It is looking like XAUUSD has a sequential patterns happening. It also looks to be continuing this pattern in a Matryoshka doll fashion. The largest (yellow) has a ratio of 1.48, meaning the larger upward trend is 1.48 times bigger than its smaller downward trend. If we take this ratio and apply it to the next downward trend (green ) then you get the first red target bubble which was missed with the 1.48 ratio.
The ratio between the green is 1.27, which means the larger upward green is 1.27 times larger than the smaller downward . If you take that ratio and apply it to the incomplete pattern then you get the predicted blue circle. If you apply the first, larger ratio of the initial pattern (yellow ) then you end up with the second red target circle.
The lines are drawn with similar angles. I couldn’t get the angles exact with Trading View, but they are pretty darn close and given that this is a rough prediction, I’d say they are accurate within the reason of this analysis.
Also note that using Fibonacci Retracements, using the green downward and using the blue downward trend, it creates overlapping 1.618 retracements. This is important as it is near the target red circles.
The Target prices :
Blue Circle: About 1312 May 22-May26
Second Red Circle: About 1322 May 22-May 26 perhaps even May 29, or 30 (that Mon or Tues )
1. 1618 Fib Retrace: About 1333 Mid June.
I am most confident about the 1312 ish range as the pattern has fallen just short of either past 1.618 or .618 retracements indicating the trend runs out of steam early.
A scenario with fundamentals would be that it hits one of the first two targets, most likely the blue target, runs out of steam shortly then news could kick in where the Fed decides not raise rates in June, which would take gold to its fib retracement levels of 1333 in Mid June.
***One more thing to help you read the chart. Red font labels are the distance and angle of the downward trends, green being the upward.