$XPT v $USD - Predictive Model Eyes Lower Targets | #platinum

FX:XPTUSD   Platinum / U.S. Dollar

Prior analysis released this past May 2015 is replaced by this update. Following defines and explains the Predictive/Forecasting Model's targets, as well as the "Geo":


The following targets are defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model as:

1 - TG-2 = 849.0 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a quantitative target ("Quant-Target") ... All Quant-Targets are usually associated with retracements (not reversal), as well as the definition of future R/S levels if entering a new price territory, or validation of prior R/S levels if revisiting prior price territories.

The relevance of a Quant-Target is that it is usually associated with a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386 to 0.618;

2 - TG-Lo = 629.8 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a qualitative target ("Qual-Target") ... All Qual-Targets are usually associated with reversals (not just retracement), defining a probable tip-top or bottom-tip reversal if entering a new price territory.

The relevance of a Qual-Target is that it is usually associated with a reversal in the Fibonacci order of 0.618 to extensions levels of 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 or 1.618;


3 - TG-Lox = 487.9 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a Qual-Target and abides to same condition as above.


The Geo             is a refinement of the Mr. William "Bill" Wolfe's namesake Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com), taking into consideration internal construction conditions, as well as compensating for geometric             distortions that occur in the Wolfe Wave . While the Wolfe Wave defines the 1-4 Line projection as a target once price reverses from Point-5, this target is sometimes missed by a margin that relates to how much adverse excursion occurred off of Point-5.

Hence, the Geo             takes into account these adverse excursions in price, which define an altered, distorted geometry ("Geo"). This distorted geometry now associates Point-5, 5' and 5'' with high-probability targets, into a "Geo Off-Set Rule", numbered as follows:

#1 - IF price reverses from Point-5, THEN 1-4 Line is the HIGH-PROBABILITY target ( Wolfe Wave rule as well);

#2 - IF price reverses from Point-5', THEN price level of Point-4 becomes the HIGH-PROBABILITY target;


#3 - IF price reverses from Point-5'', THEN price level of Point-3 becomes the HIGH-PROBABILITY target.


Note that price has already defined Point-5'', whereas it has yet to define TG-2 = 849.0. As stated in the rule Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, Point-5'' definition is associated with a high-probability target at price level of Point-3 - This would ths             point to a high-probability of price retracing to 1262.9 - See following chart:

While TG-2 remains pending at this time, if and once this target is hit, it would also be associated with price retracing (not reversing) to one of the three Fibonacci values, namely: 0.386, 0.500 or 0.618.

Interestingly, as per following chart, satisfaction of both 1) Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 as well as 2) Quant-Target would put these two conditions into near-perfect alignment - See following chart:


Predictive/Forecasting Model, as well as the Geo             , call for a price relaxation from circa 849.0 to 1262.9, whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model alone calls for a moderate probability of price eventually reaching TG-Lo = 629.8, thus defining the following probable price action:


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

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Comment: 17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit TG-2 ... High-probability retracement per forecast:

David Alcindor
David Alcindor
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13 NOV 2015 - NOTE:

See $XPDUSD (Palladium) in the Metals Room: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#QHPeo09xhTSe8Chl

Here is the recent analysis on this cousin:

26 SEP 2015 - $XPDUSD - Weekly Chart:

Following is a HIGH probability target:

TG-1 = 708.6 - 26 SEP 2015

The other targets are of lesser probability value, but would cause price to meet greater difficulty in climbing.

Here is the WEEKLY chart:

Unfortunately, I do not have enough of a time data, but it appears that a 5-3-5 correction (dashed in blue with plots A-B-C) is about to complete (on a weekly time scale that is, so there is lots of time to watch this glacier move).

The underlying pattern appears to be an EXPANDED FLAT, where both points B and C terminate beyond the origination point of the prior wave.

There are TWO internal waves I would follow, but only one that is currently defining a correction to conclude into this Elliott Wave Point-4 before completing the 5-wave sequence into a 5th and terminal point. That point is given a preliminary target that remains to be confirmed in terms of placement and whether a qualitative or quantitative target.

David Alcindor

13 NOV 2015 - $XPDUSD - Weekly Chart:

Price reached TG-1 and reversed as per dashed forecast pathway ... TG-503.2 remains pending:

David Alcindor

Point is: As we are looking at $XPTUSD nearing a probable retracement, this may possible correct in synchrony with palladium.

David Alcindor
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4xForecaster 4xForecaster
SOURCE: Metals Room: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#QHPeo09xhTSe8Chl

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