Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
Multi-Asset Market Analysis & Trade IdeasAnalysis Date : September 10, 2025
Trading Analyst : Institutional Intelligence Framework
Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System with Enhanced Volume Profile Analysis
Executive Summary
Current market analysis reveals exceptional institutional opportunities across equity indices with significant commodity sector divergence. The enhanced institutional intelligence framework identifies unprecedented buying dominance in major equity markets while revealing dangerous extensions in traditional safe-haven assets.
Portfolio Allocation Strategy : 75-85% equity allocation with minimal commodity/currency exposure based on institutional positioning intelligence.
Primary Opportunities (70-85% Total Allocation)
1. NASDAQ 100 (NQ) - 25-30% ALLOCATION
Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Institutional Backing
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 26.8:1 buying dominance (6.18M UP vs 230.69K DOWN)
Current Position : 23,963 (+3.4% above Q3 POC 23,186)
Support Structure : Exceptional multi-quarter institutional foundation
Risk Assessment : LOWEST RISK - strongest institutional conviction identified
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (65% probability) :
Entry : /MNQ at current levels or any pullback to 23,500-23,600
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 24,500 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 25,000 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 25,500+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 23,000 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 23,200-24,200 consolidation
Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness toward 23,400
Management : Hold core position, trade edges of range
Re-evaluation : Weekly basis for breakout confirmation
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 23,000 (institutional support failure)
Action : Exit all positions immediately
Re-entry : Require fresh institutional accumulation evidence
Risk Control : Maximum 2% loss on allocation
2. S&P 500 (ES) - 25-30% ALLOCATION
Classification : PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Support
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 5.21:1 buying dominance (11.3M UP vs 2.17M DOWN)
Current Position : 6,550 (+2.7% above Q3 POC 6,375)
Support Structure : Consistent institutional accumulation across quarters
Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - exceptional institutional backing
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (70% probability) :
Entry : /MES at current levels or pullback to 6,450-6,500
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 6,650 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 6,750 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 6,850+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 6,300 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (20% probability) :
Range : 6,400-6,600 consolidation
Strategy : Accumulate on weakness, trim on strength
Management : Maintain core position size
Monitoring : Weekly institutional level respect
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 6,300 (institutional support violation)
Action : Systematic position reduction
Stop Loss : 6,250 (complete exit level)
Re-entry : Wait for institutional re-engagement signals
3. DOW JONES (YM) - 20-25% ALLOCATION
Classification : HIGH CONVICTION - YTD POC Validation
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 11.5:1 buying dominance (455.32K UP vs 83.17K DOWN)
YTD POC Alignment : Perfect alignment with Q1 POC at 45,150
Current Position : 45,651 (+1.1% above institutional consensus)
Risk Assessment : VERY LOW RISK - optimal positioning
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (75% probability) :
Entry : /MYM at current levels (optimal positioning confirmed)
Position Size : Maximum 2.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 46,200 (close 40% position)
Target 2 : 46,800 (close 30% position)
Target 3 : 47,500+ (trail remaining 30%)
Stop Loss : 44,800 (below YTD/Q1 POC consensus)
Neutral Scenario (20% probability) :
Range : 45,000-46,000 consolidation around institutional consensus
Strategy : Hold core position, add on dips to 45,200
Management : Optimal risk/reward positioning maintained
