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Not as Bullish as it Seems - ES Futures Its not often that you see this many points of control unfilled. I have removed the Volume Profile to make a point. When the market finished with a level, often it will return to it to "check it off" - as shown in the red circles. There are buyers waiting there and liquidity - after all that was the most traded price for that day. Sometimes I've noticed - that there will be a close double line that goes untouched. Much like accounting - it means work completed. Price will move much higher. This isn't anything I've been taught but after looking screens for years something I've observed, we have that here too. Bottom line these lines get filled - but when I see this many, I get a little concerned. What's going on that we are not hearing in the news. Japanese Bond market blowing up? Dems won't has a budget? Point is something is going on. Actionable idea? Sure buy a Call Bear spread in the SPX at the money (Remember the ES is about 50 points higher than the SPX)- 30 days out and target the highest Point of Control under the yesterdays - with a 20 Point spread at the money the risk/reward is your favor. Most likely than that one will get filled - in the next 7 days but 30 days gives you time.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Maximilianned
$YPF: Sell Argentine stocks, and sell shortGM gents, it seems that Argentine stock market peaked, the signs were there for a few months and it only got worse since the Buenos Aires province election that showed a devastating victory by the opposition to Milei's "libertarian" crusade. Back in August 2022, it became clear NYSE:YPF would surge for 10 quarters in a row, and the time for this trend expired, odds of a reversal or long term consolidation are very high since December 2024. Now the monthly has traced a big distribution pattern, which can culminate in a sharp break down during October (which lines up with mid term elections which will likely be won by the Peronist party). This makes Argentine stocks and bonds extremely risky, going forward, similarly to what what happened in 2018 when Macri's bull market turned sour. FX_IDC:USDARS is trending up as well, breaking above the Central Bank's upper flotation band at $1400 Pesos per Dollar, which complicates matters further. The government has little room to maneuver after wasting tons of precious hard currency reserves in manipulating prices to keep an artificially inflated Peso and maintain disinflation at the behest of employment. Crossing fingers (I live here), I'm really not too optimistic about the local market now. Best of luck (to us all), Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:YPFShort
by IvanLabrie
1
Potential $SPY Pullback AnalysisOverview This section examines the possibility of a pullback in SPY, based on recent price movements and historical trends. Current Price Stretch Relative to Moving Average SPY is currently trading approximately 9.5% above its 30-week moving average. This level of extension is notable, as it approaches the threshold observed during previous pullbacks. Historical Context Looking back, the last significant instance when SPY was stretched about 10% above its 30-week moving average resulted in a pullback toward the end of March 2024. This comparison provides context for the current market situation. Observational Note It is worth noting that a confirmed closing price for the current week has not yet been established. This analysis is not a prediction, but rather an observation intended to increase awareness of market conditions.
