Exciting times for Bitcoin and crypto in general. 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run has been insanely similar to 2012-2013's bull run. Especially when it comes to price action. In both cycles April has been the mid-cycle top followed by a 3 month re-accumulation period. Q4 is also off to a great start.
The RSI has been a very useful indicator, in 2013 the local top and end of cycle top both touch the blue trend line before falling. Although the local top this year wasnt defined when the RSI hit its peak, id say its still something to pay close attention to if youre trying to sell at the "Top". If you check the monthly, youll notice the second touch of the RSI top trend line marks the end of the bull market every time so far in Bitcoins existence.
Of course just because something has happened in the past doesnt mean it will happen in the future, I'd say it has shown any signs of how this cycle could be different. Institutional demand along with country demand is a huge difference but human nature tends to stay the same more or less.
Just because bigger entities are buying into Bitcoin doesnt save Bitcoin from going through psychological market cycles like it has in the previous 2 cycles. It will just be a different scale. There are super cycle theories, however, which I dont find impossible either.
No one knows the future but to give us the best odds in deciphering which of the 2 might happen, pay EXTREMELY close attention to the sentiment. Check the fear and greed index regularly, along with the RSI. If we have a steady climb with healthy sell offs in-between throughout these next few months then it increases the odds of a super cycle. But if you see us making ATH after ATH daily, with little to no corrections then that would increase the odds of the 4 year cycle theory. I personally will probably sell most if not all my crypto bags when the monthly or weekly RSI trend line is hit, especially if the 4.236 fib level is reached.
Using the local top of 2013 as the initial point, the 4.236 level marked the top of the cycle. It wicked a little higher but that level seems very important to watch for this cycle as well. This level was about $950 give or take depending how you draw your retracement, and the weekly close at the top was $948! It also touched the RSI on the same week it topped. Ill be expecting something similar to this year(Or beginning of next!) Using the fib retracement from the mid cycle top of this year, the 4.236 level is marked at 183k give or take. So i would be on the look out for a 180K top with a possible wick up to the 200K level. I hope this helps out everyone who reads this, good luck everyone!
The RSI has been a very useful indicator, in 2013 the local top and end of cycle top both touch the blue trend line before falling. Although the local top this year wasnt defined when the RSI hit its peak, id say its still something to pay close attention to if youre trying to sell at the "Top". If you check the monthly, youll notice the second touch of the RSI top trend line marks the end of the bull market every time so far in Bitcoins existence.
Of course just because something has happened in the past doesnt mean it will happen in the future, I'd say it has shown any signs of how this cycle could be different. Institutional demand along with country demand is a huge difference but human nature tends to stay the same more or less.
Just because bigger entities are buying into Bitcoin doesnt save Bitcoin from going through psychological market cycles like it has in the previous 2 cycles. It will just be a different scale. There are super cycle theories, however, which I dont find impossible either.
No one knows the future but to give us the best odds in deciphering which of the 2 might happen, pay EXTREMELY close attention to the sentiment. Check the fear and greed index regularly, along with the RSI. If we have a steady climb with healthy sell offs in-between throughout these next few months then it increases the odds of a super cycle. But if you see us making ATH after ATH daily, with little to no corrections then that would increase the odds of the 4 year cycle theory. I personally will probably sell most if not all my crypto bags when the monthly or weekly RSI trend line is hit, especially if the 4.236 fib level is reached.
Using the local top of 2013 as the initial point, the 4.236 level marked the top of the cycle. It wicked a little higher but that level seems very important to watch for this cycle as well. This level was about $950 give or take depending how you draw your retracement, and the weekly close at the top was $948! It also touched the RSI on the same week it topped. Ill be expecting something similar to this year(Or beginning of next!) Using the fib retracement from the mid cycle top of this year, the 4.236 level is marked at 183k give or take. So i would be on the look out for a 180K top with a possible wick up to the 200K level. I hope this helps out everyone who reads this, good luck everyone!
