BTCUSD GREATLY Follows THIS Historical Fractal Formation!Hello Community,
welcome to my analysis of BTCUSD from a weekly timeframe perspective. The historical fractal formation that I spotted with BTCUSD is an important formation that is guiding the upcoming price action of BTCUSD. I have outlined this formation already before outlining the important levels and scenarios to consider. At the moment, BTCUSD is already following this whole fractal once again, increasing the potential for a massive bullish expansion to emerge.
Since my introduction of the major fractal formation, BTCUSD pulled back from the neckline and increased bearish pressure to the downside. The rejection off the neckline was almost perfect and also matched the EMA resistance. Now, BTCUSD is already continuing to approach the lower levels of the descending wedge formation. When the ascending uptrend line is met again, this will lead to a solid lower level of the head of this pivotal inverse head-shoulder formation.
Also, the MACD pattern shows a high similarity with the historical MACD fractal as well. Historically, the MACD also determined the reversing MACD divergence during the forming of the head-shoulder formation. This exact pattern is forming now once again. The MACD is forming higher highs while the head-shoulder formation continues to be completed. There is still supply in the market that hasn't been sold yet. In order for the head to complete appropriately, it is necessary that the remaining supply is sold for BTCUSD to approach the ascending uptrend line.
In this manner, thank you a lot for watching!
The support is highly appreciated.
VP
Bitcointrading
Bitcoin BTC price analysis for August 2026It's been more than two weeks since we published our previous #Bitcoin outlook.
And honestly... not much has changed.
During this period, buyers have successfully defended the $62,500 level on OKX:BTCUSDT four separate times. At this point, it no longer looks like coincidence—it looks like a deliberate defense of a major support zone.
That said, neither side appears to have a decisive advantage. Trading volumes remain relatively low, both bulls and bears seem exhausted, and the market continues to grind sideways.
Still, if we had to pick a side today, we'd say the short-term momentum slightly favors the bulls.
That's why our base scenario for August remains unchanged.
We still expect Bitcoin to test the $69,000–71,000 area before anything more significant happens.
And after that...
Well, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. 😄
Crypto has a habit of surprising everyone just when things start looking obvious.
💬 Do you think CRYPTOCAP:BTC has enough strength to reach $69K–71K, or is one final shakeout still ahead?
______________
◆ Follow us ❤️ for daily crypto insights & updates!
🚀 Don’t miss out on important market moves
🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud
BTC/USD: Channel Breakdown & Retest | Targeting SSL Target ?Trade Setup: Bearish Rejection at Supply Zone (SMC Setup)
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 1H timeframe is showing clear signs of potential bearish continuation after a breakdown from an ascending channel structure.
Key Technical Observations:
Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) Swept: The recent rally to the $65,000 mark successfully cleared buy-side liquidity, creating a local top.
Ascending Channel Breakdown: Price action broke out of the rising channel structure, signaling loss of bullish momentum.
Supply Zone Retest: BTC is currently pulling back to retest the newly formed Supply Zone ($64,600 - $64,750).
Market Structure Alignment: Prior price action established key levels via previous Liquidity Sweeps, CHOCH, and MSS, setting up this distribution phase.
Trade Execution Plan:
Bias: Bearish / Short
Entry Zone: $64,500 – $64,750 (Inside the Supply Zone)
Target (TP): $63,750 (Sell-Side Liquidity / Support Level)
Stop Loss (SL): Above the BSL / Local High (~$65,100+)
BTCUSD: Demand zone sustains the bullish scenarioBTCUSD remains within a consolidation range, yet the price structure stays intact as the $62,400 level continues to effectively absorb selling pressure. Having previously triggered a distinct market reaction, this support zone could serve as a springboard for a rebound by the bulls.
The macroeconomic backdrop is also leaning slightly positive, driven by a weakening US dollar, cooling US yields, and improving risk appetite. These factors continue to provide short-term support for Bitcoin.
If the $62,400 level holds and the price clears immediate resistance, BTCUSD could extend its rally toward $66,400. Conversely, a decisive break below this support level would undermine the current bullish outlook.
BTCUSD: Bullish Trend Remains Intact After Support RetestAs a trader with over five years of experience, I believe BTCUSD retains a bullish edge. Following a pullback to the uptrend line, buying pressure quickly returned, and the price continued to form higher lows, indicating that buyers remain in control of the primary structure.
