For risk markets, historic times with US10Y breaking through 1.00, the 50bp cut is really sends ⚠️ signals that things are not as healthy as they made out as ECB insist they have no room to follow the Fed. Buckle up and remain defensive guys, I am adding USDJPY shorts on the day with targets 106.9x and 106.5x below. Stops needed to be above 107.9x. For those...
Risk markets are starting to form a temporary floor via BOJ stepping in and suture the wound. Volatility is set to remain high for the coming days, Asian stocks finding a bid from the usual dip buyers while USDJPY has started to bounce from last week’s move. Looking to sell any rallies into 109.2x as we have not seen the end of the storm in currencies yet. ...
Today the Bank of Japan purchased a record daily amount of exchange-traded funds after governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledged to provide ample liquidity through its asset purchases, 101,4 billion yen is around $0,94 billion, As a result, Nikkei Index rose almost 3%. The problem now is that this week we are going to know 4 quarter GDP from Japan which is expected to fall...
On the risk side, US10Y bouncing from the lows while Global Equities attempt to form a s/t floor. Central Bank co-ordinated policy is only a matter of time, markets have forced FED, ECB, BOC, BOJ, BOE and everything in-between to kiss the hand and keep rate cuts on the table. JPY is itching to resume dancing the same rhythm but given USD demand via month end...
Highlights of the week going to USDJPY exploding to the topside and catching many with their pants down (myself included). In times of extreme panic even the USD can outperform JPY as a safe haven currency. Japanese economy is coughing badly in all data fronts and considering the geographical location relative to the virus it makes it hard to find reasons to park...
A round of GBP chart updates after the latest cabinet reshuffle. A nice sweep of the highs and we are set to go with the fiscal taps set to rain down and attempt to offset the impact via brexit. On the other side we have risk taking the spotlight again with coronavirus flows not abating. JPY is set to outperform over the coming sessions with a soft selloff...
Risk markets recovering, well done all those who voted to buy the dip overnight in the Asian bounce. PBOC suturing the wound (for now). On the macro side, strong data from the US manufacturing side should be taken with a pinch of salt as was helped massively via phase 1 and too soon to measure any viral impact. Flow wise, I noticed a lot of fast money clients...
On the risk front, the WHO signalling for a national emergency and markets are not taking it well. The risk-off moves should continue with USDJPY a good benchmark for reference. I am holding shorts and was adding on Friday as nothing suggest any reason to cover although we had month end flows in play which made things tricky as participants were timid. To the...
USDJPY with important updates from the overnight Asian session. A technical break of the key 109.7x that we have been tracking has opened up the downside. Holding shorts and selling rallies remains my favoured play, all levels remain the same 109.7x broken support, 109.2x initial targets, 107.6x and 106.6x extensions. While to the topside reassessment needed above...
Since the YC inversion in August last year (2019), there has been a "crack" in correlation between the US02Y and USDJPY. I expected the YEN to strengthen as the Japanese short the dollar against the YEN to hedge against the rising US Govt bond prices (due to the rate cuts) considering Japan holds a significant amount of US Govt debt. My initial thoughts on this is...
On the risk front, JPY demand running out of steam from the initial knee-jerk via Iran tensions and asking for a squeeze. I am tracking 108.6x on the day to add to my shorts. Targets below are located at 107.3x support while stops can be kept comfortably above 108.9x resistance. JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and...
On the USD side, we have dollar devaluation in play via Fed flooding the supply side and marking the monthly highs in Dollar: On the JPY side, I am looking for an eventful year on the risk front. Japan will benefit in search of safety with late cycle fears only temporarily abating: On the technical side, for those in a background with waves and...
In this thesis the USD devaluation is playing the main role for 1H20, risk flows will join the party in 2H20 and as you know by now flows with both fundamentals and technicals behind it can be considered to be on solid foundations. Let us compare the USDJPY with a recently published chart. Then the US capital outflows were expected to do the heavy lifting: ...
Trump was impeached yesterday and lost! But the trial timing remains in doubt, keeping parties on their toes! Meanwhile, BoJ kept interest rates unchanged overnight and now we have to wait and see if BoE adds to the downside risks on #no-deal fears, or encourage bulls with a rather hawkish stance? I talk about all that in today’s market insights while analysing...
After getting the breakout we were tracking for in USDJPY we are now back and revisiting our infamous "Loading Zone" area at 109.3x right in time for BOJ to maintain the status quo. Outside of a knee jerk via risk I expect USDJPY to hold 108 - 109 range until we clear BOJ next week. Odds of Japanese rates being taken further into the red is declining, meaning...
Hello Traders, SNB unchanged, and the head of the central bank said that profits from this state of affairs exceed the costs associated with it and for now we will remain in this situation. A raise towards "old consolidation" 111.00 / 20 as possible short trigger Stop above 111.60 Target 108.50 / 00 Good luck
Here we are trading USDJPY at the highs in the range with macro risk-off themes still remaining in play and unchanged despite how the local news is selling the extended bull market. On the monetary side, BOJ clearly have their hands tied with the ECB/FED coordination. To put simply, any BoJ easing will follow ECB/FED which will be positive JPY via risk factors....
Yesterdays setup was very specific and for good reason. Our specific strategy for this short setup yesterday was designed to be able to resist any "fake outs" or simple upside that came from the pair at the key levels shown in those charts at that time. Yesterday's amount of short sellers who're either close to being margin called or already hav given us the...