scenario based on actual PA when or if we get to that point.
Am I fighting the trend? Possibly... but retracements are bound to happen at some stage and this is my best guess on where that could be...
Comment:
And NO, this is not revenge trading... ;-)
Comment:
Higher timeframe bats show confluence with my theories:
Comment:
Long trade triggered at 1138 and another one at 1133.
Full profit taken on the 1133 trade at 1135.50 to cover a decent part of the risk that is open from the 1138 trade!
Full profit taken on the 1133 trade at 1135.50 to cover a decent part of the risk that is open from the 1138 trade!
Trade closed: stop reached:
New long trade off the bat in other idea.
