BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Today, as we all may have seen, BTC had a huge $1000 breaking up candle. Also signicifant volume came. During this flight BTC smashed a few important resistance levels, such as trend line which has been forming for the last 4 months, also $4200 / $4400 resistance levels and finally EMA100/EMA200. Finally BTC got almost to Fib618 and 1D EMA500. Currently is trading at around $4800 where Fib500 can be found.

What we can expect now? The market is in a positive mood and future is bright for the Bitcoin .
a) Daily close above EMA200 followed by a few days consolidation = target area $5800-$6100.
b) Now significant consolidation at current levels and BTC will continue upward = target Fib616 $5400.
c) Re-test of 4months trend line ($4200).
Bullish invalidation level $3990.

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Comment: Let's start with indicators:
Bitcoin has been rising today to 1D EMA500 ($5160) and after short consolidation get through it.
1D RSI looks crazy, 89 level :-), it is new RSI ATH. The market is overbought and this can be the bearish sign. It's time be more careful.

1H RSI bounced off from 70 level and is moving upward. But, pay attention to forming Bearish Divergence. The price is making HH, but RSI is making LH.
1H MACD histogram is green with bullish crossover.

Let's continue with price action signs. As I wrotte before, Bitcoin reached EMA500. Also Fib618 golden zone can be found there and upward trend line (yellow line). So, here we have quite a lot of resistance levels. Now, so it seems that now is the time for correction. I guess, Bitcoin will respects Fib500 ($5000) as a support and after consolidation it will continues upward to main resistance zone between $5770 -$6100. If 5K fails, 4.5K-4.2K will be next support zone. Invalidation level of current uptrend is updated to $4190.
Comment: Yesterday mentioned resistance zone works well and the price of Bitcoin is decreasing. Expected $5K resistance didn't work at all. Currently bitcoin is trading slightly above $4.8K. Based on EMAs, further support could be at level $4.6K where 1D EMA200 is located. However, in the past EMA200 didn't significantly affect bitcoin as support, so we can't rely on EMA200. $4.5K seems to be an interesting target because there is the Fib 0.5 of the last move up, but the $4.6K-$4.2K seems to be more attractive because a few more significant Fib levels are located there, especially Fib 0.382 and $4414 at the last high.

Quick look at indicators. First look at 1D - MACD remains bullish, however the histogram no longer increases significantly. RSI turned to downtrend and is heading to Level 70. As soon as the bitcoin reaches this level, it could bounce up. On smaller TF, Bitcoin is bearish.

Conclusion: Fib 0.5 battle hasn't been lost yet and bitcoin can still be consolidated here, but if it doesn't, my area of interest will be $4.6-$4.2 zone.
Comment: 1H chart:

Comment: another expanding wedge with potential target 5700-5800?
Comment: 4H EMAs - Bitcoin respect EMA20, which was tested as a dynamic resistance a few hours ago. The rest of EMAs have nice bullish shape and they're located below current price.

1D EMAs - EMA500 and EMA200 define S/R levels zone between $4.600 - $5150.

4H Indicators - RSI remains below 70 level and it is flat. So it's not very useful now. Neither MacD is much telling about further price developments

1D Indicators - daily RSI & MACD give me more hope of further growth.
Today also take a look at Ichi - interesting is Lagging Span (white line). It currently breaks resistance level. If it doesn't drop back into the Cloud, it will be the first confirmation that the bulls are still there. On the other hand, if BTC goes down, $4600-$4300 will be support zone.

Finally, look at the candlesticks on 1H chart. A few last candlestick are bearish - small bodies, long upper wicks. It indicates, that sellers willing to sell are still there. But every upper wick means that more and more sell orders are being liquidated and reistance getting weaker.

On 1D chart - Bitcoin respects Fib 0.382 and Fib 0.5 of the grater price movements. So, $4800 is a good support level.

Concluion - Bitcoin still offers good business potential and it's just a matter of time when Bitcoin attack major resistance zone between $5700-$6100. $4800 seems to be a solid support. If it fails, $4600 will be our next support.
Comment: Don't forget that good support zone is located at around $4800. Bitcoin already tested it successfully, but it is possible that we will see another wicks to this price zone.

1D chart EMAs: EMA500 still hold Bitcon down. As we all may have seen, BTC had another unsuccessful breakout attempt today.

