I believe that the downward push we are seeing is due to profit taking. It is unusual to see the SP futures not in harmony with ICE #USD index. Volume still points to 111 .10 I believe as long as 109.50 is not broken the trend will continue up.
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell...
After reaching 50, as expected some sideways action. sold the 52c around 1.05 around 2 weeks ago.
I am neutral, because this looks like a correction of the prevailing uptrend as indicated in the dark red trendchannel.
Downside support are the blue trend line at around 48.20 and the 20 day MA or middle BBand.
Further on the downside we are looking at the...
- Slight bullish divergence on RSI and Stochastik
- market running into support at lower end of trend channel
- lower Bband at lows
- Spreads steady
- nothing clear cut yet in terms of buy signal
This is a good risk reward IMHO
Turning neutral and watching closely. I think good entry for e retracement IMHO
- RSI & Stochastik with bearish indications and market is very overbought.
- bearish engulfing and hanging man (confirmed with bearish engulfing)
- spreads have been weak the last three days already indicating a trend change
I am neutral with a bearish bias, but need more confirmation IMHO
Still bullish SB as it appreciated over the past month. It really gained momentum has it had to break out from oversold conditions.
What happened over the course was the term structure (future spreads) are now in backwardation for the entire next year. This leaves me with remaining bullish as it foreshadows supply tightness coming out of Brazil.
Also the USDBRL...