Beanoil CBoT again going short

25 0 1
8 months ago
Price made further advance during the past week and hit our stop. One could argue that our stop was too tight but, as a rule, taking a loss is a very healthy thing to do and the saying that 'the first loss is your best loss' makes a lot of sense if one thinks about it. So does the saying 'if you are not prepared to take a loss you will, sooner than later, be forced to take the mother of all losses' for that matter. The long-term pattern in the chart as such does not change at all and we maintain our bear bias until proven wrong which would be if price breaks 3385 to the upside.
During the past weeks price has developed an ascending wedge which is a very reliable bode that the move up is coming to an end. In addition to that we see a 'bearish engulfing' pattern combined with a single key reversal in last Friday's candle. All these key elements combined plus our expectation that the move to the downside will be sizeable makes us entertain a new short play again at either 33.40 during Monday which is at the upper boundary of the ascending wedge or at a close of 32.60 or lower during Monday which would be a break of the lower boundary of same ascending wedge . Initial stop will be put at 34.15 which is more for reason of money management than anything else.
8 months ago
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