The publication of US inflation was surprisingly strong: the US CPI index had advanced to 3.4% - the highest value within three months. The biggest price hike was associated with services, and energy prices have displayed an uptick for the first time since September 2023.
The reaction of markets was nervous: tech stock had plummeted, though this drop was later trimmed by the strong responsive buying activity, with a notable strength for the Nasdaq index.
The reaction of the dollar index was, however, muted, as the current strength of inflation has a very limited influence on the yields of treasury bonds and probabilities of interest rate hikes in 2024. The current consensus in the market assumes that the Fed will most likely turn dovish in 2024, so traders are presumably bearish on the US dollar.
Theoretically, metals - particularly Gold and Silver should benefit from this situation, but we’ve seen a different reaction. Unlike Nasdaq, Gold had a modest buying response after the initial drop from CPI publication. Does it have a chance to recover and continue to rally?
Inspite of the choppiness of price action, Gold and Silver still might provide traders with decent bullish swings. Let’s figure out the potential scenarios in this review.
Gold
Gold has been consolidating in narrow choppy trading between $2015 and $2050 since the beginning of January. This reaction doesn’t seem bearish too, though for now, Gold is not showing any signs of responsive buying and is driven mostly by negative correlation with the US dollar and lack internal drivers.
Though, it might react on some positive economic news, such as corporate earnings, for example, which are around the corner. The bullish signal would be a big day up, after which the price can advance to $2080.
Silver
Silver, unlike Gold, was not displaying any rising trend in 2023, but rather consolidated in a wide trading range. With a performance like that, the normal activity would assume potential testing of an area below the previous intermediate-term low of 22.48. Should it bounce back after this test, buyers might take control for the short-term period until the price reaches $23.50 - $24 zone: the next technical resistance.
The reaction of markets was nervous: tech stock had plummeted, though this drop was later trimmed by the strong responsive buying activity, with a notable strength for the Nasdaq index.
The reaction of the dollar index was, however, muted, as the current strength of inflation has a very limited influence on the yields of treasury bonds and probabilities of interest rate hikes in 2024. The current consensus in the market assumes that the Fed will most likely turn dovish in 2024, so traders are presumably bearish on the US dollar.
Theoretically, metals - particularly Gold and Silver should benefit from this situation, but we’ve seen a different reaction. Unlike Nasdaq, Gold had a modest buying response after the initial drop from CPI publication. Does it have a chance to recover and continue to rally?
Inspite of the choppiness of price action, Gold and Silver still might provide traders with decent bullish swings. Let’s figure out the potential scenarios in this review.
Gold
Gold has been consolidating in narrow choppy trading between $2015 and $2050 since the beginning of January. This reaction doesn’t seem bearish too, though for now, Gold is not showing any signs of responsive buying and is driven mostly by negative correlation with the US dollar and lack internal drivers.
Though, it might react on some positive economic news, such as corporate earnings, for example, which are around the corner. The bullish signal would be a big day up, after which the price can advance to $2080.
Silver
Silver, unlike Gold, was not displaying any rising trend in 2023, but rather consolidated in a wide trading range. With a performance like that, the normal activity would assume potential testing of an area below the previous intermediate-term low of 22.48. Should it bounce back after this test, buyers might take control for the short-term period until the price reaches $23.50 - $24 zone: the next technical resistance.