Get started

Commodities

Why Did Natural Gas Fall by 50 % in One Day ? - AnalysisWhat you’re seeing is not a real 50% collapse in natural gas prices, but a futures contract rollover effect. Natural gas trades in monthly contracts, and each month has its own price based on expected supply, demand, and especially weather risk. The February contract often carries a big premium in winter because of heating demand and cold-weather risks, while the March contract can trade much lower if those risks are expected to ease. When trading platforms switch from showing the expiring February contract to the March one, it can look like a massive price drop, but in reality, it’s just a shift from one contract to another with different fundamentals. If you had an open position, you would not automatically lose 50% just because of this chart change. Your profit or loss is calculated based on the specific contract you traded (e.g., February gas), not the new one displayed. A large loss would only occur if your position was actually closed and reopened in the new contract at the lower price, which is a rollover transaction, not a market crash. So the dramatic percentage drop you see is mostly a visual effect of switching contracts, not natural gas suddenly becoming half as valuable. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Asset prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or professional trader. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by bossout10
19
New Analysis – West Texas Oil (WTI)Those who follow my work know that we have posted multiple oil analyses in a row, all of them successful, closed with high reward ratios ✅ But let me be very clear: ❌ I’m not part of OPEC ❌ I’m not a politician ❌ I don’t have access to political or economic decisions No one knows what’s really going on in Powell’s mind, what Trump plans to do with Iran, or what the future holds for Venezuela, Cuba, or others. 📌 These are market drivers, but we have zero access to policymakers’ decision rooms. We are simply small traders, trying to extract profits from opportunities — nothing more. 🔎 In this analysis, after making solid profits, I’m willing to risk a small portion of those gains. This setup carries higher risk, and that’s fully intentional. 📉 At the moment, we are sitting at a good area to sell oil. 🔁 If this level breaks, as always, I’ll wait for a pullback and look for a long position. 🎯 No bias, no predictions — just following the market. 🌹 Stay safe & stay profitable
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by ForexCSP
West Texas Oil (WTI)Those who follow my work know that we have shorted oil multiple times and successfully built profits. In my previous post, I clearly mentioned the final short target, and price reached it perfectly. 🔁 Now the situation has changed, and I see a buying opportunity on the chart. We are traders — we build profits from opportunities, not from bias. I entered a long position at lower levels, and in my view, this area still offers a valid buying opportunity. As I always say: I’m not a political analyst, not an oil analyst, and not an OPEC member. I’m simply a trader who follows a clear rule: Price reaches my level and gives a signal → I buy The level breaks and gives the opposite signal → I sell 📉📈 I don’t care whether the market goes up or down. There is no bias here. An opportunity is identified, execution is done, and the rest is up to the market. ❗️Never try to stand in front of the market and tell it where it should go because of a trendline or an indicator. The market moves ruthlessly in its own direction — and if you fight it, you’ll only be left watching. 🎯 Real trading skill is finding a way to move with the market, even when it doesn’t agree with you. 🌹 Stay safe & stay profitable
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ForexCSP
Gold Weekly Levels: Break above 5055/5065 → 5210/5220🔱 GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ✨ Bulls remain in control as price pushes toward overhead liquidity 🟡 Key unlock level: 5055–5065 — a clean break and acceptance above opens continuation fuel 🚀 Breakout continuation objective: 5210–5220 primary upside objective and overshoot zone 🧲 Fresh overhead sell-side liquidity: 5055–5065 then 5210–5220 high-probability magnet zones 🔄 Expectation after 5210–5220: profit-taking wave and corrective rotation lower into fresh buy-side pools 🛡 Transition pivot: 5210–5220 where longs should be exiting and reversal stalking begins ⚠️ Bears’ post-extension objectives: 4875–4885 then 4775–4785 — fresh buy-side liquidity targets below 🎯 Strategy this week: trade the breakout into 5210–5220, then shift mindset to correction timing 🏦 Core play: don’t chase highs inside 5210–5220; scale out into target, then stalk confirmed reversal 🗳️ Gold Weekly Scenarios — What’s Your Play? Which path do you have for XAUUSD next week? 🅰️ Hold above and accept through 5055–5065 → breakout triggers → run to 5210–5220 🅱️ Early-week stall at 5055–5065 → brief pullback → reclaim and acceptance → squeeze into 5210–5220 🅲 Direct drive into 5210–5220 → reversal confirmed → correction targets 4875–4885 then 4775–4785 🅳 Your key level: 5055–5065
