Economists look for further sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 level in the second quarter of the year. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬: “We think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to...
🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan...
📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the...
Buyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the...
📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year. If buyers hold (and it looks...
Swings and position building We have witnessed a tremendous amount of profit taking after clearing the 7.23 targets in USDTRY and are arriving back into major support territory. The pick-up in local activity was notable as banks were forced to defend the TRY. Many clients I speak to are happy to continue buying USDTRY , the picture looks gloomy for Turkey and...
Turkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus...