We warned yesterday - do not Trust the Operators.
They Dinked the Chasers again.
Time and again, Crude Oil dips into Highs prior to a
Oil touts were out in force all week with $100, $125,
$150 and $300 Oil Targets.
Never is this a Goo Sign.
Oil Touts are the "Tom Lees" of Equities.
The Divergences are quite large within the Overall Structure.
API was weak yesterday for all the $100 - $200 Price Targets
issued from Media Bullhorns.
Squeeze after squeeze has been the Modality for Operators.
A very large Bull Flag at present seems to be encouraging the
Chasers as Specs remain extremely...
The CL one hour time frame is in a short term
down trend line. The market is still making lower
lows and lower highs. It will be a good idea to wait
for the market to break and close above the short
term down trend line before looking for buying
ideas towards the monthly up Fibonacci price point
95.75 about +2,764 ticks away.
Entry: Counter trend line break...
EIA Thursday - last week's report was negative for CL.
No matter, with JPM calling for first $125 Crude
then $100 Crude revied later... Its clear the Operators
are having their way with Black Gold.
it is approaching an Overbought condition, but that is
becoming meaningless quickly as it can continue to
expand for some time.
The prior HIghs near this level tool...
The Chart is extreme Price Ratio behavior within
the WTIC to BDI Ratio.
Extreme is relative to TIME, as the ROC is quite robust.
And yet it remains at a mere fraction of its prior high @ 1.232.
Price is going to make a very large move in Crude Oil @ minimum
$10 and perhaps far more.
Recently we have seen...
Crude Oil will provide the Leading Indication for a Reversal into the
3/5 for the Indices.
The DX has been wandering in the Desert @ 96.
All eyes have been on the Breakup and out to 98, it has
yet to materialize and with Rates pulling back, we will see
quite clearly where the Operators have designs on...
This is the monthly chart of CL futures.
Will history repeat itself? Back in April of 2000 CL set off a monthly bearish spike alert and around that same timeperiod NQ & ES made there last ATH's until Sept 2016 & April 2013 respectively. The long term non-horizontal monthly trend lines (blue lines) also look eerily similar. The blue lines run along the monthly...
API and EIA Ahead the next 2 Days.
Both will be suspect, as they should be.
The CL Curve is interesting and deserves a review.
All part of the Crude Oil Trade at present.
How it shakes out will be extremely telling for...
Crude Oil is extremely interesting at present.
$84 is the Level we are watching closely, not the Highs @ 85.41
as they will be important later this week.
This is a No Man's Land Trade at this Time.
We anticipate a significant change of $10 on either side of $84.
To complicate matters is the Extension...
Small Specs aka Retailers are getting out over their Skis once again.
@ 90% Over their Skis.
The reversal will be an amazing event, it should occur prior to the
FOMC, but can grind higher for now.
We will be Sellers with tight stops overhead.
the Baltic Dry Index is collapsing, Oil historically follows.
Buy the Dip in Oil won't end well.
Crude Oil is at a pivotal juncture now with NG up 13%
Energy either breaks up and over the highs or we see
a sharp decline once overbought, we're not there yet
as these are very important levels.
It reinforces the Fed's need to act.
OVX is indicating some type of pullback shortly.
Volumes on Weekly...
Crude Oil has an expanded range from 78.36 to 80.48.
Sellers have been roundly pushed back as CL would simply
collect the energy and grind higher.
API Today and EIA T0morrow will provide direction, the
Gap remains overhead and should be filled.
Rates have had a mild impact on CL, as has the DX.
Oil has completed a 5-wave move on 25 Oct. Oscillators and geometry suggest a decline.
Price got rejected at the lower boundary of the channel. The red trend line is a second resistance, connecting the previous low and the gap.
We can count an ABC (in green), which makes up corrective wave (b), in blue. If correct, we can expect a wave C to...
Our Price Objectives complete the Gap FIll.
This has been a one-way Trade - Higher.
Sellers have been rejected on every Pullback only
to see Price move slowly, methodically... higher.
API / EIA / RIGS / OPEC has backstopped Crude Oil.
FAding the Trend has been a ticket to larger losses
as Sellers on the Tape...
81.12 to 83.32 are not open for the Fill and Overthrow.
There is plenty of Oil regardless of API / EIA Non0-sense.
Hookahs are having a party at Virtual Davos this Year.
Bless them, them as the Sultan is worth $2.1 Trillion, makes
Gates, Buffet, Besos, and Elon look like Pikers.
NQ will be in trade on NPK...