As most of you are aware of, i have a bearish bias on this pair. This bias comes from a bearish Gartley pattern on the daily timeframe.
This morning we can see how AUD/USD surged up, but we are currently seeing a nice trading opportunity looking to go short from these levels.
Lets see how this one plays out.
Good luck to all trading AUD/USD!!
Here tracking 1.295x as the level to recycle and load more shorts. Well done those following from the original short-term swing which was triggered on the cabinet reshuffle (see diagram below). As widely expected GBP suffering as markets began to look towards the EU negotiations kickstarting in March. Both sides are very wide apart and no-deal Brexit looks set for...
A weak session for EURGBP, soft hands continued to bring better sellers in from leveraged accounts and yet the important 0.8300x support still held. I am once again in BTFD mode as pound remains more vulnerable in the entire process as a result of financial services replacement.
Risk markets will put more pressure on GBP in general over the coming sessions. Here...
With Javid out Johnson had the perfect cherry pick with Rishi Sunak and now the fiscal taps can be turned on full. This medium-term swing is starting to look very interesting which is unlocking a leg towards 1.20xx and 1.15xx below:
Rishi is a typical yes man, he will do...
A timely update to the FX strategy for GBP with particular focus on Cable.
On the UK side, we have loud messages from Europe around the difficulty for both sides to reach an agreement by year-end. Although typical in a game of high-stakes chess, this is a heavy weight on Sterling.
On the US side, a solid round of data prints last week from wages to...
The power to breakdown has been developed knowingly and systematically, unlike chop/consolidation which frequently occurs. The effect of the breakdown is heightened by BOE turning very dovish and calling up for Sterling devaluation, which in their eyes must be required for offsetting the loss in UK market access.
Compare the following two diagrams:
...
BOE's Gov Carney hinted to stimulus yesterday, indicating that the pound could come under severe pressure if incoming data show no improvement.
Coincidently, the same day there were suggestions that the EU-UK talks could be dragged past the tight deadline BoJo has set.
The passenger plane crash in Tehran didn’t reflect into the markets as uncertainty about the...
A very simple trigger for those wanting to cover some shorts from the initial elections entry; the key 1.315x support is holding and pressure has been completely absorbed.
We are trading the bottom of the clearly defined range from the elections; 1.315x <=> 1.355x and markets rather than going overboard on risk will want to keep their cards closer to their...
As widely anticipated over the weekend Conservative lead widening and reflecting in Cable strength. The 1.292x - 1.282x remains of interest to me, here expecting 1.30 to hold ahead of elections as momentum in Pound looks apathetic at best.
The "People vs Establishment" narrative continues to pick up steam:
...
In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #fxminors #EURJPY and #GBPCHF as they both seem to be moving within an identical pattern.
Despite the added uncertainty amid the latest delay drama of phase-1 of a potential trade deal between US and China, safe-havens #yen and #franc seemed unaffected by at least this type of flows.
That suggests that...
Fed’s monetary policy vector changes, the pressure between the US and Iran has reached a critical level, the overall high level of investor concern led to the fact that gold almost reached 1140 yesterday. As a result, an increasing number of traders and analysts are turning into purchases. In particular, Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex believes that a...
A "dovish" surprise from the Fed yesterday ...but does it really matter?
Well the removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes.History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming...
Here we have an update to the Cable chart.
The UK going back to the 1600’s as odds of another vote on PM May’s deal in the House of Commons this week are very low. For a house of “Commons” they are certainly lacking “common sense”.
... The rules are that two votes on the same motion are not permitted during the same parliamentary year. This means PM May will...
We have a very similar setup to that in GBPNZD (see attached: "Expanding Diagonal in GBPNZD" for more information on the technical side as we will not be covering that here).
As expected the House of Commons rejecting the idea of a no-deal Brexit yesterday (although by default unless there are any changes we are heading for this outcome so it still remains in...
We have some time ahead of "House of Commons: Chapter 2" later today so it is a perfect opportunity to start dissecting the moves in cable that have been traded live in Tradingview.
Our first position on the sell-side came in at 1.329 (see attached idea "Selling cable with incoming dollar strength") as we were expecting the highs to be set as markets finished...
Round 2 is in play for the House of Commons tonight. The house are voting on whether it supports leaving the EU without a deal. Markets are overwhelmingly expecting this to be rejected, leaving the possibility of a Brexit extension (round 3) tomorrow the most likely scenario.
Expecting a soft rally on the thought of no-deal being removed. A nice pipe-dream and...
In his speech today BoE Governor Mark Carney said that global growth this year is expected to be at around 3.25%. Since the Brexit referendum, the pound has fallen 25%, causing incomes to fall, and slowdowns all over the economy. Historical stability, solid financial institutions and a well-built social/political system allow the country to maintain afloat. Carney...
I am expecting the Brexit No Deal issue will sooner or later pressure the sterling and also the issue about renewing Carney "reign" at the BOE. Technically, I believe GBPUSD is in a downtrend. I will short GBPUSD if I see a Bearish Engulfing Candle or Dark Cloud cover in one of these levels I've marked with red arrows. Target(s) are based on the average daily...
