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$XPT v $USD - Predictive Model Eyes Lower Targets | #platinum

FX:XPTUSD   Platinum/U.S. Dollar
a year ago
QUICK ANALYSIS:

snapshot


Prior analysis released this past May 2015 is replaced by this update. Following defines and explains the Predictive/Forecasting Model's targets, as well as the "Geo":


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The following targets are defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model as:

1 - TG-2 = 849.0 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a quantitative target ("Quant-Target") ... All Quant-Targets are usually associated with retracements (not reversal), as well as the definition of future R/S levels if entering a new price territory, or validation of prior R/S levels if revisiting prior price territories.

The relevance of a Quant-Target is that it is usually associated with a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386 to 0.618;

2 - TG-Lo = 629.8 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a qualitative target ("Qual-Target") ... All Qual-Targets are usually associated with reversals (not just retracement), defining a probable tip-top or bottom-tip reversal if entering a new price territory.

The relevance of a Qual-Target is that it is usually associated with a reversal in the Fibonacci order of 0.618 to extensions levels of 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 or 1.618;

AND

3 - TG-Lox = 487.9 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a Qual-Target and abides to same condition as above.


GEO:

The Geo             is a refinement of the Mr. William "Bill" Wolfe's namesake Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com), taking into consideration internal construction conditions, as well as compensating for geometric             distortions that occur in the Wolfe Wave. While the Wolfe Wave defines the 1-4 Line projection as a target once price reverses from Point-5, this target is sometimes missed by a margin that relates to how much adverse excursion occurred off of Point-5.

Hence, the Geo             takes into account these adverse excursions in price, which define an altered, distorted geometry ("Geo"). This distorted geometry now associates Point-5, 5' and 5'' with high-probability targets, into a "Geo Off-Set Rule", numbered as follows:

#1 - IF price reverses from Point-5, THEN 1-4 Line is the HIGH-PROBABILITY target (Wolfe Wave rule as well);

#2 - IF price reverses from Point-5', THEN price level of Point-4 becomes the HIGH-PROBABILITY target;

AND

#3 - IF price reverses from Point-5'', THEN price level of Point-3 becomes the HIGH-PROBABILITY target.


DISCUSSION:

Note that price has already defined Point-5'', whereas it has yet to define TG-2 = 849.0. As stated in the rule Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, Point-5'' definition is associated with a high-probability target at price level of Point-3 - This would ths point to a high-probability of price retracing to 1262.9 - See following chart:
snapshot


While TG-2 remains pending at this time, if and once this target is hit, it would also be associated with price retracing (not reversing) to one of the three Fibonacci values, namely: 0.386, 0.500 or 0.618.

Interestingly, as per following chart, satisfaction of both 1) Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 as well as 2) Quant-Target would put these two conditions into near-perfect alignment - See following chart:
snapshot



OVERALL:

Predictive/Forecasting Model, as well as the Geo             , call for a price relaxation from circa 849.0 to 1262.9, whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model alone calls for a moderate probability of price eventually reaching TG-Lo = 629.8, thus defining the following probable price action:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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.
a year ago
Comment: 17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit TG-2 ... High-probability retracement per forecast:

snapshot


David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
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13 NOV 2015 - NOTE:

See $XPDUSD (Palladium) in the Metals Room: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#QHPeo09xhTSe8Chl

Here is the recent analysis on this cousin:

==========================
26 SEP 2015 - $XPDUSD - Weekly Chart:

Following is a HIGH probability target:

TG-1 = 708.6 - 26 SEP 2015

The other targets are of lesser probability value, but would cause price to meet greater difficulty in climbing.

Here is the WEEKLY chart:
snapshot



Unfortunately, I do not have enough of a time data, but it appears that a 5-3-5 correction (dashed in blue with plots A-B-C) is about to complete (on a weekly time scale that is, so there is lots of time to watch this glacier move).

The underlying pattern appears to be an EXPANDED FLAT, where both points B and C terminate beyond the origination point of the prior wave.

There are TWO internal waves I would follow, but only one that is currently defining a correction to conclude into this Elliott Wave Point-4 before completing the 5-wave sequence into a 5th and terminal point. That point is given a preliminary target that remains to be confirmed in terms of placement and whether a qualitative or quantitative target.

David Alcindor

-------------------------------------
13 NOV 2015 - $XPDUSD - Weekly Chart:

Price reached TG-1 and reversed as per dashed forecast pathway ... TG-503.2 remains pending:
snapshot


David Alcindor
==========================

Point is: As we are looking at $XPTUSD nearing a probable retracement, this may possible correct in synchrony with palladium.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
SOURCE: Metals Room: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#QHPeo09xhTSe8Chl

David
+3 Reply
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