Gold: Technical outlook and review...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
240 0 4
Weekly view: Following the close above the weekly supply at 1223.1-1202.6 last week, the buyers already attempted to trade higher this week, but as you can see failed miserably. Overall, we still believe that the long-term trend on Gold             is still firmly south, and will remain that way in our opinion until price closes above the weekly trendline resistance extended from the high 1488.0.

Daily view: The small rebound seen from the fresh daily supply area coming in at 1236.6-1226.9 on Monday extended lower amid yesterday’s session. This move has now firmly placed price deep within the jaws of a daily swap area seen at 1215.0-1204.5.

4hr view: Yesterday’s sessions saw price collectively take out not only the small 4hr demand area at 1221.5-1223.5, but also the 4hr swap level seen below it at 1212.7. It was only when we saw price collapse into a 4hr swap area seen at 1207.3-1204.7 that converges nicely with a Fibonacci 0.50 retracement number, did we see any buying interest.

Buying from this 4hr swap area would very likely give you a clear run of profit up to at least 1212.7. Ideally though, for a better risk/reward, you would want to see price consume this number and trade up to 1221.5-1223.5. By entering long from here, you have the daily swap area at 1215.0-1204.5 backing you, but potential selling opposition from the weekly supply area at 1223.1-1202.6 against you. On that account, we would highly recommend waiting for the lower timeframes to prove buying strength exists at this area before risking capital here.

On the other hand, a violation of the current 4hr swap area today could stimulate a sell off down towards the 4hr swap area seen at 1197.4-1195.3. Should this occur, we’d only enter short here if price retested this area as supply and displayed some sort of sell signal on the lower timeframes. By entering short, you would effectively be trading shoulder-to-shoulder with the weekly timeframe , and at that point (the daily swap area would be taken out likely by then) also trading in line with the daily timeframe as well.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1207.3-1204.7 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1203.8).

• Sells: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

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