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Using psychology, large price moves, and volume to spot bottomsI saw a recent video where the host (Marc) was explaining that today winners were those that were able to understand what goes on in other people's brains, how they feel and what their goals are, find their breaking points, and see them coming. In the US stock market the underlying economics got ignored and the price keeps going up. It goes, or went up, because of all the new investors joining and probably also because of the massive ETF market where they use tricks to minimize taxes, and money managers push to get as much AUM as possible which means they keep buying everything. When do bottoms often form? When the herd gets broken. With Bitcoin they kept calling bottoms in 2018, the 11k bottom, 9k, 6k. Then they held the bag for months at 6k and kept hoping, time slowly taking its toll on their morale. When Bitcoin went to 3k they were devastated, in panic, and lost hope. And then it went up. They started building their hopes up "maybe I can get my money back", then were thrilled and started laughing at bears, and finally got euphoric and complacent "the bull market is back 100% confirmed, how are people still bearish? Bitcoin bull market is back it is a proven fact". And then... It started a drawn up bear trend, the bear market was not over. When the price dropped below 7000 that was really the final hit. They went through so much and thought it was over. They just surrendered. Bitcoin saw a drop of more than 20% in 1 hour 3 times. In a single day the price dropped more than 40%, and on huge volume. The market found their breaking point. If the average Bitcoin investor had held on, then it would mean other bagholders would also have held on, and so there would not have been a "SELL EVERYTHING NOW" event, and the price would have continued its slow death grind down forever. They either sell at the bottom or the price slowly goes to zero. It is impossible for the average investor to win, resistance is futile. Technically (on the chart) there are 2 things we can look at to find bottoms: violent selling and high volume. For the volume it is a built-in indicator, and for the violent selling I made one in november 2018 when Bitcoin was close to its fake bottom: So first of all I am happy that with the default setting it worked! 3000 in 2018 was not detected as bottom but march 2020 was! Some examples on the daily chart. As always, it is better to not filter enough and then go manually check, than to filter too much and miss the move when it happens. If you bought that 2015 bottom and actually held: I'll speculate that this (only) works in the large presence of dumb money. It may work otherwise but better safe than sorry. After the violent 1987 crash: Of course this only works for those that have cash available, not underwater greedy fomo permabulls. As a currency speculator that does little long term holds, little investing, there will always be available side cash for this. Oh and you don't always get a nice obvious volume spike & clear bottom so this cannot be relied on alone (obviously...): Little professionals trade it therefore Bitcoin is in the presence of dumb money so it works very well 👍 It might be the last time though, it already went mainstream and nothing lasts forever (except gold it literally lasts forever). Picking bottoms looks good, it especially looks very attractive to novices, but it's not that great I think. It's not THAT easy if you're not emotional (and it's totally impossible if you are, modulo luck) but it might be easier than the rest, I don't know actually, is it? Still it's pretty nice, but not the only way to make money, I like looking for small chunks myself, works really well too: Finally, this is a good way to spot bottoms, not all bottoms form this way, and not everything this will filter will be a bottom, the thinking part is still necessary, but very often will bottoms form when there is heavy selling (price drop + volume) in a deep bear market.
by MrRenev
26
Could Current move play out as what happened in the past ? XRP is still dumping so hard , But could it pump much harder after the dump as it did in late 2017, Well its a possibility and I would love to risk buying here with small amount and HODL for few more months. Buying now is so dangerous "don't try to catch a falling knife", but longing with amount that you really afford to lose isn't a bad thing now. XRP bounced more than 2000% after it dumped in 2017. I am curious what happen in the coming days.
Long
by madyanmalfi
1
Five types of major support and resistance levelsWant to buy the bottom and sell the top? Want to predict major turning points in a security's price? Want to avoid buying too early or selling too late? Then you need to understand support and resistance levels! I know a lot of people who mostly trade breakouts. That can be a very successful strategy, and I've used it myself to good effect. But if you buy a breakout after it happens, you pay a "breakout premium"-- especially if you're buying option calls or puts. You'll get a much better price on options if you buy them *before* a breakout or *before* a major change in momentum. How do you do that? Know your support and resistance levels! Once you know how to identify the different types of support and resistance, you can look to see where several different types of support or resistance coincide . Those will be key price points at which different types of investors who rely on different types of indicators will all buy or sell at the same time.
NYSE:HPEEducation
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3
Naked Analysis - Chart Patterns & Price Action ---> THIS IS A NAKED CHART ANALYSIS <--- ONLY CHART PATTERNS AND PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS - NO INDICATORS Here as you can see after the breakout of the rounded bottom - continuation pattern, the market went to retest the resistance zone, which now is support. At the support area, bullish momentum pushes the market up in smaller timeframes and the market is now going to continue the upward trend. * If you don't know about the Rounded Bottom pattern, you can go to my profile and find the post about this pattern, to completely understand this analysis. HAVE WEEK & HAPPY PROFITS ! ! !
Long
by MONEYMAKER00
DREPBTC is testing monthly support 🦐DREPBTC is testing monthly support and it's creating a rounded bottom. IF the price will have a breakout upward, According to Plancton's strategy (check our Academy), we can set a nice order ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
DLong
by InkyGrip
6
$KEY - Double Rounded Bottom Pattern.#KEY Nice double rounded bottom pattern in the daily chart and a symmetrical triangle breakout in the weekly chart. The inner rounded bottom pattern made a higher high and on the verge of a breakout from the neckline(edge). If it could make higher highs and higher lows it is very like that it will reach the neckline of the broader rounded bottom pattern and breakout may occur. The demand and supply zones are marked on the weekly chart.
NYSE:KEYLong
by Southwind-CT