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4yearcycle

BTC Long Term Idea 2022-2025Probably nothing. FED and the USA inflation rates has changed the dynamics of the Crypto Market since Bitcoin has a correlation with -NASDAQ- My last idea which has a pitchfork channel from 2017 top was broken after -NASDAQ- correlation, thus I am making a new strategy. First of all I believe that we need to follow up 11 May 2022 due to the USA inflation rate publishes. If the inflation rates goes below 8,1% that may give a positive signal to -NASDAQ-, -S&P- and -Dow Jones- and that will be reflected to Bitcoin as well. So I believe that we can follow 55000 - 57000 USD (0.618 fib line) for 2022 Summer and then we will enter a boring market up to new BTC Halving Date which will be approximately 2 May 2024. I hope that BTC will reach 185000USD in 2025 after 2024 Halving.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by kosersen
A Critical Analysis of the 200D (Aqua) & 600D (Teal) SMAThis post critically analyses how BTC has behaved after a cycle top with respect to the 200D SMA and 600D SMA, comparing similar periods to 2013-15 and 2017-18 (shown using blue boxes) to the current price behaviour (if indeed BTC has made it’s cycle top this bull run already). PRICE CHART The 200D SMA (shown in Aqua or light blue) and 600D SMA (shown in Teal or dark green) is plotted on the chart with my custom Pi Cycle Top & Bottom indicators and BTC halving's included to help differentiate BTC Cycles. Historically Once BTC has made a cycle top and price subsequently dropped below the 200D SMA, BTC tends to use the 200D SMA as resistance until BTC eventually break through it. After dropping below the 200D SMA, BTC has historically found support at the 600D SMA, and price is 'squeezed' or becomes ranged bound between these two moving averages. In both cases when this occurred in 2013-15 and 2017-18 (as shown in the blue boxes on the price chart), BTC broke to the down side, and the cross between these two moving averages have then approximated our next cycle bottom. Interestingly in 2013, BTC did not drop below the 200D after our first Pi Cycle Top indicator flag (actually using the 200D as support in July 2013 initially) which allowed us to continue on to a second cycle Top and new ATH for BTC. In Feb 2018, BTC initially tried to use the 200D as support, but broke through to the downside shortly after and the same outcome prevailed. This was one indication to BTC holders that 2017 may not be a double peak cycle like 2013 was. These similarities to the current price action paints a bearish picture for BTC and crypto markets, calling for the end of the current cycle Bull run and that BTC is heading for its next cycle bottom. Price is currently right now ranged bound between the 200D SMA and the 600D SMA very similar to the blue box regions identified above with our first confirmed rejection of the 200D SMA in March 2022 and many tests of the 600D since Jan 2022. From a TA (technical Analysis) / S/R (Support & Resistance) level prospective; a large dump is very plausible if the 29-30K USD price level is lost. Before a bearish sentiment is locked in from this analysis, let’s look at what is different from now to the prior times we have seen this price behaviour from BTC? Firstly we did break the 200D during this bull run back in May 2021 but was able to quickly recover in August 2021, and dipped and bounced in September and November until again falling below in December 2021. BTC has never achieved this since putting in a cycle top or in a cycle bear market (NOTE: BTC has never done this either in a bull market as price is usually above the 200D SMA in this case). BTC has also been in a trading range between ~60K to ~30K for more than a year during a bull run. This has never happened before with BTC. Sideways price action can make short term signals from moving averages less relevant. The support and resistance zones created through this trading range made hold more significant. A sweep of the 29K lows with volume would act as a spring traders looking at this trading range are waiting for and if this demand zone holds could start the next leg to finish off this bull run for the cycle. MA OSSILATOR The MA Oscillator is another custom indicator I have built in trading view to look at the %difference between price and moving averages (amounts other things). As shown, this indicator is set up to show the %change from price of the 200D SMA (Navy) and 600D SMA (Teal or dark green). The way to view this analysis is what happens to the price of BTC when price reaches a %increase above or %decrease below the moving average or is equal to it. From this analysis, we see each time price has dropped ~100% from both the 200D SMA and the 600D SMA at the same time (i.e. both lines reach the bottom of the green zone), this has Marked BTC’s cycle bottom. Similarly each time we have price extend 57% or greater above both the 600D SMA and 200D SMA (i.e. land in the red zone), this has marked a significant local top and or a cycle top. Comparing the squeeze zones in price, each time including now the 200D line was below 0% and rising before and the Teal line was able the 0% line and falling before resulting in a large dump that takes us to our next cycle bottom. RSI I have included the RSI for Reference as cross analysis of Peak in RSI and other indicators can help identify cycle peaks. SUMMARY Holding ~$29-$30K zone will be significant for bulls believing in lengthening cycles and that our cycle top ATH is still to come. If price does test these levels, then strong volumes and buying pressure will be expected to turn price around quickly. There is a lot of on chain data to support this theory. I would be following central banks and the FED, a delaying in interest rate tightening schedule may be the catalyst for this scenario. If these levels are lost, then it is likely BTC will continue this trend with the 200D SMA and 600D SMA; confirming our prior cycle top is in, the bull run is over, an eventual dump down to the 200W SMA probable and putting in our next cycle bottom.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Brodie