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
52
GOLD - The market bought the dip. ATH retest. 5150?FX:XAUUSD , after an aggressive rally, faced a correction (profit-taking) near 5100. However, the market is quickly buying back the decline and is once again storming the ATH with the aim of continuing its growth. Fundamental situation - Trump continues to escalate relations with Canada (new tariffs) and maintains tensions with the EU... - Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Abu Dhabi ended without result, which maintains geopolitical risks. - The Fed meeting (decision on January 31) will be the main event of the week. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but Powell's tone could cause volatility. However, the market expects two Fed rate cuts in 2026. Technically, the market has the potential to continue its movement due to fundamental support. Resistance levels: 5100, 5111, 5125, 5150 Support levels: 5075, 5055 In the current situation, it is logical to consider two scenarios: - steady growth without pullbacks and a storming of resistance could lead to a breakout of 5100 and an upward momentum. Local target 5125-5150 - retest of the liquidity zone (long-squeeze) 5075 - 5055 before continuing growth Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
41
THE DOLLAR IS CRACKING | HISTORIC 4-YEAR LOWS 🚨 THE DOLLAR IS CRACKING | HISTORIC 4-YEAR LOWS 🚨 The TVC:DXY (USD Index) has officially reached a critical tipping point. We haven't seen these levels in 4 years, and the global markets are feeling the heat. This is the definition of a "Make or Break" zone. 📉 THE CRITICAL LEVEL: 94 The dollar is currently hovering at 96. If we see a weekly candle close below 94, the dollar officially enters a structural breakdown. * If it breaks: It will be "hard" to ever recover that ground. * The Result: A massive capital flight into hard assets—most notably GOLD. 💰 MARKET SNAPSHOT (TODAY): * 💵 USD Index: 96.00 * 🟡 GOLD: $5,266 * ⚪️ SILVER: $115.2 * 📈 Nasdaq: 26,210 * 💷 GBP/USD: 1.3812 * 🇦🇪 XAU/AED: 19312 THOUGHTS: The inverse correlation is screaming. As the Dollar loses its grip, Gold and Silver are entering a new era of price discovery. This week's close determines the next decade of macro trends. Stay sharp. Stay hedged. 🛡 --- ✨ ✨ The pulse of the markets.
TVC:DXY
by Ash_TheTrader
Hellena | Oil (4H): LONG to resistance area 62.545.Colleagues, after a strong upward movement, I decided to observe the price and understand what is happening. Now I believe that this movement resembles the beginning of an “ABC” correction, which means that the higher-order wave “A” ended at 54.956. This means that we can expect the upward movement to continue at least to the resistance area of 62.545. A correction to the support area of 58.890 is possible. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by Hellena_Trade
19
Gold Bullish Outlook - Buy Zone & 5200 TargetGold remains in a clear bullish market structure. Price is trading well above the rising long term trendline and has already confirmed multiple Break of Structure showing strong institutional buying interest. After the impulsive rally from the 4550-4620 base price paused briefly in consolidation and then expanded higher validating the continuation trend rather than a distribution phase. Currently gold is undergoing a healthy corrective pullback after testing the resistance near 5094. The pullback is aligning perfectly with the premium discount zone where the 4840-4760 overlaps with previous structure support and trendline confluence. This strongly suggests the move is corrective not a trend reversal. As long as price holds above 4760 the bullish structure remains intact and this pullback should be treated as a buy the dip opportunity. A strong bullish rejection from the buy zone or a confirmed 4H close back above 4970 would signal continuation toward higher targets. From a fundamental perspective gold continues to be supported by persistent geopolitical risks global economic uncertainty and expectations of looser US monetary policy going forward. The market is increasingly pricing in slower US growth which keeps real yields under pressure and limits USD strength both positive for gold. Additionally ongoing central bank gold accumulation and safe-haven demand further strengthen the upside bias. Unless we see a surprise hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve or a sharp USD rebound downside moves in gold are likely to remain corrective and short lived. Trade Plan: Buy Zone: 4840 – 4800 Buy Trigger: Bullish rejection from the buy zone or a strong 4H close above 4970 Targets: 5095 → 5172 → 5200 Invalidation: Sustained 4H close below 4760 Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by SibiSh
Gold Short Analysis – Bullish Trend & TradeGold remains bullish but corrective on the 1H chart, trading within a rising channel. Price has reacted from the 4960-4980 demand zone and is attempting to hold above the trendline support. As long as this zone holds the overall structure favors continuation higher though a brief pullback or consolidation is still possible before the next leg up. Trade Plan: Buy Zone: 4980 – 4960 Buy Trigger: Bullish rejection from the buy zone or a strong 1H/4H close above 5100 Targets: 5,100 → 5,165 → 5,210 Invalidation: Sustained break and close below 4,940 Fundamentally gold is supported by geopolitical uncertainty expectations of a more accommodative Fed stance and ongoing pressure on the US dollar and real yields. Any risk-off sentiment or weaker US data can further fuel upside while only a sharp USD rebound or hawkish surprises may slow the bullish momentum. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SibiSh
2
#USDJPY , Follow it !📊 Morning Market Brief | London Session Prep 🔎 Instrument Focus: #USDJPY ⚠️ Risk Environment: High 📈 Technical Overview: Crazy moves by USDINDEX and it keep dropping so lets be same way of Momentum ENTRY ONLY AND ONLY BY LTF entry sign 🚀 Trading Plan: • LTF ENTRY NEEDED • Just and Only for QuickScalp 🧠 Stay updated with real time news and macro events, visit 👉 @News_Ash_TheTrader_Bot #Ash_TheTrader #Forex #EURUSD #MarketInsight #PriceAction #TradingPlan #RiskManagement #LondonSession #Scalping #Futures #NQ #Gold
Short
by Ash_TheTrader
Gold Price Analysis - XAUUSD Near Premium ZoneGold remains in a strong bullish structure trading inside a well defined ascending channel. Price has recently pushed into the upper premium zone near 4960-4970. Momentum is slowing here and the rejection wicks suggest buying pressure is fading at the channel top. Structurally the trend is still bullish but price is extended and vulnerable to a healthy pullback. Key retracement levels at 4850, 4813 and 4777 aligning well with the channel midline and prior structure making them strong magnet zones if a correction unfolds. As long as price holds above the lower channel and 4760-4780 demand the broader bullish bias remains intact. Trade Plan: Sell Zone: 4950 - 4970 Sell Trigger: 4900 - 4930. Only valid once an H1 candle closes bearish and breaks back below the prior H1 structure Targets: 4850 – 4813 – 4777 Invalidation: A clean H1 close above 4985 with momentum invalidates the short idea and signals bullish continuation toward 5000+ Buy the dip not the top. Wait for confirmation inside 4770-4750. Structure favors continuation toward 4950+. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Stop!Loss|Market View: SILVER🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for SILVER ☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 115.78874 💰TP: 92.94021 ⛔️SL: 125.46576 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: Metals are still considered for short-term buy, but given today's Fed meeting and its interest rate decision, prices could reverse sharply based on Powell's potential rhetoric. Rhetoric favoring keeping rates unchanged would allow buyers to lock in after the rally, thereby triggering a correction in silver toward the 95 level. Selling is only considered in this scenario, and most likely during the Fed press conference itself. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by StopLoss222
