YaKa

Gold - Kiss 200 Week and Collapse

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
1188 21 21

I think we entering multi years of deflationary environment.

I am currently long gold             but this is very tactical.

At 1340, I will reverse into strategic short... Target 980/730.

I would take profit around 1000 and use more downside to build long term long.

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YaKa PRO Stockman
I think i am a wolf.. you are the sheep:) I ll give you my gold at 1340
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i see it a little different, now not sure about 1340 anymore, maybe we turned at 1308 (poc) already, at 1220 occured break of trendline, but could be false (lateral), we can easy revisit levels below 1200, i think, like 1196 poc of upswing, watching 1232 immediate support
snapshot
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YaKa PRO look4edge
Good chart - I wont hold the long below last bottom in close. thx for sharing
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YaKa PRO look4edge
Very good chart actually...
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nice to know you like it as i respect you and your pro skills :)

i am playing with spreadcharts in tw platform and have found some very interesting correlations (like bund/dax - btw. working so far)

here posting gc/gvz chart, looks to me like volatility is not going to explode right now, and also has not reached the extreme band like before, interesting are also the ema200 crosses, who knows, maybe gc is building some kind of bottom (correction), but it could take quite a long time (according to cci and ema 200 status)

there could be also opposite scenario as always - slow gradual melt down, in case cci will fall deeper below zero - acceleration of vol needed to reach the red band

snapshot


maybe i should start to think about trading more in vol, sd and math terms ...
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YaKa PRO look4edge
keep it simple... use all else as atmosphere assessment, focus on the price.
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Nice 200 week exponential moving average there.... You've got me agreeing with you here....
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YaKa PRO timwest
yes. i think the 200w ema if reached is worth a good try down.
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Agree, nicely done. But, wow sub 1000 seems like a long reach. What is your thinking fundamentally with that? If interest rates come to fruition?
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YaKa PRO smitheric1970
You seem to forget that your 1000 level was not ever reached before 2008...
As humans, our emotional time span does not enable to apprehend the market correctly... We unconsciously think, in various time units, that was was prevailing in the last 3 units will be true for ever.. true in daily, weeky, yearly etc...

Taking that into account you will realise that the norm for gold has been sub 1000 forever before the last 6 years.

as per the fundamentals:
1) the trend is down and it fell 800 dollars already... so 200usd is next door really.
2) there is defation.
3) i have the feeling that (2) is going to accelerate with a shock that's coming after the summer.
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Very interesting, you definitely have my attention. I would be very interested in a /KC chart by you if you have any interest.
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YaKa PRO smitheric1970
Coffee.. posted something a few weeks ago.. still same picture.. dig it out..
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Central banks cannot resist creating unbacked fiat though. Without gold backing there is no limit. If we enter a deflation the central banks will attempt to print their way out! Gold and loaves of bread could reach silly numbers.
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YaKa PRO afbitcoins
This reasoning has intellectually been holding for a while but did not materialize so far, to the contrary. What most people miss: no inflation without velocity (inflation = M x Velocity).... There could be a crash and then later some ridiculous inflation (in a few years that is).
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afbitcoins afbitcoins
one things for sure interesting times we live in
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YaKa PRO smitheric1970
SmithEric, for you
as you can see from the following chart.. retracing 61%/76% is not uncommon... 61% would be 888... not impossible at all
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888 would touching on the top made in 1979, an interesting area then.
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Thank you, I have been looking at more long term charts lately, it definitely makes sense. I agree with you on the coming deflation and most commodities will probably go to 2008 lows or lower. Thanks for reminding me to look further back, great chart!
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i think here can continue down this is gold can go down but USDOLLAR maybe down i think only! so i trade only i see!

XAUUSD
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Agree with you. Astronacci sees the same thing. 930 for the T/P
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