RIVN 1W: When an electric vehicle becomes a businessNASDAQ:RIVN
Rivian builds electric vehicles and commercial vans in the US: the R1T, R1S, EDV for Amazon, and the mass-market R2, whose first units began reaching customers on June 9, 2026. The company trades on Nasdaq.
Operational turning point
On July 2, Rivian released its Q2 production and delivery numbers. It produced 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194, beating its own guidance of 9,000–11,000 units. Full-year delivery guidance was raised from 62,000–67,000 to 65,000–70,000 vehicles. Preliminary Q2 revenue came in at $1.55–1.65 billion, above the analyst consensus of $1.45–1.46 billion. The full financial report is due on July 30.
The key fundamental fact the market still underestimates is that in Q1 2026, Rivian posted its first-ever positive gross profit of $119 million on revenue of $1.38 billion. Before that, the company had been losing money on every vehicle sold for years.
Equity offering and DOE loan
On July 7, Rivian priced a public offering of 75 million shares at $15.50. Underwriters fully exercised their option on July 8, bringing the final total to 86.25 million shares. Net proceeds were approximately $1.32 billion. The funds will be used to finance obligations under a $4.5 billion US Department of Energy loan to build a plant in Georgia, which will increase total capacity to 300,000 vehicles per year. The offering triggered a drop of more than 15% on the announcement day. This was a capital raise at a time of operational strength, not a distress sale, exactly what a capital‑intensive growth company should do.
Valuation
After the post‑offering drop, the market offers the following multiples: market cap around $21 billion, enterprise value around $21.5 billion. The trailing P/S is approximately 3.8 on annual revenue of $5.53 billion. Cash per share stands at about $3.77 after accounting for $6.6 billion in debt, implying net debt of roughly $1.8 billion after the offering proceeds. On an EV/Sales basis, the company trades below 4.0, which for an EV maker with a first‑ever positive gross margin looks significantly cheaper than a year ago.
Shareholder structure
Major strategic shareholders include Volkswagen AG with 16.4% of shares under a $5.8 billion investment agreement, and Amazon holding about 12.8% while also being a key commercial customer for EDV vans. Institutional investors include Vanguard and BlackRock. Total institutional ownership is around 52–57% of the float. Having two top‑tier strategic corporate partners is rare for a company of this market cap.
Short interest
Short positions represent 11.74% of the float, or about 150 million shares. This is a significant level that could add upside momentum on a strong catalyst. The next catalyst is the July 30 earnings report.
Risks
Despite the historic gross profit, adjusted EBITDA in Q1 was negative $472 million. Total debt of $6.6 billion combined with operating cash flow of negative $703 million per quarter requires constant monitoring of the cash burn rate. The offering diluted existing shareholders by about 6%.
Technicals – weekly timeframe
On the weekly chart, a trend reversal has been confirmed. Price has settled above all key moving averages. On the daily chart, a breakout and retest of the local downtrend line have been confirmed. On the weekly scale, a clean breakout and retest of horizontal resistance at $17.15–$17.48 has occurred, which now acts as support.
MACD sits at 0.3760 in positive territory with a bullish crossover. ADX at 17.58 signals a developing trend, with buyers dominating: DI+ at 29.80 vs DI− at 17.77. Average daily volume of about 57.33 million shares confirms institutional interest. The current zone of $17.15–$17.60 represents an optimal entry point. The target based on the pattern height is $35.55, implying 107% upside. A stop‑loss should be placed on a daily close below $14.00.
First‑ever gross profit, a delivery beat 20% above guidance, $7 billion in liquidity, Volkswagen and Amazon as strategic shareholders, and 11.74% short interest ready to cover on positive catalysts. The July 30 report will show whether the market is ready to re‑rate the story. 
Long
HOW-TO: Turning on the Smart Trader, Final Episode- AI assistingHOW-TO: Turning on the Smart Trader, Final Episode — AI-assisting geometric strategy
In this video, we walk through the very first steps a new user encounters when adding the strategy to a chart — starting from an empty workspace and progressively turning on its geometric observation layers.
What this video covers:
Adding the strategy and understanding why the chart starts empty — by design, not by error.