Advantage : Minimal downside to institutional support
Bearish Scenario (5% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 45,000 (YTD POC violation)
Action : Reduce position by 50%
Ultimate Stop : 44,500 (complete exit)
Assessment : Highly unlikely given institutional validation
Secondary Opportunities (15-20% Total Allocation)
4. WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) - 15-20% ALLOCATION
Classification : SOLID OPPORTUNITY - Strong Institutional Foundation
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : 1.94:1 buying dominance (1.38M UP vs 710.76K DOWN)
Current Position : 63.27 (within Q3 institutional accumulation zone)
Support Structure : Massive Q2 institutional accumulation at 57.50
Risk Assessment : LOW RISK - multiple institutional support layers
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (60% probability) :
Entry : /MCL at current levels or pullback to 62.50-63.00
Position Size : Maximum 2% account risk per position
Target 1 : 67.00 (close 50% position)
Target 2 : 69.00 (close 25% position)
Target 3 : 71.00+ (trail remaining 25%)
Stop Loss : 61.50 (below Q3 institutional support)
Neutral Scenario (30% probability) :
Range : 62.00-65.00 consolidation within institutional zone
Strategy : Scale into positions on weakness
Management : Patient accumulation approach
Support : Strong institutional backing provides downside protection
Bearish Scenario (10% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 61.00 (institutional support failure)
Action : Exit positions systematically
Re-entry : 58.00 area (Q2 POC support)
Risk Management : Tight stops due to support proximity
Defensive Positions (8-12% Total Allocation)
5. NATURAL GAS (NG) - 8-12% ALLOCATION
Classification : MODERATE RISK - Declining Institutional Engagement
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Q3 Volume Analysis : Mixed activity with reduced institutional participation
Q1 Peak : 10.6:1 buying dominance (697K UP vs 65K DOWN) - historical high
Current Concern : 65% volume decline from Q1 peaks
Risk Assessment : MODERATE - institutional disengagement evident
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (45% probability) :
Entry : Current levels only with tight risk controls
Position Size : Maximum 1.5% account risk per position
Target 1 : 3.40 (close 60% position)
Target 2 : 3.60 (close remaining 40%)
Stop Loss : 2.90 (below Q3 POC support)
Neutral Scenario (35% probability) :
Range : 3.00-3.20 consolidation
Strategy : Avoid new positions, monitor for re-engagement
Management : Maintain defensive positioning
Watch : Volume quality for institutional return
Bearish Scenario (20% probability) :
Trigger : Break below 2.90 (Q3 support failure)
Action : Complete position liquidation
Assessment : Institutional abandonment acceleration
Avoidance : No re-entry until fresh accumulation evidence
Risk Management Positions (8-13% Total Allocation)
6. EURO FUTURES (6E) - 5-8% ALLOCATION
Classification : DEFENSIVE ONLY - Dangerous Extension
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
YTD POC Analysis : 1.0525 (aligned with Q1 POC)
Current Position : 1.1769 (+12.9% above institutional consensus)
Extension Risk : DANGEROUS - trading far beyond smart money positioning
Risk Assessment : HIGH RISK - profit-taking territory
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (25% probability) :
Entry : AVOID new long positions
Existing Positions : Systematic profit-taking recommended
Target : 1.1850 maximum (close all positions)
Risk : Overextension beyond institutional support
Neutral Scenario (35% probability) :
Range : 1.1650-1.1800 at dangerous extension levels
Strategy : Range trading only with tight stops
Position Size : Maximum 1% account risk
Management : Defensive positioning required
Bearish Scenario (40% probability) :
Trigger : Any breakdown below 1.1700
Target : Return to institutional consensus (1.0525)
Action : Short opportunities on strength
Strategy : Mean reversion to YTD POC likely
7. GOLD FUTURES (GC) - 3-5% ALLOCATION
Classification : EXTREME CAUTION - Maximum Extension
3-QTR View:
YTD View:
Institutional Intelligence :
Extension Analysis : 12.2% above all institutional positioning
Q2 Peak Activity : 11.5:1 buying dominance at 3,430 levels
Current Position : 2,676 (extremely overextended)
Risk Assessment : MAXIMUM RISK - correction vulnerability
