GOLD: Resetting The Rocket For Another Blast Later

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
1053 1 22
Anatomy Of A Failed Trade

In my last post on Gold             , I made a really bad call in that I was very premature on calling for a retrace. I ended up losing hundreds of pips on that call. But as is my way of doing things, whenever I lose a trade, I go back to scratch and re-analyze the whole thing and see what I missed and what I did wrong. It's a hell of a lot of effort to do that but it's the only way to clear your mind and see things from a different perspective. So let's do that here and maybe you can also benefit from my re-analysis.

First, I'll explain what you are seeing in the main chart above. This is a 15M chart and for those of you who follow me, you know that I rarely go below a 1HR chart. But it was necessary in this case so as to be able to see clearly the reversal pattern that took place. It was a confirmed H&S pattern. You can see how the patterns defined this H&S pattern. I entered and my subscribers entered short @1294.15. So far it has already moved +137 pips. from our entry.

In this weekly chart, fairly obvious that Gold             is in a correction of that long down trend down. That means that this initial corrective wave should be the wave (A) of a 3-wave             correction and that this initial wave up should either be 3-waves or 5-waves. But regardless 3 or 5 waves, that area where I circled in purple is easily recognized as just consolidation within this initial wave up and that I should've recognized that there would be another move up from there. I didn't check back on this weekly chart before I had decide to sell and it cost me.

Here I marked where I sold before and just as I did, it blasted off to the upside. What I failed to do before I took the SHORT trade was to go back to the higher TF in the Daily chart and recount the waves. Had I done so, I would not have been so hasty in taking a SHORT trade against such a strong trend that OBVIOUSLY was not over.

Then I also failed to notice this POTENTIAL crab pattern that is now completed. Had I picked up on it, then I also would not have been so quick to have SHORTED Gold             when I did. But now that prices have completed that crab , now is the correct time to look for topping formations.

In my earlier post on Gold             when I took a SHORT position, I also had mis-identified the ending expanding diagonal which I am showing here. In that post, I had ended this EED             too soon. Here, I think I now have it correct.

So now that brings me to this 1HR chart where you see the breakdown of the subwaves of the wave 5 of (5) that I have marked. You can see a clear 5-wave             move up that is probably now completed. This I am now seeing as the completed wave (5) of the overall uptrend from the Daily Chart .

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Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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