Turning on the Anchor lines (Ceiling, Floor, Center) and understanding the reference frame.
Opening the five triangle families: Ceiling, Floor, Center, Pin Up, and Pin Down.
Understanding the four geometric dimensions each triangle produces: Angle, Distance, Area, and Centroid.
Viewing Raw and MA (moving average) readings in the oscillator pane.
Normalizing different dimensions onto the same scale using Rank or Gaussian methods (mapped to a shared -100 to +100 range).
Exporting selected data via CSV for external analysis — with spreadsheets, statistical tools, or AI models.
This tool is not a signal machine. It does not promise results, predict price, or provide financial advice. It is a structured geometric workspace where traders decide what to observe, what to measure, and what to analyze. 
Education
JOBY: when the market doubts - smart money positionsJoby Aviation is currently at a point where fundamentals are moving ahead of price. While the market is still focused on losses, the company is already transitioning into real operations. A recent flight over San Francisco wasn’t a test — it was proof of execution in one of the most complex urban environments in the U.S. At the same time, participation in the eIPP program opens the path to early commercial operations across 10 states in 2026.This is no longer R&D - this is pre-revenue infrastructure scaling.
Financially , the company is built for this phase. Joby holds $1.4B in cash, with approximately $1.8B raised over the last six months, providing runway for aggressive expansion. Revenue remains limited at $31M per quarter, largely driven by Blade, while operating expenses stand at $238M and net loss at $122M - typical for a company transitioning into production. The 2026 outlook targets $105–150M revenue with projected cash usage of $340–370M in the first half. Meanwhile, FAA certification is progressing, manufacturing is expanding (Ohio + California), and international agreements (Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Uber, Delta) are already in place. This is not a concept - it’s an ecosystem being deployed.
Now to the chart - and this is where the real story unfolds.
After the impulse to $20.95, price entered a correction phase and is now trading near $8.97. The key structure on the chart is the 6.96–7.48 zone, where FVG + OTE + MA100 align with the golden pocket. This is not just support - this is a higher timeframe demand zone where liquidity is expected to be taken.
Above, the chart clearly marks $9.93 and $13.96 as key levels. A breakout above $9.93 confirms a structural shift and opens the path toward $13.96, where the next liquidity cluster sits.
Momentum indicators confirm a compression phase rather than continuation down. ADX at 24.87 signals lack of strong trend, while DI- (20.56) only slightly exceeds DI+ (19.06) - bearish control is weakening. CCI at -139.65 shows deep oversold conditions, while CCI MA at 5.78 is already curling upward - an early sign of momentum shift. PVO at 0.85% indicates weak volume expansion, and Volume Delta at -2.27M confirms selling pressure without aggression.
This is the key insight: the market is selling - but not pushing lower.
Price is currently trading in a low-liquidity zone between key levels, which explains the lack of impulse. Such phases always resolve with expansion — the only question is from which level.
The scenario is clear.
Either price reclaims $9.93, confirming structure shift and targeting $13.96,
or it moves into the 6.96–7.48 confluence zone, where FVG, OTE, and MA100 align - forming the strongest entry zone on the chart.
These are not emotional entries. These are planned ones.
Joby is not about current profitability - it’s about execution of a new market. The company has capital, infrastructure, regulatory progress, and global contracts. The only missing piece is scale.
Markets don’t wait for profitability.
They reprice when inevitability becomes clear.
And that moment often comes earlier than expected. 
Long
Long
Short
EMAAR: Massive Gap and Rising Wedge Point to Further DownsideHi!
The daily chart for Emaar Properties reveals a significant shift in market sentiment. After a parabolic run, the stock suffered a violent gap down, and the current price action suggests this was not just a flash in the pan, but the start of a deeper corrective phase.
Technical Breakdown
The Exhaustion Gap: The massive gap down from the $17.00 level is the most striking feature of this chart. This is a clear "breakaway gap" that signals a total collapse of the previous bullish trend. These gaps often act as major resistance on any relief rallies, and as we can see, the price hasn't even come close to filling it.
Rising Wedge (Bearish Continuation): Following the initial crash, the stock has formed a Rising Wedge pattern. While it might look like a recovery to the untrained eye, this is a classic bearish continuation structure. The price is drifting higher on diminishing conviction, and the narrowing range indicates that the "Sales pressure" highlighted in the volume profile is starting to weigh heavy again.
