First, XLE spent the last two weeks of 2020 holding roughly $37.90. That was near the low from March 2009. Looking back even further, it’s also near a high from November 2004. That’s when crude oil began its major ramp toward $100.
Next, XLE’s 50-day ( ) rose above its 200-day last week: a golden cross reversal pattern. It’s the first time the fast line has been over the slow line in more than 2-1/2 years.
The fundamental picture could also be improving as the Saudis hold OPEC+ in check. There are clearly risks to crude oil , but the current situation could be starting to resemble 2003 with a strengthening global economy and weakening dollar. Copper , gold and silver have already rallied. Will black gold follow and climb the wall of worry?
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