ICmarkets

Our take on gold's current movements...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
321 0 2
Weekly view: Following the break above the weekly supply at 1223.1-1202.6 last week, the gold             market sold off taking back 50% of the prior week’s gains. Assuming that the sellers continue to show strength this week, we may see price challenge the swing low 1170.3, or even the weekly demand area seen just below it at 1130.1-1168.6.

Daily view: Over the past few days, we have been seeing the buyers struggle to maintain a position within the daily swap area seen at 1215.0-1204.5. In the case that this zone is engulfed this week, this could set the stage for a continuation move south down towards a daily buy zone at 1170.3-1184.0, which boasts additional support from a daily trendline extended from the low 1142.5.

4hr view: From this viewpoint, it appears that the 4hr scale has entered into a phase of consolidation between 1212.7 and 1203.2. Trading the limits of this range is certainly a viable strategy in our opinion. However, we would highly recommend waiting for the lower timeframes to confirm buying/selling strength exists at the range limit before risking capital, since fakeouts are a common occurrence within range bound markets such as this.

Ultimately, our team is watching for this consolidation to be violated since there is room for price to move a considerable amount up/down to the next area of interest. The green areas represent the distance we believe price will travel following a convincing break. That being said though, we have absolutely no intention in buying or selling any breakout unless price retests the limit barrier (as per the green arrows), and shows some form of lower timeframe confirming price action.

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: 1203.2 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms the range limit).
• Sells: 1212.7 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms the range limit).

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