Gold Is Not Overextended — This Pullback Is the Setup Before ATHGold is not rejecting at the highs; it is rebalancing after an impulsive breakout. The current pullback is technically healthy, showing controlled candles and overlapping price action as price rotates back into a prior breakout support zone aligned with the rising EMA. There is no structural breakdown, no displacement to the downside, and no acceptance below support all signs of correction, not distribution. From a liquidity perspective, this dip is clearing weak longs and attracting premature shorts while larger players accumulate at demand. As long as this support holds, the dominant bullish structure remains intact, and the path of least resistance continues toward a new all-time high, supported by the broader macro backdrop of easing expectations, persistent geopolitical risk, and ongoing central bank demand.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HENRY_TraderGold
Gold Tests Buy-Side Liquidity — Rotation or Continuation?OANDA:XAUUSD | Daily Smart Money Plan – H1 Gold remains within a well-defined bullish structure after a strong multi-session expansion. Price is now trading deep in premium, hovering just below the recent highs around 5,110–5,116, where external buy-side liquidity has already been engineered and partially tapped. Today’s price action is unfolding against a hot macro backdrop: Markets are reacting to renewed Fed rate-path uncertainty, unstable U.S. yields, and ongoing geopolitical risk, all of which continue to fuel safe-haven interest in gold. While headlines can amplify volatility, Smart Money execution on H1 suggests distribution and rebalancing, not aggressive continuation. Rather than accelerating higher, price is compressing near highs — a classic signal that institutions may be selling strength before guiding price back into value. Market Structure & Liquidity Context Higher-timeframe bias remains bullish Prior BOS confirms trend strength Recent CHoCH signals transition from impulse → rotation External buy-side liquidity has been tested above 5,100 Clear discount draw rests below at H1 demand + imbalance Market logic favors premium delivery → discount mitigation ➡️ News creates volatility, but liquidity defines direction Key Trading Scenarios 🔴 Sell Reaction at Premium (Primary Scenario) 5,108 – 5,116 SL: 5,125 Confluence: External liquidity near recent highs Premium pricing in mature bullish leg Weak follow-through after liquidity grab Rejection or lack of acceptance here favors a corrective rotation. 🟢 Buy Reaction at Discount (Scenario A) 4,995 – 4,980 SL: 4,970 Prior H1 support + order block Liquidity buy zone shown on chart Ideal area for bullish continuation after confirmation 🟢 Buy Reaction at Deeper Discount (Scenario B) 4,950 – 4,948 (FVG) SL: 4,940 Unmitigated imbalance Deeper liquidity sweep if premium fully unwinds High-probability Smart Money reload zone Invalidation Sustained H1 acceptance above 5,125 invalidates the corrective thesis and opens continuation toward higher expansion targets. Expectation & Bias This is not a breakout-chasing environment Liquidity comes before direction Acceptance = continuation Rejection = rotation Execution > Prediction 💬 Will Gold accept value above 5,110 on Fed-driven volatility — or return to discount for rebalancing first?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wendy_Grace
2
Gold’s Parabolic Advance Is Losing Time — Not TrendTODAY'S LIMITED STRATEGY JAN 27 Intraday trading: Adjust 📌 SET UP 1. Timming Sell Zone XAUUSD SELL ZONE: 5145 - 5148 💰 Take Profit(TP): 5142 - 5137 ❎ Stoploss(SL): 5152 Note capital management to ensure account safety 📌 SET UP 2. Timming Buy Zone XAUUSD BUY ZONE: 4980 - 4983 💰 Take Profit(TP): 4986 - 4991 ❎ Stoploss(SL): 4976 Note: capital management to ensure account safety Gold is still trading inside a strong bullish cycle, but this chart shows the market is transitioning from expansion to timing correction, not straight continuation. The impulsive leg completed a clear Elliott Wave 1–5 sequence, with Wave (5) topping near the upper Fibonacci arc and psychological exhaustion zone. Price is now reacting below that curvature resistance, signaling momentum deceleration, not structural failure. From a technical perspective, the Fibonacci arcs + measured impulse suggest price has entered an ABC corrective phase, where liquidity is rebalanced before the next directional decision. The key level to watch is the ~4,920–4,980 zone, which aligns with prior structure, Fib confluence, and corrective Wave (C) potential this is where continuation is either validated or the cycle pauses deeper. From a macro lens, gold remains structurally supported by rate-cut expectations, persistent geopolitical risk, and central bank accumulation, but markets never move in straight lines. Strong macro trends still require technical resets to reload positioning. This is why pullbacks during bull cycles are often violent but corrective, designed to flush late longs before continuation. If buyers defend the corrective zone and reclaim momentum, the longer-term upside toward new ATHs above 5,280 remains intact. Until then, this is a timing market, not a direction market patience matters more than prediction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BlackGoldMarket