The macroeconomic outlook is also leaning positive; expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve are weighing on the US dollar, while improved risk appetite is driving capital back into the cryptocurrency market. These factors could continue to bolster Bitcoin's upward momentum in the short term.
If BTCUSD holds the support zone around $62,800, I expect the price to push toward the $66,500 area to retest a key resistance level. Conversely, a failure to hold this support would undermine the bullish scenario and open the door for a deeper correction.
BTCUSD: How this Pattern Could Prevent a Total Meltdown!Hello There,
welcome to my new analysis about BTCUSD from a weekly timeframe perspective. BTCUSD in the past weeks and months experienced heavy meltdowns, massive price declines, and increased volatility, with smart money market operators dumping their shares onto the market. Now there is still supply remaining, which should not be underestimated. Only some movements from big wallets dumping their holdings could cause the price to drop enormously.
Therefore, BTCUSD is still in a very crucial state in which a bearish price increase could lead to BTCUSD visiting risky low levels. Especially when considering the pattern that BTCUSD is forming over the past price movements. BTCUSD formed several bear flags with massive breakdowns towards the downside. BTCUSD already completed two bear flags within the past weeks. Usually, such patterns evolve into three bear flags in a row. Now BTCUSD is already forming the third one.
It is not unlikely that this next bear flag completes within the upcoming time, setting BTCUSD up for the next major bearish move. Once this formation has been completed, as seen in my chart, BTCUSD is likely to test the remaining zones as marked in my chart first. This will be a highly crucial dynamic because it will determine if BTCUSD drops further or manages to somehow reverse within the structure.
In any case, the completion of the bear flag formation within the upcoming times is highly likely. It will be highly important then how BTCUSD approaches the lower zones. If BTCUSD should increase momentum so heavily that it drops below the crucial zone, into the bearish drop continuation range, marked in red in my chart, this will cause the bearish dynamic to continue towards the downside. At the moment, this scenario should not be underestimated.
Considering the scenario in which BTCUSD holds the lower levels and manages to bounce within this area, as it is marked in my chart, a completion of this gigantic pattern could activate the initial target zones as marked in my chart. From there on BTCUSD has the ability to visit the upper levels again which will lead to a potential trade on the long side with considerable profit potential on the long side.
Next time, it will be highly decisive to watch how BTCUSD completes this bear flag and approaches the mentioned zones. I will also watch out for massive wallet movements, which could point the price into the bearish direction more heavily. It will be a highly decisive phase in which BTCUSD will move into, so I am going to consider any meaningful updates in this regard.
In this manner, thank you a lot for watching!
The support is highly appreciated.
VP
BTCUSDT Rejected at Trendline, Bearish Bias Below Resistance
BTCUSDT remains under pressure after failing to break above the descending trendline, keeping the short-term market structure bearish. Price has bounced from the recent low, but the recovery is now approaching a confluence of resistance formed by the descending trendline and the 63,600–63,900 supply zone.
Unless buyers can reclaim this resistance area with strong momentum, the current rebound is likely to be a corrective move within the broader downtrend. A rejection from the trendline could trigger another leg lower toward the 62,850 intraday support.
The key confirmation for sellers is a decisive hourly close below 62,850. Such a breakdown would expose the 62,400 major support, with further downside possible if bearish momentum accelerates. Conversely, a sustained breakout above the descending trendline and 63,900 would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift the bias toward 64,200–64,900.
Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: 63,600–63,700
Major Resistance: 63,900–64,900
Intraday Support: 62,850
Major Support: 62,400
Bias: Bearish below the descending trendline
Invalidation: Hourly close above 63,900 with strong bullish confirmation
BTCUSDT Rejected at Trendline, Bearish Bias Below Resistance
BTCUSDT remains under pressure after failing to break above the descending trendline, keeping the short-term market structure bearish. Price has bounced from the recent low, but the recovery is now approaching a confluence of resistance formed by the descending trendline and the 63,600–63,900 supply zone.
Unless buyers can reclaim this resistance area with strong momentum, the current rebound is likely to be a corrective move within the broader downtrend. A rejection from the trendline could trigger another leg lower toward the 62,850 intraday support.
