TradeStation

Exxon May Be Trying to Break Out

NYSE:XOM   Exxon Mobil
Energy is the only sector with a positive return so far in August. Today’s chart focuses on Exxon Mobil, the biggest and most liquid name in the group.

First consider the trendline along the highs of May 8 and July 3. XOM surged after breaking out and has now come down to hold the same line. Is old resistance becoming new support?

Second, last week’s lows represented a 50 percent retracement of the move from the July low to the August high.

Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA. That potentially suggests its short-term trend is getting bullish. (Only 21 percent of S&P 500’s members could make make such a claim last Friday, according to TradeStation data.)

Last week’s bounce also occurred at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is additionally trying to turn higher.

These points could make traders look for more gains if XOM can break the falling trendline that’s appeared since mid-August.

Finally, fundamentals may support energy. Crude-oil inventories have been lower than expected the last two weeks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) recently hit the lowest level since late-1983.

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