jangseohee

Energy Sector, Temporary Bottom?

Long
AMEX:XLE   SPDR Select Sector Fund - Energy Select Sector
2
In feb, when DJIA triggered a massive long signal, this energy XLE sector was brought along for half a year.
However, when the price hit the top, there wasn't any MACD & RSI divergence signals at all.
End of July saw the break of short-term uptrend line twice, which trigger a sell signal.
Subsequently the price has engaged in the downtrend channel nicely.
On friday's close, it was another bearish candle with the fact that crude oil futures drop below $90 and close at 89.71.

But i am doing a little big of contrarian long again here due to:

1. the downtrend channel seems to be well respected upper and lower
2. RSI has no bullish divergence level, but it is way way OVERSOLD!
3. Bullish divergence happen in CCI , although CCI gives randomly reliable signal
4. two rejection below 88
5. the volume for last three trading day looks like climatic selling (while Funds are climatic buying?) and this volume is comparable to the temporary bottom back in Feb.

1st target will be around 92 which coincide with the resistance of downtrend channel and slight around 200ema. Anything more bullish can see it test 94.88 again.

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