FOREXCOM:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Since monday GOLD made 61% retracement of 260-305 swing and landed allmost at the bottom of 25 august candle low (275). My buy since 260 is still open along with one sell for protecting purpouses ( Ive opened a sell after first bearish long H1 candle which broke EMA22 on H1 chart at monday evening EU time).

With D.Trump ready to change FED chair Yellen the fundamental outlook is not simple but as long as Trump want cheap US Dollar FED may take some steps in that direction. Analysts says that FED have a good weapon to induce Dollar movements. FED did three rounds of QE , buying mostly bonds when big short occured in 2008/2009, they was buying those bonds to control interest rates in crisis time. Now there are more and more rumors that they will want to sell it partially.

Daily TF presents three straights bearish candles but PA still holds in KC bands currently tested lower band with hittin 61% retr. As long as ADX is very low (14) signalling this drop is considered as a retrace only. On H4 TF ADX already started growing (37) but momentum parabolic action stands as close to highest and I will not risk sell here. Price stays under lower KC signalling bearish cycle. If PA will not get into 275-267 channel and stay above tomorrow/friday I will search for another buy. Last thing but most important is that main Fibonacci swing (206-360). After PA bounced of 61% we can see that it went to 38% (299) and maded that last 3 days retracement. It is very important imo to back up over 50% (281) and get that as a support. Breaking that lower is a signal to visit 61% again which is not good for bulls. Good luck and trade safe.