RSI is moving to the south, MACD histogram is beginig turn to bearish:

Ichimoku's Lagging Span tests the top of the Ichi cloud. As I wrotte yesterady, if Lagging Span remains above the Cloud we will get good sign of upward trend continuation.
Comment: Bitcoin is back above $5K :-) And bulls have still a lot of power to attack major resistance zone between $5700-$6100.

Let's start with weekly chart - RSI, MACD & OBV are bullish with no doubt. Volume is also great and above the average. BB is also intresting - It's been 413 days since bitcoin was above BB's Basis. Based on BB, Bitcoin could go to $6400, but let's wait for things to evolve. It's to early to say - we go there.

On smaller time frames, like 4H. Bitcoin continue consolidating inside the triangle.

Summary - I guess, Bitcoin will go to test resistance zone fisrt before it goes down again, to $4600-$4300 support zone.
Comment: One more view:

Let's move to 1D EMAs - EMA500 resistance is being tested. Further interesting are several bullish crosses - EMA50 & EMA100 and EMA20/EMA200.
Comment: Ascending Triangle is performing. Bitcoin will go to major resistance zone when upward breakout happened.

1D EMA500 was seems to be broken.

Look at 1D OBV.
Comment: EMAs still prevents Bitcoin for rising and strengthens their role of resistance - EMA500 at $5160 on 1D chart and EMAs 50 and 100 at $5200 on 1W chart.
1D RSI, which was extremly oversold, is back in neutral zone below 70 level. 1D MACD is a one step from bearish crossover.
Bitcoin touched the the top of the channel and pullback to the bottom of the channel can happen.

Summary - bears getting control above the market and current consolidation will be followed by price decline. We have good resistance zone at around $5200, until this level will be broken, the upward trend continuation can not be expected. So $5200 is my invalidation level for this bearish analysis.
Comment: Today I want to focus mainly on candlesticks pattern.
Let's start with 1D chart - we have one big red candle obtains the previous one, so Bearish Engulfing is peforming.
Now, let's move to 1W chart - previous week was closed by Evening Star candlesticks pattern.
So, we have bearish candlesticks patterns on two significant time frames.

1D EMA500 ($5150) failure breakout confirmed this level as a significant resistance level.

1D MACD Histogram already turned to bearish. Lines performing bearish crossover at the moment. RSI is moving to the south.

Conclusion - dropdown is expected. 1st retrace could be expected at around $4800. But the main area of Bulls interests is the bottom of channel, between $4600-$4200.
Comment: Indicators:
Currently, BTC is trading above 1D EMA500 which has been playing resistance for several days. Whould be great if Bitcoin close above this mark daily, but i don't expect it.
Interesting are EMA50 and EMA200 on 1D TF. EMA200 remains flat and EMA50 heads up sharply. I'm curious if we see Golden Cross. If it happens, we will receive strong bullish signal. Generaly, watching EMAs, we can see more Bullish sentiment rather than Bearish. Btw. last time the price was above EMAs 262 days ago.

1D MACD Histogram getting more bearish. Crossover became more valid.

Price Action:
If we look on Bitcoin in more detail on 4H chart, we can see it respect upward channel as support and expected breakout hasn't happend yet. If we look at Fib, Bitcoin still respect Fib 0.236 of this local upward trend as a support. On the other hand, Fib Golden Zone of greater Fib Retr still prevent Bitcoin from upward continuation.

Summary - My setup is bearish and expect drop down to the first possible zone of retracement at around $4.8K. $5200 as a invalidation of my bearish setup remains active.
Comment: Bitcoin is above $5200. I wrotte a several days ago, that this level invalidates my bearish setup. But i stay tuned bearish. Let me to explain to you why.
1D Chart:
MACD histogram continues to confirm bearish trend. RSI is flat and below Level 70.
Despite my expectations, Bitcoin closed above EMA500 yesterday. Today, it continues holds above this level. Let's wait if BTC will stays above this level for several days.
But don't forget the upscending triangle. Until the price respects the bottom line of the triangle, we are safe.
Comment: So, Bitcon doesn't a doesn't want to drop down :-) It looks like Bitcoin likely test the major resistance zone before test previous support levels again.
No rocket science ... wait when the price break out of the Triangle.
Upward breakout = $5600 at least.
Downward breakout = $4600 at least.

