I am starting my analysis at the 'beginning' of the latest uptrend of $BTC with the first impulse on 2nd of April 2019 which broke the 200D MA.
The impulse came after 3 months of low volatility and accumulation. It is interesting to highlight that the end of the bear trend for $BTC happened inline with the 'bottom' of the stock market around end of Dec 2018.
Both 'bottoms' (stocks and crypto) were formed, in my opinion, mainly from the fact that around Dec 2018 FED started turning dovish again and ditched their plans for further rate hikes, meaning new cheap money will flood the system and open debt will not become more expensive in 2019 as it was planned before.
Markets started pricing in the new stimulus and sentiment turned positive for many asset classes, including crypto which was just leaving the 'depression' zone.
In May 2019 $BTC entered into a parallel channel that was broken only during the 2019 highs of 13.8k $. At writing time $BTC is retesting again the lower border of the channel.
However, last daily close was inside the channel and at the golden 0.618 of my favorite Fib Speed Resistance Fan (circled in yellow below) . The lower border of the parallel channel also happens to match the 0.75 line of the tool making stronger level in my point of view.
All this looks to me like an 'engineered liquidity' move and shakeout. If my thought is right, daily close on 24th of July will not be out of the parallel channel and we should have only a wick out of the channel.
Now to add timing into the equation. I can split (in my head) the move into 4 almost equal moves of around 35 Days each. This is pretty much the time $BTC needed to retest the lower border of the channel and bounce off.
I acknowledge the fact that this the first time $BTC is re-testing the lower border after a strong bounce and I prefer to look at it as a market makers move rather than sign of weakness.
To strengthen my timing case I add Fib Time Zone based on the length of the first wave (as I see it). It is easily visible how well it is matching the other tests (vertical lines 2 & 3) of the lower border of the channel.
What is also visible is that there are two more ~35 days 'cycles' until line 5 of the Fib Time Zone. One around 20th of Aug and one around 20th of September 2019.
Now, with a cleaned chart I will lay out my thoughts about $BTC price outlook:
If 24th of July daily closes inside the channel then this plan will be valid in my point of view. Price will seek a re-test on June 2019 highs of 13.5k$ (around 20th of Aug), gets sharply rejected to test again the lower border of the channel at ~11.2k$ (again around 20th of Aug). Then it will test the last FIB Time Zone level (0.25) of the whole bear market at 14.4k$ around 4th of September (the red down arrow below) to get rejected for the last touch of the lower channel border around 20th of September and ~13.2k$.
After 20th of Septeber, if the ~13.2k $ holds I think $BTC will break the ~14.4k$ level and go for the 20k$ ATH towards beginning of 2020 (~Jan).
All this is just my view and most probably I will not trade this plan with precision I tried to lay it out. I just enjoy staring at charts and trying to understand what they have to say :).
The impulse came after 3 months of low volatility and accumulation. It is interesting to highlight that the end of the bear trend for $BTC happened inline with the 'bottom' of the stock market around end of Dec 2018.
Both 'bottoms' (stocks and crypto) were formed, in my opinion, mainly from the fact that around Dec 2018 FED started turning dovish again and ditched their plans for further rate hikes, meaning new cheap money will flood the system and open debt will not become more expensive in 2019 as it was planned before.
Markets started pricing in the new stimulus and sentiment turned positive for many asset classes, including crypto which was just leaving the 'depression' zone.
In May 2019 $BTC entered into a parallel channel that was broken only during the 2019 highs of 13.8k $. At writing time $BTC is retesting again the lower border of the channel.
However, last daily close was inside the channel and at the golden 0.618 of my favorite Fib Speed Resistance Fan (circled in yellow below) . The lower border of the parallel channel also happens to match the 0.75 line of the tool making stronger level in my point of view.
All this looks to me like an 'engineered liquidity' move and shakeout. If my thought is right, daily close on 24th of July will not be out of the parallel channel and we should have only a wick out of the channel.
Now to add timing into the equation. I can split (in my head) the move into 4 almost equal moves of around 35 Days each. This is pretty much the time $BTC needed to retest the lower border of the channel and bounce off.
I acknowledge the fact that this the first time $BTC is re-testing the lower border after a strong bounce and I prefer to look at it as a market makers move rather than sign of weakness.
To strengthen my timing case I add Fib Time Zone based on the length of the first wave (as I see it). It is easily visible how well it is matching the other tests (vertical lines 2 & 3) of the lower border of the channel.
What is also visible is that there are two more ~35 days 'cycles' until line 5 of the Fib Time Zone. One around 20th of Aug and one around 20th of September 2019.
Now, with a cleaned chart I will lay out my thoughts about $BTC price outlook:
If 24th of July daily closes inside the channel then this plan will be valid in my point of view. Price will seek a re-test on June 2019 highs of 13.5k$ (around 20th of Aug), gets sharply rejected to test again the lower border of the channel at ~11.2k$ (again around 20th of Aug). Then it will test the last FIB Time Zone level (0.25) of the whole bear market at 14.4k$ around 4th of September (the red down arrow below) to get rejected for the last touch of the lower channel border around 20th of September and ~13.2k$.
After 20th of Septeber, if the ~13.2k $ holds I think $BTC will break the ~14.4k$ level and go for the 20k$ ATH towards beginning of 2020 (~Jan).
All this is just my view and most probably I will not trade this plan with precision I tried to lay it out. I just enjoy staring at charts and trying to understand what they have to say :).