Is Not Reversing — It’s Deciding Where the Next ATH StartsOANDA:XAUUSD just printed a sharp pullback after failing to hold above the ATH range, but structurally this is not a breakdown. Price is currently reacting around the prior breakout support, while the deeper demand zone below remains untested, acting as a liquidity magnet if downside continuation occurs. From a technical standpoint, this is a classic post impulse correction: strong expansion → distribution near highs → liquidity sweep → decision point . If buyers defend the current support and reclaim the ATH range, continuation toward the next upside target is back on the table; however, failure here likely sends price into the demand zone to rebalance inefficiencies before the next leg. Macro wise, gold still benefits from rate-cut expectations, geopolitical risk, and central bank accumulation but price still needs liquidity before expansion. This is not a prediction chart. it’s a conditional map: hold support and break ATH = continuation; lose support = deeper reset before the real move.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BlackGoldMarket
3
9 Crucial Tips to Avoid Major Losses in TradingTrading Is Not About Winning — It’s About Survival In trading, the objective is not to win every trade. The true objective is to stay in the game long enough for your edge to work. The difference between traders who grow consistently and those who eventually wash out rarely comes down to strategy alone. More often, it comes down to one critical skill: the ability to avoid catastrophic losses. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, the following nine principles focus on capital preservation, emotional control, and long-term sustainability. 1. The First Rule: Do Not Lose Everything The greatest risk in trading is not losing a trade — it is losing your entire account. Large losses are often unrecoverable: - Financially - Emotionally - Psychologically Every trader has a personal threshold where losses become mentally destructive. Identifying and respecting that threshold is a core part of risk management. Trading should be treated as a business, not a shortcut to quick wealth. Longevity always beats short-term excitement. 2. Value Real Market Experience Experience gained through real exposure to the market is invaluable. This includes: - Trading through different market conditions - Learning from past mistakes - Interacting with experienced traders Experience helps you: - Recognize recurring patterns - Avoid common traps - Separate genuine market knowledge from unrealistic marketing promises In a market full of noise, experience acts as a filter. 3. Understand the Mathematics of Recovery Losses are asymmetric. - A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover - A 90% loss requires a 900% gain to break even This mathematical reality makes strict risk control non-negotiable. Large losses also create psychological damage, leading to hesitation, fear, and inconsistent execution in future trades. 4. Write a Clear Trading Plan A written trading plan should clearly define: - Your level of commitment (part-time or full-time) - Daily, weekly, and monthly loss limits - Conditions under which trading must be paused or stopped Discipline is far easier to maintain when rules are visible and predefined, especially in the early stages of trading. 5. Manage the Emotional Impact of Losses Losses are not just numerical — they carry emotional weight. A single bad trading day can: - Cloud judgment - Increase impulsive behavior - Damage confidence Develop systems to manage emotional stress, such as: - Keeping a trading journal - Stepping away from the market after losses - Seeking mentorship or peer feedback 6. Set Hard Rules and Use Platform Safeguards Do not rely solely on willpower. Use: - Hard stop-loss orders - Maximum position-size limits - Broker-level risk controls when available Technical safeguards exist to protect your account during volatile conditions and emotionally driven decisions. 