Volume Confirmation: Notice the surge in volume during the initial drop (the yellow oval). High volume on a massive downward move confirms that institutional sellers were exiting positions. The subsequent bounce into the wedge has been on much lower relative volume, which typically precedes a breakdown.
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Outlook and Targets
The path of least resistance remains firmly to the downside. The rising wedge is a "ticking clock," and once the lower support line snaps, we expect the downward momentum to accelerate.
Primary Target (9.61): This is the immediate structural goal. It aligns with previous historical consolidation and acts as the first major safety net.
Secondary Demand Zone (8.80 – 8.90): If the 9.61 level fails to hold the slide, we are looking at a move into the grey demand zone. This area represents a critical long-term support floor where we might finally see significant buyer interest return.
Short
Webull (BULL) 1DWebull (BULL) is currently trading at a point where the company’s name feels almost ironic. The “bull” has been walking downhill for months, compressing inside a descending wedge, while investors wait for the earnings report on March 4, 2026 to decide whether this is capitulation or accumulation.
Webull is a digital brokerage platform focused on retail traders. Revenue is primarily driven by options trading, margin interest, payment for order flow, market data services, and premium subscriptions. In simple terms: when retail traders are active and volatility is high, Webull performs well. When markets cool down, earnings become unpredictable.
Recent quarterly results showed improvement. In Q3 2025, EPS came in at $0.07 versus expectations near $0.02. Revenue was approximately $156M compared to forecasts around $132M. That was a meaningful beat. However, trailing twelve-month profitability remains volatile. The company is transitioning from inconsistent losses toward operational stabilization, but it has not yet proven structural earnings durability.
Strategically , Webull continues expanding its mobile trading ecosystem, strengthening options infrastructure, enhancing subscription analytics tools, and broadening international access. The focus is shifting from pure user acquisition to deeper monetization and retention. The question heading into earnings is simple: can improved margins persist in a less euphoric market environment?
Technically , the chart shows a persistent downtrend: lower highs, lower lows, and a contracting descending wedge. Price is testing the 5.5–6.0 region - a historical support zone and potential accumulation area. The recent low around 5.47 marks the structural boundary.
RSI is emerging from oversold territory and showing early bullish divergence. Momentum histogram is contracting. ADX suggests weakening trend strength. Importantly, volume at the recent lows does not reflect panic capitulation. That often signals exhaustion rather than acceleration.
Key resistance levels sit at 7.96, 10.18, and 15.08. A strong earnings release could trigger short covering toward 8–10. A weak report, however, opens downside below 5.47.
BULL is not priced as a growth darling. It is priced as a company under skepticism. And that is often where asymmetric opportunities begin.
March 4 decides whether this wedge resolves upward - or confirms continuation.
Long
AdEx (ADX) · Experience leads to success · The daily grindAnybody that has been around long enough knows the potential of the market, you've seen it in action, and it happens over and over and over.
There is always a new sector that is growing, there is always a different sector that is growing; there is always growth.
I know opportunities are always present, here and there. Several times per year, opportunities are available everywhere.
How you approach the market can never be the same way in which I approach it. We have different backgrounds, different cultures, different lives, different likings, trading style, risk tolerance, access to certain pairs, etc.
A strategy needs to be developed to match my own individual circumstances.
I see all these opportunities and I make a plan that will work for me. It might work for you, but as soon as you implement it you will find things that you better not do, or aspects of the plan that can be improved and so on. As you do this, you end up with your own strategy.
The strategy can be something as simple as buying $2,000 of any an all projects with huge potential for growth, even if this means holding 100 coins long-term. Each time one moves, I get paid.
A strategy can be one single project, tracking the waves. Whenever support is reached, I buy also placing a long. Whenever resistance hits, I take profits and sell-short and so on.
The strategy can be mixed, can be done with bots, automated, live, long-term, short-term and so on. It all depends on you...
When the market is trending, it makes it that much easier to enter the market and trade. When the market isn't trending, we can focus on other areas of life, like personal growth, health, meditation and education. Between these we move back and forth.
