AynCzubas
Short

Shanghai Class A Index Peaking at a .618 Retracement?

INDEX:XGY0   Shanghai Class A Index
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I notice that the Shanghai Class A Shares Index is just hitting the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the major decline from the 2007 peak to the 2008 low, and this rocketing price movement has culminated in five waves in a textbook impulsive structure that began in June 2013.

I wonder if price will now correct downward significantly. Recently, before the level exceeded the August 2009 peak, the analysts at EWI             were quite reasonably looking at Shanghai as developing a wave IV as a triangle, seeing the present rise as a "d" wave. However, as this rise has since March exceeded the limits of the proposed triangle boundary lines, an alternate view needs to be taken.

Therefore, for now, I am staying with the idea that the index is within a wave IV, although I now suspect that the whole up-down-up action from the low in 2008 has been a protracted "b" wave having an internal ABC structure -- of which the internal "C" segment might have just completed at the 61.8% level of wave "a" mentioned above. It is interesting to also note that the "b" wave's "A" segment was just about 38.2% of the wave "a". Also, at this level, the "C" segment is hitting the area which corresponds to between 1.382 and 1.618 the length of the "A" segment.

If that is the case, I suspect that a triangle may still be developing but over a longer period, perhaps with each successive wave to unfold at a Fibonacci retracement (perhaps .618) of previous waves.
AynCzubas
2 years ago
At 4744, the index has pushed about 100 points above the .618 retracement of the 2007-2008 decline. At 4700, the extending 5th wave was equal to the 3rd wave. I would say it is stretching the limit at this point.
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AynCzubas
2 years ago
Possible Alternate count:
Shanghai Class A Shares - Alternate Count
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