Trade Recommendations :
Bullish Scenario (15% probability) :
Entry : AVOID all new long positions
Existing : Immediate profit-taking recommended
Risk : Extreme overextension unsustainable
Management : Defensive exit strategy only
Neutral Scenario (25% probability) :
Range : 2,650-2,700 at unsustainable levels
Strategy : No positioning recommended
Assessment : Range trading too risky given extension
Monitoring : Watch for breakdown signals
Bearish Scenario (60% probability) :
Target : 3,400-3,500 (return to institutional zones)
Correction Magnitude : 12-15% decline likely
Strategy : Short opportunities on any strength
Entry : /MGC shorts on rallies above 2,690
Stop : 2,720 (tight risk control)
Target : 3,450 (institutional accumulation zone)
Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Framework
Maximum Risk Per Trade : 2% of account value
Maximum Sector Exposure : 6% (energy, metals, currencies)
Portfolio Heat : Maximum 15% total risk across all positions
Cash Reserve : 5-12% for opportunities and margin requirements
Stop Loss Hierarchy
Tactical Stops : 2-3 Renko blocks on execution charts
Strategic Stops : Below/above institutional POC levels
Emergency Stops : Below major quarterly support levels
Time Stops : Exit if no progress within 15 trading days
Profit Taking Protocol
Systematic Approach :
Target 1 : Close 40-50% of position at 2:1 risk/reward
Target 2 : Close 25-30% of position at 3:1 risk/reward
Target 3 : Trail remaining 20-25% with institutional level stops
Correlation Management
Equity Exposure : Maximum 75-85% combined (NQ+ES+YM)
Commodity Exposure : Maximum 25-30% combined (CL+NG)
Currency Exposure : Maximum 10% (6E only)
Safe Haven Exposure : Maximum 5% (GC defensive only)
Market Scenario Planning
Scenario A: Continued Equity Strength (60% probability)
Characteristics : Institutional accumulation continues, economic resilience
Winners : NQ, ES, YM (maximize equity allocation)
Losers : GC, 6E (extension corrections)
Strategy : Aggressive equity positioning, defensive commodity stance
Scenario B: Market Consolidation (25% probability)
Characteristics : Range-bound trading around institutional levels
Winners : YM (optimal positioning), CL (institutional support)
Neutral : NQ, ES (trade ranges)
Strategy : Reduce position sizes, focus on institutional level trading
Scenario C: Risk-Off Environment (15% probability)
Characteristics : Institutional support failure, flight to quality
Winners : Cash, defensive positioning
Losers : All risk assets
Strategy : Emergency protocols, systematic position reduction
Trigger : Break below major institutional support levels
Weekly Monitoring Checklist
Daily Assessment
Institutional POC level respect across all markets
Volume quality and institutional engagement trends
Position sizing within risk parameters
Stop loss proximity to institutional levels
Weekly Review
Portfolio allocation vs. target percentages
Risk/reward ratios for all open positions
Institutional volume profile evolution
Correlation analysis across positions
Performance tracking vs. benchmarks
Monthly Evaluation
Quarterly volume profile updates
YTD POC alignment reassessment
Strategy performance attribution
Risk management protocol effectiveness
Market regime change identification
Key Success Factors
Institutional Intelligence Priority
Decision Hierarchy :
Institutional volume profile positioning (strategic)
YTD POC alignment validation (tactical)
Technical indicator confirmation (execution)
Risk management protocols (defensive)
Discipline Requirements
Systematic adherence to position sizing formulas
Emotional detachment from individual trade outcomes
Institutional level respect over short-term price action
Professional risk management with systematic protocols
Performance Expectations
Win Rate Target : 55-65% (institutional backing advantage)
Risk/Reward Minimum : 2:1 average across all trades
Maximum Drawdown : <8% of trading capital
Consistency : Positive monthly returns 65%+ of time
Disclaimer : All trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Position sizes and risk management protocols must be adjusted based on individual account size and risk tolerance. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered personalized investment advice.
Document Status : Active trading framework requiring weekly updates and quarterly reassessment.
