In my last post on Gold , I made a really bad call in that I was very premature on calling for a retrace. I ended up losing hundreds of pips on that call. But as is my way of doing things, whenever I lose a trade, I go back to scratch and re-analyze the whole thing and see what I missed and what I did wrong. It's a hell of a lot of effort to do that but it's the only way to clear your mind and see things from a different perspective. So let's do that here and maybe you can also benefit from my re-analysis.
First, I'll explain what you are seeing in the main chart above. This is a 15M chart and for those of you who follow me, you know that I rarely go below a 1HR chart. But it was necessary in this case so as to be able to see clearly the reversal pattern that took place. It was a confirmed pattern. You can see how the patterns defined this pattern. I entered and my subscribers entered short @1294.15. So far it has already moved +137 pips. from our entry.
In this weekly chart, fairly obvious that Gold is in a correction of that long down trend down. That means that this initial corrective wave should be the wave (A) of a 3-wave correction and that this initial wave up should either be 3-waves or 5-waves. But regardless 3 or 5 waves, that area where I circled in purple is easily recognized as just consolidation within this initial wave up and that I should've recognized that there would be another move up from there. I didn't check back on this weekly chart before I had decide to sell and it cost me.
Here I marked where I sold before and just as I did, it blasted off to the upside. What I failed to do before I took the SHORT trade was to go back to the higher TF in the and recount the waves. Had I done so, I would not have been so hasty in taking a SHORT trade against such a strong trend that OBVIOUSLY was not over.
Then I also failed to notice this POTENTIAL that is now completed. Had I picked up on it, then I also would not have been so quick to have SHORTED Gold when I did. But now that prices have completed that , now is the correct time to look for topping formations.
In my earlier post on Gold when I took a SHORT position, I also had mis-identified the ending expanding diagonal which I am showing here. In that post, I had ended this EED too soon. Here, I think I now have it correct.
So now that brings me to this 1HR chart where you see the breakdown of the subwaves of the wave 5 of (5) that I have marked. You can see a clear 5-wave move up that is probably now completed. This I am now seeing as the completed wave (5) of the overall uptrend from the .
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