FX_IDC:XAUUSD   GOLD / US DOLLAR
122 1 1
We have just seen a huge collapse in Gold             , after a retest of KEY monthly support at 1890, and a 3 year descending trendline

Possible short at around the 1150 area, however, given the huge bearish pressure on Gold             , and the ramping up USD bullrun, this may not happen - however, we have a clear Doji on the weekly, a low test candle on the daily, a clear double bottom with MACD divergence on the weekly, and a test of the descending wedge.

Also possible is a break and retest of 1080, then collapsing to 984 S/R - Either way, this looks very bearish .

Downside targets are:
1st target: 1080
2nd target: 984

A retest of 1150 has the following confluence:
Technical:
With the dominant bearish trend , since mid 2011
1150 KEY support / resistance
Top of descending wedge pattern
Weekly 50/60 EMA's
Daily 200/250 EMA's
Fundamental:
Falling commodity prices
Lower exports, and therefore demand, from china
Falling global growth
USDollar             bull run shaping up
US rate hike whispers - particularly after last months great NFP report

Hopefully a clear weekly or daily entry signal occurs to allow a trade.
AlanSimpson
a year ago
How does the 1: 300 ratio of paper derivitives/physical gold available allow continual paper shorts?? AlanSimpson
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