The Bitcoin comfort zone - 90K within range? @tradingparrot Based on logarithmic model and 4-year halving cycle model we don't need a blow off top in the current cycle to get to 90K. We can just literally stay in the bitcoin comfort zone logarithmic channel and chill until we get there. Not financial advice but I kind of resonate with this idea. I'll be publish a video on youtube tonight with all the detail of this analysis. I'm tagging this as bullish in the context of the daily chart and with a time frame of months to a full year to allow the model to play out.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TheTradingParrot
150K Bitcoin Top?Posted this earlier today but it got flagged for adding my twitter handle so im posting again. A lot of times this cycle is compared to the BTC cycle in 2013. However right now price action is looking very similar to 2017. We have bottomed out on almost the exact day in July and have been following the price movement of the second half of 2017 very closely. The 55 EMA looks to be important to watch during these times. In July 2017, BTC had broken below the 55EMA before bottoming out, very similar to July 2021. They then proceeded to make higher highs and higher lows before having a second break and close below in September. It recovered relatively quickly from here and went on to continue the uptrend. In both 2017 and 2021 when we bottomed in July and September, we had a double bottom on the RSI . In November of 2017 we didnt reach the bottom levels of the RSI trend during that correction but we did correct and continued the uptrend on the RSI once we tested and bounced off of the 55 EMA on the daily. We just tested the 55EMA, and are currently looking for a bounce. If this plays out until the end of the year we could see a cycle top of 150k as soon as December 21st of this year. After we reestablish the 7 MA next close below could be the signal that the top is in. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by anamaly
180K Bitcoin Top?Exciting times for Bitcoin and crypto in general. 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run has been insanely similar to 2012-2013's bull run. Especially when it comes to price action. In both cycles April has been the mid-cycle top followed by a 3 month re-accumulation period. Q4 is also off to a great start. The RSI has been a very useful indicator, in 2013 the local top and end of cycle top both touch the blue trend line before falling. Although the local top this year wasnt defined when the RSI hit its peak, id say its still something to pay close attention to if youre trying to sell at the "Top". If you check the monthly, youll notice the second touch of the RSI top trend line marks the end of the bull market every time so far in Bitcoins existence. Of course just because something has happened in the past doesnt mean it will happen in the future, I'd say it has shown any signs of how this cycle could be different. Institutional demand along with country demand is a huge difference but human nature tends to stay the same more or less. Just because bigger entities are buying into Bitcoin doesnt save Bitcoin from going through psychological market cycles like it has in the previous 2 cycles. It will just be a different scale. There are super cycle theories, however, which I dont find impossible either. No one knows the future but to give us the best odds in deciphering which of the 2 might happen, pay EXTREMELY close attention to the sentiment. Check the fear and greed index regularly, along with the RSI. If we have a steady climb with healthy sell offs in-between throughout these next few months then it increases the odds of a super cycle. But if you see us making ATH after ATH daily, with little to no corrections then that would increase the odds of the 4 year cycle theory. I personally will probably sell most if not all my crypto bags when the monthly or weekly RSI trend line is hit, especially if the 4.236 fib level is reached. Using the local top of 2013 as the initial point, the 4.236 level marked the top of the cycle. It wicked a little higher but that level seems very important to watch for this cycle as well. This level was about $950 give or take depending how you draw your retracement, and the weekly close at the top was $948! It also touched the RSI on the same week it topped. Ill be expecting something similar to this year(Or beginning of next!) Using the fib retracement from the mid cycle top of this year, the 4.236 level is marked at 183k give or take. So i would be on the look out for a 180K top with a possible wick up to the 200K level. I hope this helps out everyone who reads this, good luck everyone!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by anamaly
BTC Final Intermediate Fifth Wave In PlayA shallow pull back to the 0.38 level. Wave 2 of the final intermediate fifth? An impulsive recovery will further validate the count. Disclaimer This is not trading advice. All content/ information shared in this idea is purely educational in nature and is expected to be used for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Do not trade or speculate based on the information provided in this idea. Trust your own analysis. BeyondEdge
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BeyondEdge
1
Bitcoin Macro Wave Count - Wave 4 Has BegunAccording to "Elliott Wave Principles" the 4th wave of a Primary impulse tends to enter the range of the 4th subwave of wave 3. That would mean we go to at least 42000. Historically, BTC has had 4th wave consolidations from May --> July in 2013, 2017, and now 2021? 4 year cycles, 4 years apart, same PA... spooky. In conjunction with this, there has been an altseason (due to BTC ranging) every 3 months since May 2020. May 2021 would fall into this cycle. ---------------- If we take a look at LTC/BTC, which both obey 4 year cycles at the moment, the previous two cycles have yielded similar patterns. (look at this to understand the following paragraph) From July --> October (purple to green regions) in 2013 and 2017, BTC broke out of consolidation and went parabolic against LTC (the sharp decline) until hitting the green region. Then LTC pumps as well, but BTC kept pumping until November/December of 2013 and 2017 at which point a blowoff top occurred, and BTC entered a bear market both times. If history repeats itself, then BTC should range from March --> late June / early July (light blue to purple region), as it did in 2013 and 2017. 4 years later in 2021, we bottomed in March on LTC/BTC (light blue region). ----------------- So we have a macro wave count, cyclical altseasons, and LTC/BTC 4 year cycles all pointing to a ranging/4th wave correction from March --> July 2021.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Riester
