Our take on Gold....

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Although Gold             posted a weekly loss of around $11 by the week’s end at 1227.7, we still consider it positive. The reason for why comes from seeing price respond so beautifully from not only the weekly broken supply (now demand) at 1205.6-1181.2, but also the recently broken weekly wedge resistance (now support) taken from the high 1485.3. In the event that bids remain stable here, there’s a possibility that the yellow metal may cross paths with supply seen overhead at 1307.4-1280.0 sometime soon.

Casting our line down to the daily chart shows us that upside is presently capped by supply drawn from 1273.9-1260.2, whilst downside is supported by a demand coming in at 1181.4-1200.7. A break above this supply will immediately land one within touching distance of the aforementioned weekly supply. Meanwhile, a break below the current demand could open the floodgates for a move down to weekly support penciled in at 1157.4.

Moving down one more level the H4, Friday’s price action was relatively mellow in comparison to Thursdays. Session highs were recorded at 1234.4, and lows came in at 1219.8. Judging from where the weekly timeframe bounced last week, and considering there is room on the daily timeframe to move higher (see above), our team favors the buy-side of the market this week.

Therefore, the areas we have noted down on our watch list are as follows:

• The H4 demand at 1200.6-1207.8, which sits on top of the daily demand mentioned above at 1181.4-1200.7.
• On the assumption that the above area caves in, however, the next buy zone can be seen at 1181.4-1187.4 – another H4 demand which happens to be positioned within the extreme of the above said daily demand.

Should price reach these areas this week, a bounce is highly likely in our opinion. To be on the safe side though, we’d recommend entering alongside a lower timeframe buy signal.

If Gold             continues to advance without crossing swords with the above said areas of value, we’ll then watch for the H4 supply at 1239.9-1235.7 to be taken out. This would, in effect, be our cue to begin watching for a confirmed retest of the supply as demand, with a target objective seen at the H4 resistance at 1256.2 – placed just below the above said daily supply.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1200.6-1207.8 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area). 1181.4-1187.4 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area). Watch for offers to be consumed around the 1239.9-1235.7 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation required).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
interesting thank you!
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