IvanLabrie

XAUUSD: Megaphone patterns

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
4 months ago
Very interestingly, Gold             (and stocks ) have been largely sideways this year, and it's no surprise what a sideways market causes: frustration, specially for technical traders (and even worse those who trade breakouts). A key element in this year's price action is that prices have been tracing expanding patterns, where price breaks the previous extreme and suddenly turns 180º and heads back to the other end of the range. This makes for a very hard landscape to trade in, and forces the analyst to adopt a more defensive stance and quickly detect which strategies are working, and which aren't, before the drawdowns become too big.
It's possible gold             breaks below support and tests the previous swing low, and the same is true of the S&P500             index . It appears to be tracing a similar pattern, and currently looks toppy             . It'd be a strange ocurrence, to have the market and gold             correlate, but that seems to be the case here. Conclusion: gold             is a risk asset? Increasing risk of a Fed rate hike, and deflationary crisis fears looming?

Right now, the clearest timeframe has been the weekly and monthly for gold             , and I will wait for the daily to look very bearish before going long gold             again, to rejoin the potential uptrend seen in these larger timeframes. For the time being, I'd reccomend standing aside, or looking to short it if we break support here. Rgmov is warning bulls to be cautious with size, since it has broken down ahead of price, so, do your due diligence.

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Ivan Labrie

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Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance             on such information.
4 months ago
Comment: I'm long gold as of today, entered at 1327.53 after the bearish momentum faded, stop loss at 1310.83, aiming for new yearly highs
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
edmunch
4 months ago
Hi Ivan!
Do you know the reason why Gold had that sharp drop at the end of 2016 and then it recovered it??
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP edmunch
4 months ago
Which drop?
The reasons for the moves are complex fundamental developments.
Sometimes they can be logically deducted, but it's never certain.
Reply
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