I think we entering multi years of deflationary environment.
I am currently long gold but this is very tactical.
At 1340, I will reverse into strategic short... Target 980/730.
I would take profit around 1000 and use more downside to build long term long.
i am playing with spreadcharts in tw platform and have found some very interesting correlations (like bund/dax - btw. working so far)
here posting gc/gvz chart, looks to me like volatility is not going to explode right now, and also has not reached the extreme band like before, interesting are also the ema200 crosses, who knows, maybe gc is building some kind of bottom (correction), but it could take quite a long time (according to cci and ema 200 status)
there could be also opposite scenario as always - slow gradual melt down, in case cci will fall deeper below zero - acceleration of vol needed to reach the red band
maybe i should start to think about trading more in vol, sd and math terms ...
As humans, our emotional time span does not enable to apprehend the market correctly... We unconsciously think, in various time units, that was was prevailing in the last 3 units will be true for ever.. true in daily, weeky, yearly etc...
Taking that into account you will realise that the norm for gold has been sub 1000 forever before the last 6 years.
as per the fundamentals:
1) the trend is down and it fell 800 dollars already... so 200usd is next door really.
2) there is defation.
3) i have the feeling that (2) is going to accelerate with a shock that's coming after the summer.