The key confirmation for sellers is a decisive hourly close below 62,850. Such a breakdown would expose the 62,400 major support, with further downside possible if bearish momentum accelerates. Conversely, a sustained breakout above the descending trendline and 63,900 would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift the bias toward 64,200–64,900.
Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: 63,600–63,700
Major Resistance: 63,900–64,900
Intraday Support: 62,850
Major Support: 62,400
Bias: Bearish below the descending trendline
Invalidation: Hourly close above 63,900 with strong bullish confirmation
BTCUSD: Massive Bear Flag, Huge Bearish Wave Setup!Hello There,
welcome to my new analysis about BTCUSD on the 4-hour timeframe perspective. BTCUSD is still in a highly crucial phase, which could lead to the bearish situation to accelerate in the upcoming times. In this current dynamic, I have spotted pivotal signs that are highly important to consider. Especially if further bearish pressure unfolds, this could lead to a trade on the short side to profit from falling prices.
As when looking at my chart, we can watch there how BTCUSD is trading within this bearish descending channel development. It has a massive bearish resistance within the descending trendline from where it already pulled to the downside and accelerated heavy bearish pressure. Right now, it is approaching this line again and is likely to set up the next bearish wave from this point of view.
The crucial phase of this whole formation will come when BTCUSD bounces below the lower boundary of the formation and forms this bearish setup seen in my chart. Once this has been completed, BTCUSD is going to activate the bear flag target zone as marked in my chart. If bearish volume should increase, this is going to accelerate the bearish dynamic.
In this manner, thank you a lot for watching!
The support is highly appreciated.
VP
BTC/USD: Demand Zone Retest Before Bullish Expansion to $64,750 BTC/USD: Long Opportunity from Demand Zone Retest
Market Overview:
Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) on the 1-Hour timeframe presents a compelling long setup as price action consolidates following a strong recovery from the lower $62,600 support region.
After completing a Head & Shoulders pattern and an upward channel break earlier in the week, price established a firm higher-low structural trendline. We are now observing consolidation right below local resistance.
Technical Breakdown:
Current Price Action: Hovering near $64,450, under immediate resistance.
Key Demand Zone: $63,800 – $64,150 (Purple Support Box).
Resistance / Target: $64,650 – $64,750.
Trade Plan:
Strategy: Wait for price to pull back into the Demand Zone ($63,800 – $64,150) to fill orders and sweep liquidity. Look for bullish confirmation candles (hammer, bullish engulfing, or lower timeframe market structure shift) within this box.
Entry: Near $63,900 – $64,100 (inside the Demand Zone).
Target (TP): $64,650 – $64,750 (Resistance Line).
Invalidation / Stop Loss (SL): Below $63,500 (A breakdown below the SMC trendline invalidates this bullish outlook).
BTC | The Key Level Breaks — Structure Flips On The 1H!
By analyzing the #Bitcoin chart on the 1H timeframe, we can see that price has flipped the script on our previous roadmap — and it's important to be honest about that. In our last update, we expected price to tap the Key Level and most likely reject lower. Price did tap the zone, but this time it refused to respect it: instead of rejecting, BTC pushed straight through and printed a CHoCH, breaking the Protected High that had been capping the entire structure.
📊 Daily / 4H Timeframe
Zooming out first for context: on the Daily and 4H, the broader trend is still technically bearish, and price has not yet reclaimed the higher-timeframe structure. This is the critical backdrop — the higher timeframe has not confirmed a full reversal yet, so what we're seeing on the 1H is an early shift that still needs the bigger picture to catch up.
⏱️ 1H Timeframe
On the 1H, the structure has clearly shifted. After a series of bearish BOS and a liquidity sweep below the range ("Liquidity Taken"), price reclaimed and broke the Protected High at $61,990.83 with a CHoCH — that level is now broken and flipped. This is the first genuine bullish signal we've had in a while on this timeframe.
From here, the nearest scenario — should price pull back and print a fresh bullish BOS — is a push higher to take the buy-side liquidity (Bsl) resting overhead at $67,323.46 . From that level, two paths open up: either price rejects and rolls back over, or it continues even higher toward the Daily Flip Zone ( $72,362.88 – $74,694.35 ), and delivers the heavier rejection from there.
