As for the butterfly, I'm a bit puzzled because point B of a butterfly should sit at 78.6; 61.8 gives a Gartley or a crab. IF it's a Gartley, then D should be at 78.6 XA (strict rules of a Gartley), which gives 1427 on my chart. If it's a crab, then D sits at 1.618 of XA which gives 1451. As a whole, I'll keep in mind your analysis coz I can always learn from different standpoints. Thanks
i especially do not give too much importance to what scott carney says in his volume 1 book on harmonic trading as he derived everything from other technicians anyway, and then tries to turn the harmonic structure interpretation into a science, which it isn't by any stretch of the imagination: my point is, i have seen all sorts of Gartley derived structures that did not match carney's so-called 'must-bes' and they still worked fine.
in any case, my chart is totally hypothetical and you/i might be right within god knows what margin of error. OR come 8.30 am EST when the news is released and gold will nose dive from where ever it happens to be. therefore, i plan on totally ignoring both fundamental and technical factors and only rely on the trusted bracket order strategy: 1 stop BUY and 1 stop SELL order (or OCO if your platform allows it) entered in the system 30 secs before the news comes out. not too wide a SL, but not too tight either.
one or the other, one of these orders will get triggered and if gold moves fast and furious in 1 direction, then you won't need to worry about both orders SL being taken out. :D