Nish19

BTC Between Powerful Support and Resistance Zones

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Hi guys,

This is a follow-up to my previous posts that explained the micro perspective of the current sequence. Both scenarios described there played out nicely.

My new chart has a more mid-termish view on current price action and support and resistance zones.

I've only included the mid-term relevant fib levels and trendlines to point out where significant resistance and support lies.

Legend:
- Yellow trendline: Is the yearly trendline from Jan '15 (capitulation candle). I copied it from the Bitstamp chart into the Bitmex one. From price action around the trendline , you can see that it works as well.
- Blue fib levels: Are long-term fib levels and extremely significant
- Teal fib levels: Are mid-term fib levels
- Boxes: Show support and resistance zones (with lots of fib levels / trendlines / highs & lows)
- Red box: Decision box where triangle break will occur

My basic outlook:
- BTC is bullish and attacks the 200W-EMA (and the fib levels around it)
- The path of least resistance is upwards imo , so we could see a break with volume somewhere in the red decision box
- We could certainly see a fakout or a pullback before another attack on 4130-4250
- If BTC fails and breaks out of the triangle to the downside, we can expect significant support at 3548-3681

A few words of importance: Don't underestimate the support of the yearly trendline (see my previous posts) - even if BTC dips below it (even hundreds of dollars), it might rise above it soon after

I'm going to update this thread with different charts during the next days.

Trade safe.
Jan 10
Comment: Looks like we are going to test the support range at 3548-3681 if the bottom trendline breaks.

Jan 10
Comment: I've corrected the position of the longterm trendline (yellow) for Bitmex by using the exact coordinates by the Bitstamp chart. Should have done that earlier, since a delta of about $0.X in 2015 (by placing the trendline not exactly right) resulted in $50-100 divergences in 2019.

Here's a chart with the correct trendline and the original from Bitstamp (with the 100% accurate trendline).

As you can see, we have found support on the trendline and are on top of some nice support levels, such as the triangle bottom trendline, the 50D-SMA that we broke earlier this week, and a significant 0.5 fib level.

If this support holds, we can expect a retest of the support zone we broke through today, starting at 3925.

If it breaks, we could see further downside to the next big support zone starting at 3681.

Jan 10
Comment: Original Bitstamp chart:

Jan 10
Comment: We have fallen into the support zone, and the long liq slide even managed to make this wick through. Bitmex seems to have lags to process stops (the stop of my 100 contracts test position took 15 seconds to process, and I made 2x the loss), and tbh it looks a bit fishy to me. Wouldn't be the first time that Bitmex is involved in fraudulent activities.

Let's see if this support zone holds. If not, I have to reanalyze.

Jan 10
Comment: We're back at the .618 fib Bollinger Band, it's crucial for short-term development to hold this line, otherwise we could see a drop to the blue line (1.0 = 3 standard deviations of the 200D-VWMA).

Jan 10
Comment: Currently finding support on the line, but it's not clear if it's only temporary. We're below the yearly trendline now, so price could very well be pulled up again.

On the other hand, we haven't yet seen a touch of the .618 support line from ATH (trend-based fib extension). So it's not unlikely we come down to the 3-2.8k area.

Therefore, I remain neutral for now and observe the situation.

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