🎯 The Bias
The 1H has flipped bullish in the short term, but the Daily and 4H remain bearish overall. My base case is a corrective pullback followed by a push up toward the Bsl at $67,323 — but I'm treating this as a liquidity run into higher supply, not a confirmed trend change, until the higher timeframes reclaim structure. The invalidation for the short-term bullish idea is a break back below the broken Protected High that turns it back into resistance.
📰 Fundamental Backdrop
This structural break has a very real catalyst behind it. A notably weak U.S. jobs report just landed, slashing the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike roughly in half — and Bitcoin responded immediately, bouncing off the $57,750 area to reclaim $61,000+, exactly the move our chart is now reflecting. This comes after a brutal June, where U.S. spot ETFs saw their worst-ever month with around $4.5 billion in outflows and price tapped its lowest levels in more than 21 months. The softer rate outlook is precisely the kind of macro shift that can fuel a sharp relief rally, which is why this 1H break deserves respect. That said, with Citi having cut its 12-month outlook and ETF flows still fragile, the higher-timeframe bias stays cautious until buyers prove they can hold this reclaim.
This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see Bitcoin heading next! Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳
Bitcoin’s Next Target: $666,000!?History Repeating Itself in Bitcoin? 💎🚀
If we look at Bitcoin’s 15-year historical behavior, a clear and logical cycle emerges:
🔹 4 years of a bullish wave
🔹 1 year of price correction (up to ~70%)
📊 Current Analysis:
The $37,000 – $57,000 range represents an exceptionally strategic entry zone based on previous cycles. If history repeats itself, the next target for this wave could reach $666,000—a potential 1,500% growth!
💡 Key Takeaway:
Charts don't lie, but risk management and maintaining a medium-to-long-term mindset remain essential in this market.
👇 Drop a comment below:
Do you think Bitcoin can reach the $600K+ target, or will the cycle be different this time?
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 24, 2026Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the Bitcoin trading session of the previous week, the cryptocurrency sustained its upward trajectory, reaching a Key Resistance level of $66,700 before rappelling to the Mean Support level of $63,900.
This movement establishes a potential decline toward the Mean Support levels of $62,300 and $60,500, with the possibility of retesting the completed Inner Coin Dip marked at $58,500.
Conversely, on the upside, it is anticipated that Bitcoin will rebound toward the Key Resistance level of $66,700 and may ultimately complete the Inner Coin Rally target of $69,500.
BTC Update – Setup Played OutI hope you were able to take some profits from the previous setup ✅. The move developed as expected and BTC is now approaching the key resistance area again.
🟢 Bullish scenario: A confirmed breakout above 66,400–67,200 could open the way toward 67,600.
🔴 Bearish scenario: A rejection from this zone could send BTC back toward the 64,000–64,800 support area.
Wait for confirmation — no confirmation, no trade. 👀
Not financial advice.
$BTCUSDT Descending Channel BreakoutBTCUSDT is trading on the 1D timeframe within a descending channel, where price has been respecting both the upper and lower trendlines visible on the chart.
The current price is trading around 64.2K, attempting to recover from the lower boundary of the channel. This area is important because it may determine whether the recent rebound develops into a stronger move.
Key levels to watch:
Support: Around 57.8K, near the recent swing low and lower channel boundary.
Resistance: The upper descending trendline around 65K–66K, followed by the projected resistance near 70.3K.
A daily close above the upper channel trendline could serve as a breakout confirmation. If confirmed, the chart projects a potential move toward approximately 70.3K, representing an advance of roughly 9–10% from the current price zone.
If price fails to break above the descending channel and moves back below the recent higher lows, the bullish setup could weaken, with the lower channel support remaining the key area to monitor.
This analysis is based solely on the price structure shown on the chart and is intended for educational purposes. Always watch for confirmation before considering any trading decision.
BTCUSDT: Ascending Channel Confronts Supply ZoneHi!
Pattern: Price is moving inside an ascending channel and has completed a three-drives pattern.
Zone: The market is hitting a major Supply & Demand (S&D) zone at $65,600, showing signs of rejection.
Bias: Bearish. The focus is on short positions aiming for the lower channel support near $62,500, unless a clean breakout above resistance invalidates the move.
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Bitcoin BTC price analysis for July 2026We didn't spend all this time surviving one of the toughest crypto corrections... just to give up at the very end.