Comment: Let's start with 1W Bitcoin's chart. Bitcoin stuck between EMA50 & MA50 (see yellow lines) and also we can see MA50 rejection.
RSI is flat and OVB as well. MACD histogram is still bullish. The top of BB's channel is located at $5800. The price is still growing slightly, but the volume is decreasing. Small candlestick bodies indicate the lack of liquidity and interest from traders.
1W chart looks like bulls getting tired and bears getting control on the market, but that doesn't necessarily mean we're going down.

Let's move to 1D chart. Bitcoin just crossed the top line of the Triangle, but remains in resistance zone, marked by the last high ($5473). So until this level is broken, we cannot expect further growth.

Summary - it is still possible that Bitcoin will visit the major resistance zone, but first we have to wait for the triangle breakout and because it is ascending triangle we should go up. However, as I wotte a few lines before, bulls look like getting more tired.
In any case, I recommend having a stop loss set and don't forget my call to buying opportunity between 4600-4200
Comment: Let's start with Moving Averages on 1D Bitcoin's chart.
MA50 and MA200 performing Golden Cross, which is strong bullish signal. But this Golden Cross hasn't been confirmed yet - Bitcoin needs to stay in this trend for several upcoming days. Also, MA200 is heading to the south which means that possibility of drop down is still in the game.

EMAs are more sober and the lines are coming closer to each other but they have not crossed

Now, move to technical indicators on 1D Bitcoin's chart.
RSI is back above 70 Level, so we are in dangerous area. Beware of the emerging bearish divergence - price makes HH but RSI LH. MACD is one step away from bullish crossover.

Finaly let's take a look at price action - ascending triangle broken and this short-term resistance turned into support. The price was stopped by the top line of the ascending channel and marked $5650.

Summary - the indicators signalize do not buy or likely sell.
Comment: 24.04.19
So, Bitcoin is down after 1W MA50 rejection and it is testing $5400 support level now.

1D MA50/200 Golden Cross is done, but MA200 still moving down.

RSI turned to the south and it is back below Level70. MACD remains bearish.

Summary - indicators remains bearish. If $5400 support fails, then Bitcoin will drop down.
Comment: On a weekly chart, we can see that Bitcoin is testing MA50 and if price breaks upward that dynamic resistance we could see some further upward trend.

Now, if we move to the daily chart and focuse on EMAs we can see that the price respects them as a dynamic support levels. Another interesting formation on the daily chart is that of a possible EMA50/200 golden cross.

If we stay on the daily chart and focuse on indicators. A several days ago, i ment RSI Bearish Divergence. This formation is valid until RSI and the price make HH. Currently RSI is back above Level70. If RSI successfully breaks upward that we could see further upward move. MACD remains bearish.

Summary - we can see mixed signals. On lower time frames Bitcoin looks good, so we could see upward trend continuation to major resistance zone, in short term. On the other hand, on higher TFs Bulls indicate exhaustion and major resistance is near. Also I don't expect that Bitcoin breaks this area on 1st attempt. So, that's why I will wait for next price action to became situation more clear.
Comment: Let's start with Moving Averages.
> On a weekly chart, Bitcoin remains below MA50 which is located at around $5500. If we swichted to EMAs, we can see that EMA50 and EMA100 also hold Bitcoin down.
> If we move to daily chart, we can see 50/200 Golden Crosses. Only with the difference that the MA200 is still pointing downwards.
> Finaly, if we move to 4H chart, we can that the most of Moving Averages are above the current price. Especially 100 & 50 values, which usually represent resistance levels.
> Conclusion to Moving Averages - do not buy!

Now let's look at a few technical indicators.
> On a weekly chart, MACD histogram remains bearish. RSI and OBV visibly facing downwards. On a daily chart, the situation si even more bearish.
> Conclusion on Indicators - do not buy!

Finally, let's look at some interesting pricing actions.
> On a weekly chart, I added some interesting bearish points.
> On a daily chart, Bitcoin've already marked $4980 as a support zone. If we try to measure H&S pattern, we see that it plays quite well as a H&S neckline. However, the price has already hit this area three times (white arrows), which means that more and more liquidity is taken.

Summary - I threw away my idea about the major resistance as a profit target. Based on current price action and technical indicators, I likely expect the price drops down. If the idea about H&S is right, we could see one last leg up to $5350-$5450 zone before the price goes down. Then I expect a retracement at around $4800 and then another drop to the lower channel line, at around $4400 and maybe deeply to $4200.
Trade closed: target reached: Because I don 't expect further upward trend, it's time to close this idea.
Comment: Up to profit $900 / 1BTC


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