GOLD pullback to the weekly 200 SMA

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Gold             is in a long term bear market that started in 2011. The 200 Weekly SMA shows the current market trend, and GOLD             is doing nothing but a pullback to that moving average. This is exactly the same that happened in 2008, but that time it was a pullback in a bull market.
I think the conclusion has to be:
1. There is still a chance that Gold remains in a bear market but it is attacking the weekly 200SMA quite aggressively. Once this average is cleared it´s another signal confirming the new bull.
2. If Gold is in a new bull market it will take some time (at least weeks probably months) to sustainably move back above the 200 weekly SMA (see spring 2013 + 2001) and it also will take much more time until this average is turning up again (2017 ?).
So Gold will not skyrocket now. It will consolidate around and below $1,350 for some weeks at least and once it has cleared $1,350 it will run towards $1,500/$1,530 where a multi month pullback should start and pause the new bull market for at least a couple of months maybe even a year... the parabolic super bull phase is still years away...
simple and clear
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