6
LTC & BTC Cyclical NatureJust as sine and cosine exhibit identical periods of rotation, but remain offset to a certain degree, LTC and BTC exist in a similar manner. If BTC = digital gold, then LTC = digital silver. LTC was born from BTC's source code, albeit slightly modified. Some notable changes are faster block times and a lighter mining algorithm. The consequences of these changes are not important for this post. What matters are the similarities. LTC has a fixed maximum supply, just as BTC. LTC also has a halving every 4 years. The result of these constants are LTC & BTC oscillating through their respective 4 year cycles in a slightly offset manner. In the chart notice that the LTC halving (black) and the BTC halving (orange) are offset, but still 4 years apart. Notice how the respective peaks of LTC and BTC occur in the same fashion 4 years apart. A picture is worth a thousand words, so analyze the chart instead of reading my explanation. Words simply do not do It justice. Yes, in the chart the sample size of market cycles = 2. The past is not a predictor of the future. Nonetheless, this is interesting and IF it holds true that fundamentally changes the way crypto differentiates itself from legacy stocks. There is unimpeded cyclicality, instead of massive boom periods followed by sharp recessions. Order, mediocristan, antifragility, has been restored.
by Riester
BITCOIN: The door is closing.I asked myself a while back; how will the Bitcoin-halving effect price? I am taking the position that Bitcoin will increase buying pressure , regardless of all factors considered, most retail traders and even long term investors will see this as just incentive to invest more, and this same narrative will likely be pushed by the media as it has in the past. With that said, it is this fundamental that is being factored into today's projection/scenarois: 0: (Expectation) 8k resistance level very likely to be touched 1: MM will use this as an opportunity to push price lower 1.1: If price is pushed lower, the neck-line at 7.25k will hold up as resistance levels usually serve as even stronger supports often 1.2: If price is pushed lower, and the neckline at 7.25k doesn't hold up, then the break of a such a significant support level will push price down with more momentum. This will be ideal for Market Makers as they want to push price lower before the Bitcoin-halving comes up to create more liquidity and ride the buying pressure from FOMOing retail traders and investors. 2: If resistance at 8k does not hold up, the ultimate storm of FOMO will be created as the bearish sentiment the market will be injured. That + the up coming halving will ultimately form a new bullish sentiment throughout the market. 2.1: ^ False-breakout, 2 month-long rising wedge plays out, wick down to 2k. I did not include into the chart. Conclusion: Assuming the halving in May increases buying pressure, Market Makers are running out of time to manipulate the market and create liquidity before the halving. The door won't be open for much longer and market makers must soon decide what to do before hand. Thanks for reading! I use technical analysis for these scenarios but I strongly believe in also including and justifying market behavior using fundamentals. If you like my analysis and hope to see more very well backed break-downs, follow me here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mike_McCarthy
2
Altcoin 4 year cycle - What to expectIf the markets do run in 4 year cycles then this is what we can expect. Chart explained: * From the end of may 2014 until November 2015 we have seen a ABC correction (bearmarket), for the current bearmarket this ABC correction started in January 2018 until the end of September. In my opinion the bottom of the total market cap ex. BTC is already in. ( Bottoms are marked with the green dotted line ) * If we can trust the chart, we will see a beautiful increase in marketcap the coming 7 months when the next Bitcoin halving ( yellow dotted line ) will be a fact, here we will see the first part of the Elliot wave completed ( if history repeats itself ) * Buy the news sell the rumor, expect a temporary pullback / consolidation phase when the halving passes, with this pullback we will complete the second part of the Elliot wave. * Bags will be filled and the market will once more see a run up, with this run we will complete the third part of the Elliot wave. * As expected, after every run a correction need to happen, this correction will be short lived. This will be the fourth part of the Elliot wave. * Prices will shoot up rather quickly and FOMO kicks in, lets enjoy the ride on wave 5 RSI explained: I have used a 12345 structure to point out the historical RSI VS the current RSI setup, does it looks similar to you ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is no advice and I know there are a lot of similar posts, this chart is a possible setup based on long term trend and historical data combined with dates and some technical indicators. Enjoy
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by Dmoootje
4
Bear Market Fib retracement. 2019 an 2015 parallelsLooks like this history is repeating itself. First retracement came at the .618 level. Looking for the next steady rise until the 1 level. Followed by a retracement, bounce, breakout through previous ATH, and from there the sky is the limit. (but more like 100k - 300k) If this is true, we are in the very early stages of a bull market, and now is a great time to buy in. Altseason to start once we hit 20,000 and BTC is divested into speculative alts.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by davidm163
2