Interesting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains.
Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South...
Lira tanking again, BIST (Turkish market) looks bearish as well. When panic sets into either one, this will tank hard and fast. Chart wise, it looks like it's going to break support.
In for some March 15 puts.
Can't believe I just did this but I picked up Jan $25 calls for $0.20 in case they pop this up like they did last January. It's an all or nothing play, keep it small.
In the long run, TURkey is cooked, the Lyra will tank like a TURd because inflation is at 20%, who wants to invest in that?
I think the Lira rally is over, TUR appears to have broken the trendline. Keep in mind that this is not currency hedged, so you're basically betting against the Lira currency.
I'm always looking for things to short since I can't get bullish on this market. I expect the US market to bounce later this week, but that won't help the Lira.
Everyone's aware of the crisis in Turkey, I'm just here to play it.
Sold -1 Sep21 19/22 Big lizard for $3.06 cr.
Risk: 1x cr received
Profit: 25-30% of cr received
Breakevens: $15.94 to the downside, no upside risk.
The USDTRY trade 2 days ago was probably one of the best trade I've ever traded and called out.
With Turkey has such a huge systematic risk, TUR also got sold off on Friday.
While, it's going to 2 weekly bullish harmonic patterns combination D point spot.
the most reasonable answer to the understanding of these 2 patterns is
"Not inclined to chase the short below...
... for a 1.05/contract credit. High rank/implied (100/78).
Probability of Profit: 73%
Max Profit: 1.05 ($105)/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/$194/contract
Break Even: 17.95
Notes: Taking advantage of the Turkish meltdown to sell some puts.