The most important part is to read daily in order to grasp the market pulse. Not taking action, reading every single day. When you know everything that is happening always by looking at hundreds of projects, the opportunity and perfect timing will present itself.
You can never go wrong. There can be mistakes or a streak of sustained losses, but never a wrong approach.
Whatever we are doing, is the preparation for future success. If results are not good now, we will undoubtedly learn from everything that has taken place. Once the experiences are processed and digested, we perform better on the next trade.
Little by little, step by step, that's the way to win. Instead of one big win, a jackpot; daily improvements long-term.
In this way there is no way to crash. Wherever you are, that's where you belong. You got there through effort and hard work, not a lucky jump.
Namaste. 
Long
Long
A Practical “Noise Filter” Built from ADX + Efficiency + SlopeTrend Quality (0–100) - A Practical “Noise Filter” Built from ADX + Efficiency + Slope
Many traders ask the wrong question: “Is the market going up or down?”
A more useful first question is:
“Is the market *tradable* right now, or is it mostly noise?”
AG Pro Trend Quality is designed as a regime/context layer that helps answer exactly that.
Instead of outputting a single black‑box signal, it builds a 0–100 Trend Quality Score from three complementary ideas:
1) ADX (directional strength)
ADX captures whether price is moving with persistent directional intent rather than random back‑and‑forth.
2) Efficiency Ratio (ER)
Efficiency measures how “clean” the movement is: how much net progress the market makes versus how much it wiggles.
A strong trend is often efficient; chop is often inefficient.
3) EMA Slope (volatility‑adjusted)
Slope matters, but raw slope is misleading across symbols.
Here slope is normalized by ATR, which makes the score more comparable across assets and regimes.
How to read the score in real time
- Lower scores typically mean “CHOP risk”: more fakeouts, more whipsaw, less follow‑through.
- Higher scores typically mean “TREND potential”: moves that are more likely to continue and respect structure.
The script uses a threshold (0–100) to classify TREND vs CHOP, plus a small hysteresis band to reduce flip‑flop.
A professional workflow (simple and repeatable)
1) Use Trend Quality as a gate
Before you act on any setup, check whether the environment is CHOP or TREND.
This avoids forcing trend strategies in range conditions.
2) Tune the threshold to match your style
- Higher threshold = fewer TREND regimes (more selective, often cleaner).
- Lower threshold = more TREND regimes (more responsive, more noise).
Don’t chase perfection; aim for a stable process.
3) Decide what “good enough” means
You don’t need the maximum score to trade.
You need a score that supports your playbook and risk model.
Limitations
No scoring system can eliminate risk. Sudden volatility shocks, news events, and regime transitions can break any trend condition quickly.
Risk disclosure
Educational content only. Not financial advice. CME Group (CME) — Trend Continuation Buy, Size with DisciplineBias: Bullish (Trend Continuation – Strength)
Setup Type: Pullback within Uptrend
Entry Zone: 320.43 – 321.77
Target: 362.46
Timeframe Context: 4H / Daily
Executive Summary
We are initiating a Buy on CME within the defined entry zone (320.43–321.77), targeting 362.46. The broader structure remains constructive, supported by healthy trend strength and accelerating medium-term momentum. However, short-term internals are extended, so this is a measured conviction trade, not an aggressive chase.
Technical Structure
Trend Strength
ADX ~36 → Established, healthy trend regime.
Price structure remains intact with higher highs / higher lows.
Momentum
4H MACD accelerating → Positive momentum expansion.
Daily RSI ~70 → Overbought territory; risk of short-term pullback or sideways digestion.
Volatility Context
Price ~2.4 ATR above EMA20 → Extended from mean.
Increased probability of near-term retracement or consolidation before continuation.
This is a continuation setup, but not early-cycle — we are entering while trend is mature but still structurally sound.
Trade Plan
Entry: 320.43 – 321.77
Primary Target: 362.46
Structure: Trend continuation toward prior expansion leg projection
Expect chop or shallow pullbacks before expansion resumes.
Risk Management
Key monitoring variables:
Sudden deterioration in order-flow
ADX rollover signaling trend decay
MACD momentum loss on 4H
Material negative news flow
If trend strength fades or momentum diverges meaningfully, de-risk early.
