AndreasMunz
Short

No frost in Brazil

ICEUSA:KC2!   Coffee
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee             areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.

Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.

Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago.

Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days).

I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega             will come in and provide some nice profits.

Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month.

Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action.

Support at 134, then nothing until 125
JosephValencia
5 months ago
Very good analysis. Thanks for sharing.
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AndreasMunz JosephValencia
5 months ago
Thanks Joseph. I appreciate it.
What markets are you generally interested in?
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JosephValencia
5 months ago
KC, GC, SB, CL and ED. I am a former series 3 and 30 and then PFG and MFG happened! 20 yes in the business and have subscribed to my newsletters and "systems" and I have found that it's always the guys that can succinctly explain their ideas that are the most effective. Good job, please keep it up.
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JosephValencia
5 months ago
meant to write yrs and many, damn auto correct.
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AndreasMunz JosephValencia
5 months ago
Very nice, and yes, I ll keep it up. I ll do a lot in softs and some crude, so let's keep up the conversation.

I moved from Pioneer to RCG a couple years before MFG, but know some people who where affected by MFG and couldn't trade for a while. I hope you came out of it ok.
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