[1.23#3] Gold: Back in 1980

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Now that we can finalize our views on Gold             ( cf             . "1.23#1", "1.23#2"). Here is the summary of what happened in the last decades.

January 1980 - Gold             peaks at $850 with utmost joy, which is followed by a sudden yet long-lasting decline.

August 1999 - The period of recession lasts 19 years. Elliotticians would call this recession a zigzag , at the end of which the price finds support at $251.95, which is the beginning of the most recent uptrend in Gold's history.

March 2008 - It was a suspicious case when Gold             for the first time trades above $1K. Ivestors were both in joy and panic at that time. The sell-off resulted in more than 30% loss in Gold's value, but even this huge event was just a little spot in the unquenchable uprising of the precious metal.

October 2009 - The price action happened then might not be surprising for many, who did not look at far back enough in this historical chart. However, it was of utmost importance that Gold's two peaks, that is, those in 1980 and 2008, formed a support line (the purple line). It was in October 2009 that this support was broken. The curious should check how monthly RSI (14) reacted the changes within this battle.

February 2010 - The battle which goes on here has still something to do with March 2008 high. I told that the huge sell-off following the peak above $1K was a small thing, and this fact has been proven by the broken resistance's acting acting as a support this time. Notice how strong is the upward spike.

September 2011 - This is where Gold             made its most recent peak at the vicinity of $2K. The flow started with the low in August 1999 has come to an end at this price. How do I know that the uptrend has ended? Because one of the key supports (the green line) is broken during 2013.

July 2015 - We have arrived at a very recent time, a time when our purple line has been revisited. One should here check the monthly RSI (14) and compare the trend's losing strength with the RSI of the rising strength of the uptrend in October 2009. So this must have been the reason of the strong upward spike followed the revisit. However, the battle still continues. And to understand what is going on there, it was a must to go back in 1980.

Is this the end of the recession beginning from September 2011? I don't think any experienced trader would think so. But this might be the end of the first leg of the recession. From the Elliott Wave Theory perspective, a possible wave count might involve a 5-wave             down beginning from September 2011, the C of which is an ending diagonal .

I will not, however, take an action until there is a clear result.
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