Gold - Buy? Do the contrary than what perfect TA suggests

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
545 19 5
Falling to 900 would be too academic.

The chart screams short because of the Apr13 experience. It may be a beautiful trap.

My Feeling: buy

How: stop 1110 on close

I was neutral in 2014 as i felt a collapse was possible.
Then i tried to buy 1275 stoped 1230 - lost 80bp
Then i tried to buy 1206 in smaller size and i am still long - will stop 1120 (would lose another 80bp)

if it jumps it will be a long ride up and I will add on the way.
My target is 1026 based on this analysis and the spike of 3 March 2008 - but I have both long and short positions!
Ah, that would be an even more complex scenario - yes falling here but not completing - Possible too.
It would allow shorts not to lose money.
There is a fight between long term investors who keep buying it and hoping and the day traders who do TA and mostly believe in the short.
pezq YaKa
The flip area between September and October 2009 also gives some strength to this scenario
Yes - Many good plans with different targets. 1150, 1000, 900, 820.
Question of money management and statistical hit ratio.
I could be wrong here. Let's see.
Hi YaKa. Any proof for your 'long term investors buying' thesis? Because i can't see that. Thx
YaKa PRO fxdump
Well I don't need proof. Anybody that I know who is reach has real estate, Equities and gold as asset mix.
They are not trading, they dont have stops... they think it protects against inflation in the long run and that's enough for them.
+2 Reply
Read "rich" sry
pezq YaKa
And lets face it....the massive QE that has been launched worldwide is undoubtedly intended to be inflationary in nature. It's an unprecedented experiment. If a bush fire starts it's going to be very difficult to stop. It will be very interesting to hear what the FedRes says later. We have push pull between lack of demand from retiring baby boomers and QE. So as insurance buying gold makes sense.
+2 Reply
You are correct. Gold outperformed stocks for a long stretch there and it was selling gold to buy stocks (because gold had outperformed) to rebalance the portfolio. Now you buy gold after selling off stocks and bonds. You just keep doing it in increments as time goes on. By the way, Gold and other "safe-haven" investments should be not much more than 10% to 20% of a portfolio (if you are really scared).
+1 Reply
The decline has been really choppy and triangular, so it's definitely a correction from the longer term rally. There is a possibility that the support at 1113 holds, but it's a long shot considering technicals alone, see my chart for reference on the subject:
Gold is in a downtrend: Mapping support levels

AUDUSD: Downtrend expiry is close

USDSGD: The top could be in, or close

Add to this Yacine's view on the Nikkei, SPX, DAX and USDJPY, and we have a potentially very bearish USD scenario.
+1 Reply
timwest PRO IvanLabrie
How about you post some of these charts directly? Nice work.
+1 Reply
I haven't published any other than usdsgd, audusd and xauusd. I'll post those later today.
Big bounce on $HG monthly from 200ema as well........ reflation trade back on?
YaKa PRO Justiceisfalse
YaKa PRO Justiceisfalse
Copper ok.
Not sure about the reflation but maybe metals are not diving yet (anymore).
maybe you are right, however, i got pic derived from my previous idea
which speaks short

weekly pic is still weak, in daily, volume at support 1150 was nothing extra, now at ema34 retrace, good place for short reentry, same daily popup as in Jan15 occured in Sep12, just before breakdown, we are well below ema200, but needs to clear 1145/1155 poc zone

check site timingcharts.com you can display commercial shorts or net position, they had huge short positions in Jan15 decreasing sharply but still holding a lot

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