It feels like the climax of this downtrend is getting very close.
In our view, July will decide everything.
And if our scenario plays out... August could become very interesting. ☀️
📊 During June, OKX:BTCUSDT printed three local lows.
What caught our attention is that every new low looked weaker than the previous one.
That often suggests sellers are gradually running out of momentum.
Still, one final stop hunt below support wouldn't surprise us.
📅 Our roadmap for July:
➡️ First, a move toward $65,600.
➡️ Then one more final flush, where we'll be watching these key levels very closely:
📍 $60,600
📍 $58,200
📍 And possibly $57,300–56,300.
Those are the areas where we'll be looking for buying opportunities if the market gives them.
Ironically, these are the exact levels we've been talking about for months...
Back when CRYPTOCAP:BTC was still trading above $80K.
👀 We're also closely watching BTC Dominance and USDT Dominance.
Both charts look increasingly close to giving crypto investors what they've been waiting for.
A little relief... A little hope... And maybe...
"four tiny stacks of money." 😄
______________
◆ Follow us ❤️ for daily crypto insights & updates!
🚀 Don’t miss out on important market moves
🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud
Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Zone: Is $60K the Launchpad for $90K?Bitcoin is once again trading inside a historically important demand zone between $60,000 and $64,000. From a technical perspective, the broader structure remains bearish – BTC continues to form lower highs and is still trading below both the 200-day moving average and the major descending trendline.
However, the technical weakness is developing alongside several long-term fundamental catalysts that could create the conditions for a larger recovery.
Corporate demand has not disappeared
Michael Saylor’s Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with more than 843,000 BTC on its balance sheet. The company continued accumulating during the market decline, including purchases around the mid-$60,000 area, although it has also recently sold a relatively small portion of its holdings as part of a new capital-management program.
This distinction matters.
Strategy is no longer operating under a simple “buy and never sell” model. It is increasingly managing Bitcoin as part of a broader treasury structure involving common shares, preferred securities, dividends and cash reserves. The recent sales may create short-term pressure, but the company still controls one of the largest concentrated Bitcoin positions in the world.
Its average acquisition price is estimated at approximately $75,000 per BTC, meaning the current market price is also below Strategy’s overall cost basis.
For long-term bulls, this creates an interesting situation: Bitcoin is trading below the average price paid by its most aggressive corporate buyer.
The Trump family remains deeply exposed to Bitcoin
Bitcoin also continues to receive political and corporate support from businesses connected to the Trump family.
American Bitcoin, backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., operates a combined Bitcoin-mining and treasury strategy. The company reportedly holds more than 8,000 BTC, while continuing to accumulate coins through mining despite the broader downturn.
This is not the same as Eric Trump personally purchasing Bitcoin on the open market. However, the family’s exposure through American Bitcoin means that its financial interests remain closely connected to the long-term performance of the asset.
President Donald Trump has also continued to present himself as supportive of the cryptocurrency industry. His recent pro-crypto comments helped Bitcoin recover after temporarily falling toward $60,000, demonstrating that political messaging can still influence short-term market sentiment.
Weak price, strong strategic interest
Bitcoin has declined sharply from its previous peak, but the fundamental story has not disappeared.
Corporate treasury companies remain exposed to the asset. Mining firms continue accumulating production. Political figures are increasingly connected to cryptocurrency businesses. Meanwhile, the market is now trading near levels that previously attracted significant institutional demand.
This does not guarantee that $60,000 will hold.
It does suggest that the current area is more than just another horizontal support level. It is becoming a test of whether long-term strategic buyers are prepared to absorb the supply created by leveraged traders, weaker treasury companies and short-term investors.
Technical structure
The first major condition for a bullish reversal is a sustained hold above the $60,000–$63,000 demand zone.
Bitcoin has already tested this area several times. Repeated tests can weaken support, but the market has so far avoided a decisive daily breakdown below $60,000.
The first upside objective is located around $66,000–$67,000, where recent local highs may create selling pressure.
Above that level, Bitcoin would approach the most important resistance cluster on the chart:
The descending trendline from the previous highs
The 200-day moving average
The horizontal resistance area around $70,000–$74,000
A move into this region would not automatically confirm a new bull market. It would represent the real decision point.