AMEX:SPY
by jaxdog
XHB - Housing Is In Real Trouble - My Short explained🏠 Some Facts & Fundamentals first 🏠 The Fed has made its first rate cut in 2025, and more are expected if inflation remains under control. That could put downward pressure on long-term mortgage rates, which may give the market a little boost. Builders (like Lennar) are 🏚️ facing profit pressure 🏚️ due to affordability and are offering incentives (rate buydowns, other discounts) to spur demand. 📈 Now to the technicals 📉 Price went up to the Centerline. The 80% rule played out like textbook. Then it closed above the Centerline, and failed to move further up to the U-MLH, which is a loud 🚨 warning sign 🚨. And finally, we have a confirmed "Hagopian", when we close below the Centerline this Week. To me it's all perfect in line - I mean, the TA & Fundamentals. My plan is, to play XHB short with LEAP Options (182 Days) and take profit on the way down, which is at the Centerline, 1/4 Line and the L-MLH. Of cours I would bail out or hedge, if price open & close again above the Centerline on the weekly time frame Chart. ⚠️ Stay updated ⚠️ I will start something new in one or two weeks, so you better don't miss it and follow! §8-) ❤️ THANK YOU ALL ❤️ ...for the Boosts and Follow from this week. Your feedback is what makes it worth to post! I wish you all a relaxing and happy weekend §8-)
AMEX:XHBShort
by HowToChart
3
What will happen next?Gold has been following a pattern since February 2024. Let's see how long it lasts and what will break it. Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:GOLD
by AustrianTradingMachine
Gold Breaks Out of Range, Targeting Higher Resistance📊 Market Developments: After consolidating in the 3643–3658 range, gold has broken out, moving up to 3665 in the US session. The rally is supported by safe-haven flows as expectations grow for further Fed easing, while the USD shows signs of stabilizing. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance: 3672–3675 (a breakout could extend toward 3685–3692). • Nearest Support: 3658 (the breakout level) — if successfully retested, it may turn into new support. • EMA 09: Price is now above EMA09 → confirming short-term bullish momentum. • Candles / Volume / Momentum: A strong H1 breakout candle with higher volume confirms buyer dominance. 📌 Outlook: • Gold has exited the sideways range and is trending higher in the short term. • Holding above 3658 keeps the upside bias intact toward 3672–3685. • Downside risk only emerges if price falls back below 3658. 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: • BUY XAU/USD at: 3658–3662 (on a retest after breakout) 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips ❌ SL: 3654 • SELL short-term only if a strong reversal signal appears around 3675–3685.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
TRUMP Possible breakoutBINANCE:TRUMPUSDT Current Status The overall trend is bearish, but there's a strong and solid support zone between $8 and $8.50. On the daily timeframe, this support is still valid and has not been broken yet. Right now, we have a descending trendline that the price is trying to break for the umpteenth time, and we're seeing another attempt today. There's a chance the descending trendline could break, or it could fail and lead to a drop. In either case, the price of $8.45 could be a good spot for a long position with a 1:3.5 risk-to-reward ratio. Personally, I never enter a position the moment a trendline breaks. I always wait for the price to come back to my desired entry point, which happens most of the time. ⛔ Disclaimer: This is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy. Please do your own research.
Long
by Madoir
AVAX Nearing Key Resistance ZoneAVAX USDT Daily: Price Nearing Key Resistance Zone BINANCE:AVAXUSDT has demonstrated a strong upward trend, breaking through a significant, long-term resistance level that has been in place since early in the year. This breakout is a bullish signal, and it's exciting to see the momentum it's carried. However, the price is now approaching a new, crucial resistance zone between $34.56 and $38.16. This area previously acted as strong support before a significant downtrend. Based on my analysis, I anticipate a potential rejection from this zone, which could lead to a correction toward the previous resistance-turned-support area around $23.06 to $25.78. The short-term outlook suggests a possible pullback from the current levels, but the overall market structure looks promising as long as the price holds above the recently broken resistance. I'll be watching for a clear reaction in this resistance zone to confirm the potential move. What do you think? Drop your thoughts and analysis in the comments below!
by Madoir
Ethereum Triangle Breakout Trap – Bear Market FocusEthereum (ETHUSD) has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, but an early breakout has already taken place before the structure was fully completed. Historically, such premature breakouts during the end phase of a crypto cycle often hint towards a bearish trend continuation. Looking at past bear market cycles, there is a possibility that Ethereum could enter a deeper corrective phase in 2026, aligning with historical crypto market patterns. The key support zones to watch remain at $3000, $2300, and $1800, which could act as major levels in the upcoming months. On the upside, Ethereum faces strong resistance between $4700 and $4900, where short setups become more favorable. For risk management, a stop loss above $5200 is recommended. Long positions have already been closed, and the focus now shifts towards short opportunities at resistance zones. 📌 This setup provides a clear risk-reward strategy for traders who are closely monitoring ETH price action in relation to cycle completion and historical bear market patterns. 👉 Follow me on TradingView for more crypto market insights, technical analysis, and trading updates. Share your thoughts in the comments – your feedback helps shape future analysis!