Given:
Elevated RSI
Distance from EMA20
Proximity to recent expansion leg
→ Position sizing should be moderate (not full risk allocation).
Narrative & Sentiment Backdrop
Order-flow: Normal / stable.
Company-level catalysts: Supportive.
Third-party coverage: Mildly constructive tone.
Macro sentiment backdrop does not conflict with the setup.
Conclusion
CME remains structurally bullish within a confirmed trend regime. While internals are extended, the setup aligns with a controlled trend continuation thesis toward 362.46. 
Long
SOFI 1W: A digital bank correcting - not breakingSoFi Technologies is building a full-scale digital financial ecosystem: lending, deposits, investing, fintech infrastructure - all under one platform. Traditional banks scale through branches. SoFi scales through code and operating leverage.
On the weekly chart, a strong impulsive rally completed into the 30–32 zone, followed by a structured correction. Price is now approaching the key 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire impulse near 15.12. This level aligns with ascending diagonal support and MA100, creating technical confluence.
The 14.5–16.0 range is the critical demand zone. Momentum indicators are showing early bullish divergence - price is pressing lower while oscillators fail to confirm new downside momentum, signaling weakening bearish pressure. Volume during the pullback is contracting relative to the prior expansion phase, suggesting corrective behavior rather than distribution. ADX is declining, indicating compression after expansion, not structural breakdown.
If the 0.618 level holds, the primary upside scenario targets 29.00 — previous resistance and high-volume node. A weekly close below 14 would weaken the bullish structure.
Fundamentally, the company continues to scale:
• Quarterly revenue increased from ~419M to 1.34B
• TTM revenue approximately 4.77B
• Q1 2026 revenue estimate: 1.05B USD
• Q1 2026 EPS estimate: 0.12 USD
• Net income turned positive
• Operating margins stabilizing around 15%+
• Debt ratios improving
This is no longer a turnaround story - it’s operational expansion.
No fluff, just alpha 🚀 
Long
BTCUSDT – Bearish Regime, No Long Until Structure RepairedPosture: Defensive / Capital Preservation
Thesis
We are not initiating a position at current levels and waiting for a signal.
The market remains in a high-trend, downside-favored regime. Price is trading below all relevant moving averages:
SMA200 ≈ 99,630
SMA50 ≈ 82,612
EMA20 ≈ 71,587
This is not noise — this is structural damage.
ADX ~58 confirms strong directional pressure. In a high-ADX environment, fading the trend is statistically low expectancy. RSI ~46 reflects weak momentum with no oversold edge. Liquidity context (ETF outflows + macro risk-off) aligns with technical breakdown.
This is a trend continuation environment, not a bottoming environment.
Structure & Order Flow
- Rejection cluster: 70–71k (EMA20 / failed reclaim zone)
- Price unable to hold above short-term dynamic resistance
- Lower highs intact
- Liquidity thinning into support
Until we see absorption and a structural reclaim, the path of least resistance remains down.
Key Levels
Resistance:
70,942 (EMA20 + recent rejection band)
82,611 (SMA50 – structural pivot)
Support:
60,000 (critical horizontal level)
Below 60k, the market opens risk toward accelerated downside continuation. Under stressed liquidity conditions, extension into low-40k region becomes technically consistent with current regime.
What Changes the Bias?
Bullish invalidation requires:
- Daily close above EMA20 (~71.5k)
- Sustained reclaim of 70–71k zone
- Expansion move toward SMA50 (~82.6k)
- Declining ADX during consolidation (trend exhaustion signal)
- Without those conditions, longs are premature.
Trade Plan
Current setup: No actionable entry.
This is a capital preservation phase.
Aggressive traders may look for short continuation on failed reclaim attempts into 70–71k, but that requires clear lower-timeframe rejection confirmation and defined risk.
No swing long until structure improves.
Risk Factors to Monitor
- ETF flow reversal
- Fed tone shift
- Sudden liquidity injection
- Order flow shift from distribution → absorption
Until those variables change, the regime remains bearish.
Conclusion:
Trend is intact to the downside. ADX confirms strength. Structure is broken. Stand aside or trade continuation — do not anticipate reversal without confirmation.
