BTC Between Powerful Support and Resistance Zones
This is a follow-up to my previous posts that explained the micro perspective of the current sequence. Both scenarios described there played out nicely.
My new chart has a more mid-termish view on current price action and zones.
I've only included the mid-term relevant fib levels and to point out where significant resistance and support lies.
- Yellow trendline: Is the yearly from Jan '15 (capitulation candle). I copied it from the chart into the Bitmex one. From price action around the , you can see that it works as well.
- Blue fib levels: Are long-term fib levels and extremely significant
- Teal fib levels: Are mid-term fib levels
- Boxes: Show zones (with lots of fib levels / / highs & lows)
- Red box: Decision box where triangle break will occur
My basic outlook:
- BTC is and attacks the 200W-EMA (and the fib levels around it)
- The path of least resistance is upwards imo , so we could see a break with somewhere in the red decision box
- We could certainly see a fakout or a pullback before another attack on 4130-4250
- If BTC fails and breaks out of the triangle to the downside, we can expect significant support at 3548-3681
A few words of importance: Don't underestimate the support of the yearly (see my previous posts) - even if BTC dips below it (even hundreds of dollars), it might rise above it soon after
I'm going to update this thread with different charts during the next days.
Here's a chart with the correct trendline and the original from Bitstamp (with the 100% accurate trendline).
As you can see, we have found support on the trendline and are on top of some nice support levels, such as the triangle bottom trendline, the 50D-SMA that we broke earlier this week, and a significant 0.5 fib level.
If this support holds, we can expect a retest of the support zone we broke through today, starting at 3925.
If it breaks, we could see further downside to the next big support zone starting at 3681.
Let's see if this support zone holds. If not, I have to reanalyze.
On the other hand, we haven't yet seen a touch of the .618 support line from ATH (trend-based fib extension). So it's not unlikely we come down to the 3-2.8k area.
Therefore, I remain neutral for now and observe the situation.