The price of CBoT MAY16 wheat develops and interesting short play opportunity here, same although going short in the lower regions usually is not to be recommended.
Price has started to create a descending price range channel during late January with lower highs and lower lows. The candle of March 2 is a bit contradictory in the sense that price made a lower low again but one could classify the shape and position of the candle as a 'Hammer', be it not a perfect one.
Price made a solid move up of some 2% on March 3 which pushed price straight to the upper boundaries of the descending channel where the upper trend-line (in red) coincides with the horizontal (in black) line. This line was support to price during 4-7 January and during 8-12 February but same support was broken quite decisively on February 23. Now the same horizontal line offers resistance to price together with the earlier mention (red) upper trend line of the price channel.
A short play entry is being offered here with stop at 476 basis intra-day or at 466 basis end-of-day. First target 430 which is a 5% swing down from here and where at least half the position will be closed. As soon as there is a bit of profit in the position we trail the stop down to entry level in order to protect our capital.
Price has started to create a descending price range channel during late January with lower highs and lower lows. The candle of March 2 is a bit contradictory in the sense that price made a lower low again but one could classify the shape and position of the candle as a 'Hammer', be it not a perfect one.
Price made a solid move up of some 2% on March 3 which pushed price straight to the upper boundaries of the descending channel where the upper trend-line (in red) coincides with the horizontal (in black) line. This line was support to price during 4-7 January and during 8-12 February but same support was broken quite decisively on February 23. Now the same horizontal line offers resistance to price together with the earlier mention (red) upper trend line of the price channel.
A short play entry is being offered here with stop at 476 basis intra-day or at 466 basis end-of-day. First target 430 which is a 5% swing down from here and where at least half the position will be closed. As soon as there is a bit of profit in the position we trail the stop down to entry level in order to protect our capital.
Trade active
Trade closed: stop reached:
In fact, we have allowed this trade to take too much time. We should have closed it already earlier after we did not get a serious move to our direction.