Not financial advice. Manage risk accordingly. 
Short
Long
Long
Long
ARAM - Correction Ending, New Impulse Loading?About ARAM🔎
- ARAM Group is a UAE-listed company on ADX, operating primarily in industrial, construction, and contracting-related services.
- The company is positioned within sectors tied to infrastructure development and regional growth projects.
- Given the UAE’s long-term expansion plans and ongoing infrastructure initiatives, companies like ARAM operate in structurally important segments of the economy.
Fundamental Analysis🗞
- From a broader perspective:
• ARAM benefits from infrastructure-driven demand in the region 🏗️
• Exposure to government-backed development projects
• Cyclical upside during expansion phases of the economy
• Potential operating leverage during strong project cycles
- Infrastructure and industrial stocks tend to move in waves, quiet accumulation phases followed by strong impulsive expansions.
The question now is: are we entering a new expansion leg?
Technical Analysis📊
- Technically, ARAM has been trading within a wide range for years.
Price recently reacted strongly from the major blue support zone, a level that has historically acted as a solid demand area.
After that reaction, we saw a clear impulse to the upside 🚀 followed by a corrective move inside the falling red channel.
Now price is attempting to complete this correction.
- As long as the blue support structure continues to hold, we will be looking for long setups targeting the upper red resistance zone.
However, for a full bullish continuation and a new major impulse phase 📈, a confirmed break above the falling red corrective channel is required.
Correction… or reload before the next expansion?
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr 
Long
AGTHIA - Long-Term Compression Near Major Support!About AGTHIA 🔎
- Agthia Group PJSC ADX:AGTHIA is one of the leading food and beverage companies in the UAE, listed on ADX.
- The company operates across water, flour, animal feed, dairy, protein, snacks, and packaged foods, serving regional and international markets.
- Over the years, Agthia has evolved from a traditional supplier into a diversified FMCG player with strong brand recognition across the GCC.
Fundamental Analysis🗞
- From a business perspective, Agthia benefits from:
• Exposure to defensive sectors like food & beverages 🛡️
• Strong regional demand driven by population growth
• Expansion through acquisitions and product diversification
• Alignment with the UAE’s food security strategy
- Food and beverage companies tend to show relative stability compared to cyclical sectors, making AGTHIA structurally interesting for long-term investors.
Technical Analysis📊
- Technically, AGTHIA has been trading for years inside a massive symmetrical triangle marked in blue!
This long-term compression reflects a major accumulation phase between buyers and sellers.
Now price is retesting the lower bound of the triangle, a key structural support zone.
- As long as this lower boundary holds, we will be looking for long setups targeting the upper bound of the triangle.📈
However, for the bulls to fully take over and trigger a strong expansion phase 🚀, a break above the last major high marked in red is needed.
After years of compression…
Is expansion finally coming? 👀
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr 
Long
ETHUSDT — Mean Reversion Long SetupWe are initiating a BUY on ETHUSDT within the defined entry zone 1946.78–1982.12, following the Mean Reversion strategy. The setup is supported by high technical conviction, a deeply oversold RSI structure, and bullish order-flow absorption combined with very low volume during the recent pullback, indicating consolidation rather than active distribution.
Trend strength (ADX) remains elevated, suggesting that once direction stabilizes, moves may accelerate. While strong ADX environments can prolong downside swings, the confluence of oversold momentum, declining selling pressure, and improving sentiment — supported by institutional and fundamental catalysts — creates a good risk/reward configuration favoring upside mean reversion.
Trade Plan
Entry zone: 1946.78 – 1982.12
Stop-loss: 1713
Primary target: 2415.42
Extended resistance / conservative macro target: 2994.38
Expected duration: ~3–8 days
Risk/Reward: ~1:2
Risk Factors / Monitoring
Macro liquidity tightening or ETF flow reversals that weaken demand
Order-flow deterioration from Absorption → Churn/Supply
Sudden regulatory, macro, or security-driven negative catalysts
Unless order flow shifts decisively to supply or sentiment deteriorates materially, the operational plan is to enter within the specified zone and manage the position toward the stated targets using disciplined stop placement. 
Long
