📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year.
📍 The panic leg here is because we are reaching the endgame in the economic cycle. There is a risk of Turkish banks defaulting on this leg so watch-out for any exposure to specific sectors. If the operation demonstrated is a successful attack, then we have the final ✅ for those trading the macro move called last year:
We are breaking up a bullish accumulation pattern on ERD called a bullish rectangle. We have resistances in the range of 70 satoshis
As long as the asset is priced above alligators' averages we will consider that the asset is in an upward trend.
Please push like button, follow us on Tradingview and on Telegram.
Best regards, Sandro and Gustavo.
Swings and position building
We have witnessed a tremendous amount of profit taking after clearing the 7.23 targets in USDTRY and are arriving back into major support territory. The pick-up in local activity was notable as banks were forced to defend the TRY. Many clients I speak to are happy to continue buying USDTRY , the picture looks gloomy for Turkey and...
All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend.
Recognise that this demand for USD is squeezing USDTRY into the secondary macro swing targets at 6.60xx. This is completely inline with the forecasts and all those in leveraged positions are inclined to take profits. We are not out of the woods (yet) and large hands will continue to buy dips in USDTRY as long as we remain in risk-off flows.
On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into...
Turkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged.
In the very...
With the year almost up, a good time to update the USDTRY chart. Smart money has been tracking Turkish rates, the short end has been screaming weakness and markets not interest in any more BS with the dictator in charge. S400 remains a thorn in the shoe and blackmailing to close NATO bases is leaving a nasty aftertaste.
For those who have been tracking the...
If you get involved in provocative acts, saying ‘foreign currencies will strengthen, this will happen, that will happen’, you will pay a very heavy price - Erdogan
Fundamental Quant Score +60
Fundamental Quant Score -4
Investors seek reforms, fear populism
Lira initially weakened 2.5 percent
Shares rise 1 percent (Updates lira, adds London...
Here we are witnessing a very interesting move taking place for the Turkish financial system. After finishing a clear corrective ABC sequence since the August highs we are now in the early stages of an impulsive move to finish the more broader 5th wave in a very large sequence.
For those tracking the updates in USDTRY in the previous charts (see attached:...
There are similarities with Venezuela.
It's look like Trump and Israel doesn't wan't to loose power in middle east.
They are some good projects like:
*new silk road to istanbul
*drilling for oil and gas near Cyprus in the near future
Battle cards tell you truth.
Turkey+Russia+China+Iran have now more power and control in middle east.
Trump + Israel have more...
=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, we are in the early stages of a 5th wave which we mentioned in our previous ideas... it can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for the highs are wide open.
From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 7.85 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1)....
this is actually an update to my post of best trade I`ve ever had in Forex since we shorted that awesome retracement :-)
Check the actually trade and let me know what you think.
Cheers ang doo trades
Erdogan speaking publicly for the first time since the TRY rout started (years ago).
His comments are not being appreciated by the markets. Quite a closed mind it seems, and an aggressive posture against
the international community. This will only exacerbate capital flight from Turkey.
After a massive fall because of a hike in interest rates in Turkey, EURTRY bulls managed to stage a weak recovery within a corrective channel. I think the channel will be broken to the downside soon.
Ali Sharifazadeh, CFTe