Bullish scenario
The bullish scenario would develop in several stages:
Bitcoin holds the $60,000–$63,000 support zone.
Price breaks above $66,000–$67,000.
BTC reaches the descending trendline near $70,000–$74,000.
The market closes decisively above the trendline and 200-day moving average.
A successful retest turns former resistance into support.
If this structure develops, the next upside targets would be:
Target 1: $77,000
The first major resistance after the breakout.
Target 2: $82,000
A previous reaction area and psychologically important level.
Target 3: $88,000–$90,000
The larger recovery target shown on the chart.
A breakout above $74,000 could also force short sellers to close positions, potentially accelerating the move through a short squeeze.
Bearish scenario
The bearish risk remains significant.
Bitcoin is still below a falling 200-day moving average and has not broken the sequence of lower highs. Until that changes, every rally can technically be treated as a countertrend move.
A decisive daily or weekly close below $60,000 would weaken the setup and expose:
$57,000–$58,000
$54,000–$55,000
Potentially the psychological $50,000 level
The greatest warning signal would be a breakdown below $60,000 followed by a failed attempt to reclaim it. In that case, former support could turn into resistance and create another wave of selling.
The bigger picture
Bitcoin is currently caught between two opposing forces.
On one side, the chart remains bearish, corporate treasury models are under pressure and some large holders have begun managing or reducing parts of their positions.
On the other side, Strategy still holds more than 843,000 BTC, Trump-linked American Bitcoin continues building its treasury through mining, and political support for the cryptocurrency sector remains stronger than during previous cycles.
The market does not need immediately bullish news to recover. It needs selling pressure to weaken while long-term demand continues absorbing supply.
That process may already be taking place around $60,000.
Key levels
Major support: $60,000–$63,000
Local confirmation: $66,000–$67,000
Breakout zone: $70,000–$74,000
Bullish targets: $77,000 / $82,000 / $88,000
Bearish invalidation: Confirmed breakdown and failed reclaim of $60,000
Bitcoin has not confirmed a reversal yet.
But with price compressed near major support, corporate and politically connected entities still holding substantial exposure, and the descending trendline moving closer to the market, the next breakout could determine the direction of BTC for the rest of the summer.
The opportunity is not the prediction. The opportunity is the asymmetric setup between clearly defined support and a potential structural breakout.
BTC/USD 30-Minute Chart Analysis UpdateMarket Structure
The chart shows Bitcoin experiencing a strong bullish impulse, followed by a corrective pullback.
After reaching a recent swing high, price retraced into a previously identified Fair Value Gap (FVG) and demand area.
This suggests the market is currently testing an important reaction zone where buyers and sellers may compete.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The highlighted blue zone around 63,000 USD represents a Fair Value Gap (FVG).
In price action theory, an FVG is an imbalance created by aggressive buying or selling.
Traders often observe whether price revisits these areas before continuing in the original trend.
Support Zone
The lower blue zone near 61,200 USD marks a significant support area.
If selling pressure increases, this level may attract buying interest based on previous market reactions.
However, a support level is never guaranteed to hold and requires confirmation.
Resistance Zone
The upper blue zone around 64,500 USD represents a key resistance level.
This is an area where sellers previously entered the market, making it an important level to monitor.
If bullish momentum strengthens, price may attempt to retest this resistance.
Potential Bullish Scenario
The blue arrow illustrates one possible educational scenario:
Price finds support inside the FVG.
Buyers step in and create a higher low.
Momentum increases toward the nearby resistance zone.
This is only one possible outcome and should not be interpreted as a prediction.
Alternative Scenario
If buyers fail to defend the FVG, price could continue lower toward the major support zone.
Many traders wait for confirmation, such as:
Bullish reversal candlestick patterns.
Strong buying volume.
A break above short-term resistance.
Higher highs and higher lows before considering a bullish continuation.
Risk Management Concept
The risk/reward box highlights the importance of planning every trade before entry.
Educationally, traders often define:
A clear invalidation level (stop-loss).
A logical profit target.
A favorable risk-to-reward ratio before entering the market.
Educational Summary
Short-term Bias: Price is in a corrective pullback after an upward move.
Current Focus: Price is testing a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which may act as a potential demand area.