CRYPTO:ETHUSD
by Houseofcryptokings
1
Opening (IRA): ETHA November 21st 29 Covered Call... for a 27.31 debit. Comments: Building a position, laddering out at intervals over time, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 27.31/share Max Profit: 1.69 ($169) ROC at Max: 6.19% Will generally start to look to take profit at 50% of max, but have recently just been letting these run nearly to expiry ... .
NASDAQ:ETHALong
by NaughtyPines
GBPUSD | Consolidation Above 1.35 – Breakout or Breakdown?Macro Hook: Sterling turned higher after the BoE’s hawkish lean in early August. Since then, Cable has been driven by two forces: UK’s sticky inflation (slowing the BoE’s path to cutting rates) and softer US data (feeding expectations of Fed cuts and a weaker dollar). Yesterday’s softer US PPI hinted at easing price pressures upstream, and today’s Core CPI will decide whether that dovish Fed story holds or gets challenged. Technical Lens: The breakout from the descending channel created an impulse leg higher, and price is now consolidating in a corrective flag above the 1.35 handle. The 20/50 MAs remain supportive, showing trend momentum is still in play as long as 1.35 holds. Scenarios: If Core CPI comes in line or softer → USD stays pressured, Cable could break the corrective channel to the upside and continue its September climb. If Core CPI surprises hot → Fed cut bets may be pared back, boosting USD and risking a Cable drop under 1.35 back toward old resistance/now support. Catalysts: US Core CPI today — sticky vs soft outcome will shape Fed cut pricing. UK CPI mid-Sept — could confirm whether inflation remains sticky enough to delay BoE easing. Fed FOMC later this month — tone and dot-plot guidance key for USD direction. Takeaway: 1.35 is the decision point. Hold above, and the bullish impulse stays alive. Lose it, and the correction deepens — especially if US inflation surprises on the hot side.
by AlchemyMarkets
FICO and the FedNow that NYSE:UNH has started to pick up due to the shares acquired by many large names, we need to turn our attention to companies not yet in the news cycle. One of these companies is NYSE:FICO , which handles credit worthiness scores. But why, in a time where home buyers and consumers are being crushed at every turn, would a credit solutions agency be a good buy? The answer is because it is forward looking, and we are looking toward a time of, more likely than not, lower interest rates. First let’s look at the charts... As you can see, from the all-time high, FICO is at a 40% discount. So, we are following the universal rule of buying low. Now all we must do is sell high. Based on Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, we can see that the Fed is gearing up to cut interest rates. You can also see this is the case with the amount of debt-buying taking place in the bond market... So, the problem is not IF they'll cut rates, but WHEN and by how much. In agreement with what most people see coming, expect the next meeting to lead to a 25 bps drop in the $FRED:FEDFUNDS. When this happens, you can also expect the credit agencies to blast off onto the horizon. (Written before Sep 16-17 meeting) Before we get to the exit plan, we do have some housekeeping. It should be noted that FICO, in the practical sense, is no longer a monopoly. Equifax has been approved for its rating system by the government, so this trade does not come without risk. The good news is that as rates get lowered we can expect more people to take on more debt (because it is cheaper), which will boost the demand for FICO's rating abilities. We should aim for a timeframe before the next earnings call to get out of this trade, but the usual target of 3 to 6 months remains as the timeframe for holding this position. A longer period can be justified based off any unusual performance. The price target will be set at $2,000.