WTI OIL Recent fractal calls for a buy towards $70.50.WTI Oil (USOIL) is on the 3rd straight green 1D candle following a Double Bottom bounce on the 61.50 Support. At the same time the 1D RSI formed Higher Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
The same set of conditions emerged on the May 05 bottom rebound, which resulted into initially a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and then a Resistance 2 contact.
As a result, we expect this rise to continue, targeting $70.50.
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Crude Oil - Eye twinkle to go long?The Test/Retest was expected, and it was not that clean as it is mostly. Usually I don't want to see price trading back into the fork again.
This time, price managed to jump out of it again and opened above the U-MLH. If it can close outside the fork too, then this would be a good hint for me to load the boat.
The 80% target is the yellow Centerline, or even higher, since the drillers moan about a too low price (Fundamental Fact).
Let's see if we find some petro dollars.
WTI OIL Short-term Channel Up 4H MA50 buy opportunity.Last week (August 26, see chart below) we caught the absolute low with our WTI Oil (USOIL) buy signal, hitting our $66.30 Target shortly after:
This time we have another buy signal on the short-term as the Channel Up that emerged has pulled-back all the way to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
The last 3 times it did so, it was a buy opportunity. Assuming this is another Higher Low bottom, the new Bullish Leg that is about to be initiated, should aim for the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, similar to what the previous two did.
This gives us a $66.75 Target for the short-term.
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Crude Oil Short After Finding A Recurring BehaviorAfter I cleared the CL chart, I immediately saw a behavior that we can use for a setup right now.
You see that the highs got cracked, and then immediately price turns to the south. And since we are in a downtrend on Crude, we have a legit Short-Trade at hand.
With the modified Shiff-Fork you see how nice CL is reacting at the U-MLH, where it get's rejected. This level also coincides with the crack level.
I personally would love a pullback up to the crack-zone before shorting it. Maybe the trading Gods give us a gift on this Wednesday.
Talking about Wednesday: today we get the Crude Oil EIA numbers, which will probably move the markets.
However you plan is if you trade it, don't have FOMO. There are many more trades to come in your trading career.
Have a happy hump day §8-)
OUR TRADE ON OIL FOR TODAYToday we went long on OIL after that the market grabbed a liquidity and gave us our entry point to take.
The market went straight to our target which was again a liquidity level, then it came lower.
I couldn't share the trade today since when we entered I was in a live trading session with my students.
Follow for more!
WTI OIL technically more chances to test the 1D MA50. Buy.Last week (August 20, see chart below) we issued a bullish break-out signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) that reached our $65.60 Target within 3 days:
This time we get a new buy signal, despite today's sharp pull-back. The -12.78% decline since the July 30 rejection, resembles the one since the October 08 2024 High.
This rebounded to just above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to form a new Lower High and get rejected again.
As a result, our immediate short-term Target is $66.30.
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WTI OIL Buy signal if the 4H MA50 breaks.WTI Oil (USOIL) appears to have found short-term Support since the August 13 Low, turning sideways, with its 4H RSI however on Higher Lows, thus displaying a Bullish Divergence.
This is similar to the June 24 - July 02 Bullish Divergence, which once it broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it topped a little over the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we will be waiting for the 4H MA50 bullish break-out signal to target $65.60 (Fib 0.382).
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CL (Oil Futures) Short Trade Idea 08/17Setup
• Type: Rejection of 4H/1H supply → continuation lower.
• Zone to arm: 62.90–63.30 (overlapping 30m/1H supply + prior shelf).
• Triggers (must have both):
• 15-minute bearish confirmation (lower high + close back below ~62.95 from the zone).
• 5-minute bearish close in the zone with order-flow tilt (absorption/failure to lift).
(No confirmation = no trade.)
Entry & Risk
• Entry: MOS on the confirming 5m close within 62.90–63.30.
• Stop: 63.62 (above 1H supply high/swing). ≈ 0.32–0.72 risk depending on fill.