Bullish Possibility: A confirmed reaction from the FVG could lead to a retest of the resistance around 64,500 USD.
Bearish Possibility: Failure to hold the FVG may result in a decline toward the major support near 61,200 USD.
BTC | The Trap Plays Out — Price Taps the Key Level as Planned!
By analyzing the #Bitcoin chart on the 2H timeframe, we can see that price is once again following the exact scenario we mapped out just two days ago. As we noted then, BTC remained firmly bearish on the daily and 2H — printing a series of bearish BOS — and the expectation was for a corrective push up into the Key Level to trap traders before the next leg down. That push has now played out, with price rallying straight into the zone we highlighted.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around the $61,314 area, pressing right up against the Key Level ( $61,518 – $61,990 ) that caps the recent structure. This region is the Protected High of the move, and as long as price stays capped beneath it, the broader bias remains firmly bearish. In my view, this rally looks far more like a liquidity grab than the start of a genuine reversal.
⏱️ 15m Timeframe
Zooming into the 15m timeframe, the picture gets more precise. After tapping the Key Level, price built a 15m Protected Low at $59,435 , sitting just above the nearby liquidity resting at $59,113 (the Protected Low) and $58,778 . This lower-timeframe level is now the trigger to watch.
From a structural perspective, the roadmap is clear. If price breaks the 15m Protected Low ( $59,435 ) before printing a fresh bullish BOS, that confirms the fake-out is complete and opens the door to a sharp, aggressive move lower — one that would finally deliver the 2H downside target. The medium-term sell-side liquidity sits stacked below, with the major target resting at $52,374 .
On the other hand, the bearish thesis would be put on hold if price instead reclaims and closes decisively above the Key Level / Protected High ( $61,990 ). That would break the bearish sequence and force a reassessment. Until that happens, every bounce into supply remains a selling opportunity in my view.
📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The technical picture is fully backed by the macro flows. Bitcoin just closed out its worst-ever month for U.S. spot ETFs, with roughly $4 billion in net outflows in June — the largest monthly redemption since launch — as capital rotated out of crypto amid macro uncertainty and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Price opened July by tapping around $57,950, its lowest level in more than 21 months, before this relief bounce kicked in. Adding to the caution, Citi recently cut its 12-month BTC target to $82,000 from $112,000, with a bear case near $53,000 — a level that lines up closely with our own downside target. That said, there is a counter-current worth respecting: on-chain data shows whales quietly accumulated over 270,000 BTC in the past two weeks, and analysts widely flag the $58,000 zone as the line that must hold to avoid a deeper capitulation. This keeps the market on a knife's edge and makes our Key Level the pivotal battleground for the next directional move.
This analysis will be updated as the market evolves.
If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see Bitcoin heading next!
Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳
BTCUSD 1H Chart Analysis UpdateMarket Structure
The chart shows Bitcoin trading inside a descending triangle pattern. The upper trendline is sloping downward, indicating that sellers have been defending lower highs, while the lower ascending trendline has been acting as support.
Price is currently testing a demand/support zone around 58,900, where buyers have reacted previously. This area is important because it may determine the next short-term move.
Entry Zone
The highlighted 58,900 area represents a potential buying zone.
The idea is that if buyers successfully defend this support and price forms a bullish confirmation candle, the market could begin a recovery toward the overhead resistance levels.
Waiting for confirmation helps reduce the risk of entering before support is validated.
Stop Loss
The proposed stop loss is placed near 58,000, below the recent swing low and beneath the demand zone.
If price closes below this level, it would suggest that buyers have lost control and the bullish setup is no longer valid.
Target Areas
The first objective is the nearby resistance around 60,700, where previous selling pressure appeared.
If bullish momentum remains strong, price may continue toward the major supply zone near 61,500, which represents the primary target on this chart.
Since supply zones often attract sellers, traders may monitor price action carefully if price reaches this area.
Technical Outlook
Price is testing a key support zone.
The descending trendline remains the main resistance.
A confirmed bullish reaction from support could trigger a move toward higher resistance.
Failure to hold above support may invalidate the bullish scenario.
Key Levels
Potential Entry: 58,900 (after bullish confirmation)
Stop Loss: 58,000
Target 1: 60,700
Target 2: 61,500 (Supply Zone)






