NYSE:FICOLong
by addatheriver0808
Gold – TP1 Achieved! What’s Next? (Case Study Series)Timeframe: 30M | Instrument: Gold Spot (XAUUSD) | Date: Sept 18, 2025 📌 Quick Recap (From Previous Posts) Part 1 (Initial Idea): Identified a Head & Shoulders pattern on the 15M chart. Suggested a standby long entry near $3,665–$3,658, but only with higher TF confirmation. Part 2 (Market Response): Price respected our entry zone, reversed higher, and gave us a 200+ pip bounce. 👉 Both updates stressed the importance of confirmation and avoiding false breakouts in Gold. 📊 Current Outcome (Sept 18, 2025) ✅ TP1 ($3,701) has now been achieved. 📈 Total Move Captured: ~400+ pips from entry. 🔄 After hitting TP1, price pulled back strongly, retesting lower supports ($3,657 / $3,630 zones). This confirms that Gold remains highly volatile — respecting both sides of the market, trapping late buyers and sellers. 🧐 Next Steps – TP2 Still in Play? Bullish Scenario: If $3,630–$3,615 holds, buyers may target TP2 ($3,765) in the coming sessions. Bearish Risk: If $3,615 breaks, downside momentum could drag Gold toward $3,604 / $3,549. 📌 Key Lessons (Continuing the Case Study) Structured Targets Work: Splitting TP1 and TP2 gave clarity in trade management. Booking Partial Profits = Peace of Mind: Locking profits at TP1 helps traders avoid emotional stress during pullbacks. Volatility is Opportunity + Risk: Gold respects technical zones but punishes impatience. 🎯 Trade Management Guidance ✅ For those still holding: Trail stops to $3,630 to protect gains. ✅ For new entries: Wait for fresh confirmation near support zones before considering longs again. ❌ Avoid chasing the market after such strong moves. ✅ Conclusion Our case study series on XAUUSD continues to highlight the importance of: Planning entries with patience Taking profits in phases Adjusting to market volatility 👉 TP1 hit successfully, ~400 pips captured. Now the market decides: Will TP2 ($3,765) be achieved, or is Gold preparing a deeper correction? 🔖 Tags #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingCaseStudy #HeadAndShoulders #PriceAction #RiskManagement #MultiTimeframeAnalysis #Tradyoga #Yogeshonale
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by Tradyoga
1
EURUSD remains under pressure, potential for further decline?EURUSD remains under pressure as fragile growth in Europe, particularly in Germany, clashes with persistent inflation that keeps the ECB from cutting rates. Meanwhile, the dollar pared its recent decline due to relative US resilience, though a dovish Fed outlook may limit any gains on the dollar. For now, rallies look capped, with the bias tilted lower until Europe shows clearer signs of recovery. EURUSD slide lower following a break below the ascending trendline. The pair remains under pressure with lower swings reinforcing the potential for a further decline. If EURUSD breaks the support at 1.1720, the price could extend its decline toward the following support at 1.1680. Conversely, a retracement above 1.1720 may prompt a retest of the resistance at 1.1800. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
Short
by lixing_gan
Gold (XAUUSD) – 19 Sep | Crucial Zone, Watching for Next Move🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 19 September Market Context • Gold is currently trading near the H4 Higher Low (HL) zone , suggesting the H4 pullback phase may be nearing completion. • Yesterday, price action respected our key levels beautifully — both the M15 demand zone (3644–3637) and the M15 LH + Day High zone (3668–3672) offered excellent setups. • Market has now printed a Break of Structure (BoS) below 3637, confirming M15 is currently in a downtrend. Key Observations • Price is in a pullback phase within the M15 downtrend. • H4 Context: Price is near HL support, which is also the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level — a critical area to watch for a potential uptrend resumption. Execution Plan • Short Setup Zones:  • 3654.8–3659.3 (fractal pullback zone).  • 3667–3673 (M15 LH + supply zone).   – A breakout and strong close above this zone would signal potential upside trend resumption → no more shorts. • Long Setup Zone:  • 3621–3613 (H4 HL zone) — wait for price to reach and respect this level with M1/LTF confirmation before planning longs. Trading Bias • Neutral-to-Bearish for now — shorts are valid only if POI zones are respected. • Longs will be considered only from deeper H4 HL zone with confirmation. Today’s approach: Observe with stillness — let price reveal its direction before committing. 📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ChartIsMirror