ridethepig
Long

Local Banks Powder Dry ... Lira Flash Crash Imminent!!!

FOREXCOM:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
USDTRY continues grinding higher as anticipated with sanctions next. Any de-escalation of the conflict is very unlikely currently sitting at 12% odds after announcements from Syria joining forces with the Kurds. Those wondering why the reaction has been muted so far on the FX board is because local Turkish banks continue defending Lira by selling $ in large sizes (I saw almost $5bn outflows from TRY last week) simply meaning once powder dries the Lira is only going one way and the important 6.00 level we have been will get cracked any minute.

On the technicals side, we are in the same count as before with a +30% target from current levels within reach over the next few weeks:


Btw.. .This count we have been successfully tracking since last year:


Mark my words...They will run out of ammunition very soon...When powder turns dry $TRY will escape to the highs and test 7.80

Thanks and Good luck!
Comment:
Comment: 6.00x in play once more...

Comments

Nice job with this call out . Where would you put the stop loss?
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ridethepig tomiwolf
Thanks @tomiwolf, for the natural macro stop you need to be able to hold below the Nov18 lows ... aggressive placement below 5.45xx.
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