ridethepig
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ridethepig | Thoughts on Turkish Lira

FOREXCOM:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
πŸ“Œ The capitulation

After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic'


This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the technical ebb and flow tactics.

Of course we continued to pile on longs all the way up, our confidence in the swing was building which influenced the way we were able to construct the trade and future of the operation. Here I must highlight that the move does not last for ever; a full blown +50% move in a currency crops up occasionally, in fact even more you can see the need to capitalise on these moves.

So, as we approached the start of the 'flash crash' or up in this case, the following additions were made:


Then suddenly it happens, the almost powder runs dry in Turkish local banks and we get the momentum higher. It shows how hollow and uninteresting currencies can be, very straightforward when used in the safe little world of macroeconomics. A quick update on the initial leg of the Q3 flows we were tracking live:


The final motive to clear was nat gas being discovered, the threat of continuing higher is very high and therefore logical to trade. Funding rates are casually moving higher but with no sense of urgency which of course is linked to the entire defence system for sellers at 7.80. Now it's important to load off of the previous resistance in the first leg of Q3 at 7.20, for a move into the final macro targets above at 7.80xx right on time for the elections.

Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming πŸ‘ or πŸ‘Ž
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