BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
***THIS IS A LITTLE LONG BUT IT COMES WITH THE INFORMATION YOU MIGHT NOT BE THINKING ABOUT***

This is the Daily XBT( BTC ) chart.
This is going to be a simple illustration to make it easy(KIND OF)

From what We are seeing across social media, Most traders want the “BIG GREEN ARROW AND SMILEY FACE” scenario to play out and will jump on the first sign of any direction THAT WAY. BUT, is this the direction the smart money is going to take it, to make the most money?

Lets look at both scenarios.

The "SAD FACE" scenario would be limited in the run which would limit the max potential profit for the smart money. It’s limited in the run to the downside at the moment for the fact that if BTC was to sell off to 6000 or even slightly below, It would cause the trade to immediately become crowded to the short side which we have seen stalls BTC as no one wants to take the other side of the trade if BTC is breaking the lows and from the chart, the accumulation zones are from 6000-6500, so there isn’t much profit to be made to the downside from where we are at RIGHT NOW in the structure.

NOW- For the "SMILEY FACE" scenario to play out, the SMART MONEY will have had to already position at the lows, as retail traders never enter before the smart money BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVE since they know where they are going to try and push a market. I marked the 2 most obvious spots heavy money could have positioned with the WHITE arrows.

Remember, in accumulation they are buying what you are selling if they are going to push it higher and vic versa, so look for signs of short or long accumulation when you are in these areas. They will run it to release profit once the order book imbalance is right where they want it, to which ever side they are going to extract the most money from.

To get retail traders to build a position to one side, you HAVE TO change their sentiment in that direction. They accomplish this by building positive price structures,DAILY BULLISH news articles, and building potentially BULLISH pattern breaks-(to suck in more retail traders sitting on the sidelines). Once they change trader sentiment, they then can take it in the direction which they have identified will reward them with the most profit. Unfortunately, this is at Retail traders expense.

For a move to break out and run higher and higher(or lower and lower) there have to be traders on the other side of your trade wanting to sell it higher and higher. If EVERYONE is seeing these BULLISH patterns and BULLISH structure and reading all the same BULLISH articles and NOW everyone is bullish , WHO IS THERE TO TAKE THE OTHER SIDE OF ALL THOSE BULLISH TRADERS GETTING IN WHEN THE BREAK OUT CANDLE CONFIRMS WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN SEEING?

If everyone is NOW buying, WHO is selling to them with enough volume to take price higher and higher and be able to sell even higher as new highs are being made with the FOMO and sideline traders now getting in? We could say, the volume will come from all those "crazy over-leveraged short traders" as they get liquidated on the way up. NOT ANYMORE. The net difference between SHORTS and LONGS is 5000+/-, which is just about equal in relative terms. This trade is not overly crowded to either side.

-SO ,WHO ELSE IS LEFT?
-WHO CAN MAKE A MARKET WITH ENOUGH VOLUME TO SELL OFF AND STILL MAKE A LOT OF MONEY?

That’s the SMART MONEY! One of the reasons the smart money builds positive price structures and patterns is so they can validate them for retail traders to see, so that enough money comes into a trade to provide a high liquidity environment SO THEY CAN EXIT.

-Ever wonder why SOME price patterns work and SOME dont?
-Ever wonder why SOME patterns break just outside the structure then hard reverse and trade in the opposite direction?
**Structures are built to accomplish the trade agenda(trade plan) by the smart money to create the liquidity THEY NEED..NOT RETAIL.

When smart money exits on a bullish move, they SELL(DISTRIBUTE) into the rally all the way up until they have closed out 100% of their position, and as they sell into the rally ,sell-side volume dries up and they NOW have a huge short position and the move turns back on the small retail buyers and the trade most often reverses in which they can release more profit, then the market finds a new fair value range(ACCUMULATION) and the cycle starts over. The smart money know which price levels they need to push the market to reach peak liquidity if they want to build a huge position to take it the other way. HAPPENS EVERY DAY IN FINANCIAL MARKETS.

I can see this impending "BREAK" as nothing more than a HUGE TRAP TRADE to take BTC LOWER one more time to get the weak hands off their positions who all feel safe around BTC 5500.

SO IT MAKES SENSE THEY WOULD TAKE IT TO THE TOPSIDE, BUT NOT FOR VERY LONG!

WHY??!!

IF you have been paying attention to the overall volume across the major exchanges ,especially BITMEX, the DAILY volume has fell decreased by more than 5X from a 24HR daily traded volume of around 5 BILLION to under 800 MILLION. Yes Im aware that light volume retracements are a part of price structures sometimes. BUT this is different for the lenght of time and the steadily decline.

SO WHERE IS ALL THE MONEY GOING?
-What I think we are seeing is the early effects of the "highly regarded" institutional access exchange BAKKT. Here is what BAKKT is supposed to be in their words:
“Bakkt is designed to serve as a scalable on-ramp for institutional, merchant, and consumer participation in digital assets by promoting greater efficiency, security, and utility,” said Kelly Loeffler, ICE’s head of digital assets, who will serve as Ceo of Bakkt, in the press release announcing the launch. “We are collaborating to build an open platform that helps unlock the transformative potential of digital assets across global markets and commerce.”

SO ,IF there has been MASS accumulation in the O.T.C markets by HEAVY MONEY FIRMS, as we have been ONLY reading reports about it online, then WHO in the world could these firms turn to that would have the liquidity capability to handle the volume needed for these firms to unload and buy at will and make the returns they are seeking, with the large amounts of capital they are trading?

FOR RIGHT NOW, THIS COULD BE BAKKT.
The Volume we were previously seeing on other major exchanges from heavy money firms who could move the market ,I BELIEVE(just my opinion),IS slowly making its way over to BAAKT for the liquidity opportunity they will provide ,along with the "SAFETY NET" of regulation that these big firms want.

From an institutional perspective, you NEED liquidity to be able to profit and you WANT the regulation and oversight to "ensure" your equity.

AS BTC prepares to "BREAK THE PATTERN" which almost every retail trader is waiting on, it will fail in comparison to the BREAK that happens when BAKKT comes online.WHICH we could see BTC keep stalling and making smaller moves until BAKKT comes online. BUT THE MOVE UP WILL NOT FOR THE REASONS YOU THINK.

IF firms have been accumulating and now they have one central exchange(when it comes online) where they can unload some or all of their position for profits as the market breaks higher, THEN WHO IS ON THE OTHER SIDE BUYING (JUMPING IN) as the market breaks out of the OH SO OBVIOUS PATTERN? THATS RETAIL TRADERS.

The market is so overly bullish that it wont take but a small amount of money to push BTC past the liquidity levels of 6900 and the higher psychological retail levels of 7400 which is also another liquidity target.
This would get the reaction that the SMART MONEY needs as retail traders are pouring in as the market makes new highs. FINALLY right? WRONG!
This is the HIGH LIQUIDITY ENVIRONMENT heavy money needs to be able to exit with large sums of money as I talked about earlier.

There is STILL another positioning to be made. SO jump on board when the RISK TO REWARD is there, but take profits quicker along the way.. BUT I STILL SEE ANOTHER TURN IS COMING and will be stronger and THAT will be the last SHAKE OUT. IF you dont think they do that, then go back over the past 2 years and look at ALL the positioning that was made as the market sold off hard for WHATEVER REASON. The Exhaustion wicks give you plenty of volume .

TO GET LARGE SUMS OF MONEY IN THE MARKET YOU NEED TO ACCUMULATE IN INCREMENTAL AMOUNTS OVER A LONGER PERIOD, OR OTC BEHIND THE SCENES, OR CREATE A HIGH LIQUIDITY ENVIRONMENT BY GETTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF TRADERS OUT OF THEIR POSITIONS (CAPITULATION) ,SO HEAVY MONEY CAN GET IN.

So with BTC , and the impending price expansion, expect false moves (head fakes/trap trades) on top or bottom of the structure, or even a possible slip outside of structure with no real “break” or volume , in which BTC would find a new higher or lower range to consolidate in. Watch for the volume follow through for the break to be considered significant and true.

Again this is just my opinion, from how ALL OTHER capital markets work to create high liquidty environments. When the market seems so OBVIOUS to RETAIL TRADERS, then something ELSE is working behind the scenes creating that sentiment.

THE MARKET IS SUSPICIOUSLY QUIET FOR A REASON!

STAY SHARP, STAY FOCUSED , AND STAY UNDERLEVERAGED.
@CAMBRISTCAPITAL Thanks for sharing your opinion. Very interesting thoughts.
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nutakank HardFork_Cafe
@HardFork_Cafe, I know right!! This guys has been spot on so far. He made a video to go with this post. Helped my understand it even more! You should check it out.
https://youtu.be/4P-b0NSNzpw
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@nutakank, thanks!
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CAMBRISTCAPITAL HardFork_Cafe
@HardFork_Cafe, Thank you. Just a different look at things from another angle.
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