• Size: Calibrate so full-stop loss = ≤ 1R of your plan.
Targets (R:R from 63.10 mid-entry, 0.52 stop)
• TP1: 61.80 (prior-week low/shelf) → ~2.5R
• TP2: 61.10 (1H demand edge) → ~3.8R
• TP3: 60.50 (deeper 4H demand) → ~5.0R
Management
• Scale 1/2 at TP1; trail above last 5m swing after a fresh LL or hold for TP2.
• If price tags 63.30–63.50 and closes 15m above 63.50, invalidate the short idea until structure resets.
• Avoid fresh risk within ~10–15 min of EIA Wed 10:30 ET; re-arm after the first post-release 15m bar closes.
Oil Market Insights: Demand Zones and Future FundamentalsYesterday, CL1! oil tested and rebounded from my weekly demand zone without triggering my entry, resulting in a missed opportunity for several points. This suggests to me that there is buying interest at this level, regardless of the fact that non-commercial traders are short. I am now looking for a retest of this area—if I'm fortunate—to enter a long position. I am also awaiting the new COT data tomorrow to assess any potential shifts in fundamentals. Additionally, I am considering the presence of a stronger demand zone below, which appears even more promising. We'll see how it unfolds.
✅ Please share your thoughts about CL1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Oil Trap Activated – Limit Orders Set for the Big Score💥🛢️Crude Oil Vault Breach Plan – DCA Heist Begins!🧨💰
🚨Asset: CL1!
📈Bias: BULLISH RAID MODE ON
🎯Target: $74.50
🛡️Stop Loss: $67.50
🔑Entry: ANY LEVEL – Thief stacking limit orders like layers of gold bars 💼⚖️ (DCA Mode Activated)
🕵️♂️Thief Trader is not chasing, we're ambushing 🧠 — scaling in smart with multiple limit traps. The crew never FOMOs, we trap the market 🎯.
💣This is a layered loot plan, not for weak hands. Watch how we load up quietly while market sleeps 😴, then hit hard when the vault cracks open 🔐.
Support this heist by smashing that ❤️LIKE button
💬 Comment your plans below & join the real thief squad
🤝 Together we rob the market — LEGALLY & LOGICALLY
#ThiefTrader #OilHeist #CL1 #BullishTrap #DCA #CrudeOilStrategy #SmartMoneyPlay #MarketRobbery #TeamLoot #NoRetailPanic
USOIL Robbery Alert! Smart Entry Plan Below Key MA Level🔐💥 “WTI Energy Heist: Thief Trader’s Bearish Master Plan” 💥🔐
The Official Robbery Blueprint for Smart Traders
🌟 Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🌟
💸 Welcome, Money Makers & Market Robbers! 💸
🚨 Get ready to break into the "US Oil Spot/WTI" market with precision-crafted bearish strategy from the one and only — Thief Trader Style!
📉💣 THE HEIST IS ON: SHORT PLAN LOADED! 💣📉
We’ve analyzed the charts using Thief Technicals + Fundamental Lockpick Tools and spotted a high-risk GREEN zone – a consolidation trap where greedy bulls usually get caught. This is where we strike.
🔑 ENTRY:
"Wait for the Neutral Moving Average to Break — Then Make Your Move!"
🎯 Focus zone: 64.50
☠️ Wait for the breakout – do NOT enter before it happens.
✅ Use sell stop orders above the MA line or place sell limit orders on the pullback after the breakout (target within the 15–30 min candle near swing high/low).
🧠 Thief Tip: Layer in entries using the DCA (layered attack strategy) to catch price on its way down. Set a chart alert so you don’t miss the strike moment.
🛑 STOP LOSS:
"Set it smart or don’t set it at all — you choose the fire you want to play with!"
📍 SL only gets placed AFTER breakout.
🎯 Recommended SL at 66.00 on the 4H swing level.
☠️ DO NOT place any orders or SL before confirmation breakout.
