I was stopped out on that last attempt but the technical picture is getting stronger! I have re-entered. note: this is end of day data, that's why the profit/loss tool is in the particular place it is. Current price as I post this. This is a scalp, a little less than 2:1 RR I will most likely be out by that 50% Fib, my fav location. Quick to break even, quick...
This time, after a good sell, technical side is showing some signals for long opportunity. Position is open from 154,6-155,4 levels; stop below lows (154). Will closely watch for a next couple of days to get confirmation or denial.
After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue). I am looking for some support coming in here. As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies...
Market taking a breather after the recent rally. I would think that the market is taking a break from the rally for now. Corrective levels below are the 7 day MA at 164ish, 20 day MA at 158 and 100 day MA along with the lower line of the upsloping trend channel. Option vol went out on the move, but commercials seems to be selling as physical prices in Brazil are...
3% since my idea on Friday. Bounce adds to my conviction. Targets initially at 158, then 170.
Looking for 130 area as a target of the recent decline in coffee prices. Overall uptrend as indicated in upsloping orange trendline hasn't been broken yet Spreads are weak as well.
Update on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal. I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady. Warehouse stocks in...
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell...
Pro Long (Chart): - RSI and Stochastik created buy signal - Orange support line Pro Long (Physical): - ICE warehouse stocks new lows - spreads tightening ever so slightly Contra (Chart): - still in middle to upper end of trend channel - room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band - long term trend still down - risk/reward for long position not there IMHO I...
Coffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ). Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line). If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal. On the...
Short term targets on the downside: - 9 day MA around 129 - middle BBand at around 125.50 - Fib retracements
Pro bullish: - Slight bullish divergence on RSI and Stochastik - market running into support at lower end of trend channel - lower Bband at lows - Spreads steady Pro neutral: - nothing clear cut yet in terms of buy signal This is a good risk reward IMHO