luke1827

Gold: Two key trendlines to watch

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
It is clear that we have been in a BEARISH downtrending channel since mid July.
Has there been a change in behaviour given the recent spike up? Let's take a look.

For this study, focus on the RED downsloping line as well as the HIGHLIGHTED YELLOW downsloping line -
which is the upper parallel of a downtrending pitchfork (credit goes to Paul Coghlan) from September 2011 when Gold             hit its all time high.

Gold             is at a critical area now where the price action could merely be a retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level -
which coincides with the HIGHLIGHTED YELLOW downsloping line - before moving further down.
If Gold             prices start to hit resistance along this line over the next few days, this is bearish and could indicate a move further down.
Following which, I would look to see if Gold             prices once again drops below the 1137.6 level (previous low) before looking for a SHORT.

However, if Gold             prices continue to stay above the RED downsloping line AND extend past the HIGHLIGHTED YELLOW downsloping line,
I would lean more towards a change in behaviour and would look for more signs to see if the move UP can be sustained.
One possible sign would be if the HIGHLIGHTED YELLOW line becomes support again.

In my opinion, it is still too early to tell if we have a confirmed change in behaviour.
I will wait and watch the price action over the next few days before entering the market. Will update if I see anything more.
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