📊 Your SL depends on your risk %, lot size, and number of entries stacked.
🎯 TARGET ZONE: 62.50
💸 Lock profits before the bulls wake up. This level is based on market exhaustion zones and historical bounce areas.
🧠 WHY WE'RE SHORTING THIS?
This isn’t just a chart move — it’s backed by full-scale robbery research:
📰 COT Reports
📈 Macro & Seasonal Trends
🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories
💹 Sentiment & Intermarket Correlation
📉 Supply-Demand Dynamics
📚 Before pulling the trigger, educate yourself with the fundamentals. Dive into COT, Seasonal, and Macro reports. Don’t rob blindly — rob smart.
⚠️ Risk Management Alert:
Major news releases? Step back.
Trailing stops? Lock it in.
Position sizing? Know your risk.
Trade like a professional robber, not a street pickpocket.
💥💖 SUPPORT THE ROBBERY PLAN 💖💥
🧨 Smash that BOOST button to support this trading style and help more traders rob the market clean. Every like, every boost makes this community stronger.
💬 Drop a comment, share your entry levels, or post your winning trades.
This is a trading crew – we rob together, we profit together.
🔔 Stay tuned — more heist plans dropping soon.
Until then... Rob Smart. Trade Hard. Take Profits. 💰💪🎯
WTI OIL on its first 1D Death Cross since Sep 2024!WTI Oil (USOIL) is on the decline and is about to form a 1D Death Cross for the first time since September 06 2024! That is technically a bearish signal but last time once completed, the market formed a bottom 2 days later.
As a result, we expect a max drop to Support 1 ($60.05) but then more likely a rebound back to the Resistance ($71.40), especially given the fact that the 1D RSI will almost get oversold (>30.00).
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OUR TRADE FOR THE DAYEarly today, I posted that we'll be waiting for the market to give us an entry after grabbing the liquidity, we did have it and caught it.
I didn't share it since it was given to my students.
As you can see on the chart, the market gave us a FVG after that it did grab the liquidity which we entered based on to target again the LQ level to close with a good margin.
Follow for more!
WTI Under Attack – Rob the Market with This Bear Setup🛢️💣 WTI Oil Short Raid: Bearish Heist Activated! 💣🛢️
📉 Thief Trader’s Limit-Layered Attack Plan 🔐
💥 Attention Market Robbers & Chart Breakers! 💥
We're about to break into the XTIUSD / US Oil Spot vault — Bearish style.
🚨 The Setup:
This ain’t your average breakout — we’re talking high-precision, multi-layered entries on a downside raid.
🧠 Thief Trader Strategy: Drop limit orders at key zones like trip wires. Let price walk into your trap.
🎯 Plan:
🧱 Entry: Any level after MA resistance confirmation.
Layer multiple limit orders — DCA-style — after trend shows weakness.
🛑 Stop Loss: 66.300 🔒
Protect your vault. Place SL just above major 4H rejection zone.
🎯 Target: 60.000 💰
Profit at exhaustion level. This is where bulls cry, and we cash out.
🧠 Robbery Logic Backed By:
COT Data 📊
Crude Oil Inventories 🛢️
Macro + Sentiment Flows 🌐
Technical MA Break + Retest Patterns 🎯
🔥 Why this isn’t a random short?
Because thieves do research — not guesswork.
Bulls have overextended. Oil’s price is reacting to strong supply pressure and weakening demand outlook.
⚠️ Risk Note:
No entry without trend confirmation.
No blind shots — place alerts and wait for the setup.
This is a sniper job, not a shotgun spray.
💬 Join the Robbery Crew
Smash that ❤️ & Boost if you're riding with the thieves!
Drop your charts, entries, or sniper shots in the comments 💬
We rob together. We win together.
🔔 Follow for more heist plans – next market break-in coming soon.
💰 Rob Smart. Trade Sharp. Exit Clean. 🏴☠️