7. Limit Exposure During High-Volatility Periods Not all trading days are equal. On days with: - Major news events - Unusual volatility - Emotional instability Consider limiting capital exposure. Many professional traders keep only enough funds in their trading account to cover four to six days of maximum losses, reducing the risk of catastrophic damage from a single day. 8. Separate Trading Capital from Investment Capital Trading and investing serve different purposes and should be treated separately. - Trading is tactical and short-term - Investing is strategic and long-term Keeping them in separate accounts ideally with different brokers reduces emotional interference and prevents impulsive decisions under pressure. 9. Scale Position Size Gradually and Responsibly Begin with the smallest possible position size. Only increase size after: - Demonstrating consistent execution - Achieving stable performance over time A practical guideline is to increase size only after meeting performance targets consistently over several weeks, not after a single good streak. For newer traders, automatic stop orders are essential. They protect capital and prevent emotional decision-making during fast market movements. Final Thoughts Trading success is not about constant wins or dramatic gains. It is about: - Capital preservation - Emotional discipline - Consistent execution Survival is the foundation of profitability. Those who respect risk, focus on process, and treat trading as a professional skill not a gamble are the ones who last.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Andree_Fx
3
Gold ATH Squeeze — Watch the Demand ReclaimGold is trading around 5,074 after a strong impulse into the ATH band (~5,110). What matters here is structure: price is no longer trending cleanly it’s rotating between the ATH ceiling and a clearly defined demand shelf (~5,000–5,020). That’s not weakness by default. This is exactly how markets behave before the next expansion: they shake liquidity inside a box, punish late chasers, then choose direction. upside path to ~5,199 is plausible, but it’s not “guaranteed.” The market must confirm by holding demand and reclaiming ATH. ATH / supply cap: ~5,110 → Break + hold above = continuation signal. Demand zone (must hold): ~5,000–5,020 → Lose this = bullish plan paused / deeper retrace opens. EMA98 (trend support): ~4,943 → Next magnet if demand fails. Lower demand: ~4,900–4,920 → Final “buyers must show up” zone for trend to stay healthy. Trade plan (rule-based) ✅ Bull continuation (only after confirmation) Trigger: Price holds 5,000–5,020 and then reclaims 5,110 with a clean close/acceptance. Entry idea: On the reclaim retest (ATH flips to support). Targets: T1: 5,110 → quick scale if momentum stalls T2: 5,199 (your projected next target) Invalidation: Sustained acceptance back under 5,000. ⚠️ Pullback scenario (if demand breaks) Trigger: Breakdown below 5,000 + failed reclaim (bearish retest). Downside magnets: EMA98 ~4,943 4,900–4,920 demand Execution note: if you’re long-biased, this is where you stop predicting and start waiting for a real reclaim signal again. Bottom line This is a high-probability setup zone, not a certainty. Above 5,110 = expansion mode (5,199 in play). Below 5,000 = pullback mode (EMA98 / lower demand).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by XauMasterNetwork
Gold Continues to Set New HighsGold prices continue to climb, trading around $5,060 in early Tuesday’s session. The precious metal remains firmly in an ongoing bullish streak, supported by growing concerns over financial and geopolitical instability. From a technical perspective, gold is moving within a short-term ascending channel, and the path of least resistance remains to the upside. The immediate objective is a reclaim of the $5,100 resistance zone, which could open the door for further gains. On the downside, any corrective move is likely to find strong support in the $5,000–$4,980 area, viewed as the next key demand zone. In terms of momentum, gold’s rally accelerated following fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend. Just days after easing pressure on certain European allies over the Greenland sovereignty issue, Trump stated on Saturday that he would impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports if Ottawa were to reach a trade agreement with China. This rhetoric has intensified market uncertainty and boosted safe-haven demand. At the same time, the risk of another U.S. federal government shutdown is resurfacing. Several Democratic senators have announced plans to vote against the upcoming budget bill next week, following the fatal shooting of a second American by federal agents in Minneapolis on January 24. This adds another layer of political tension to an already fragile environment. Moreover, frequent policy shifts by the U.S. administration are contributing to a climate of uncertainty, prompting investors to move away from the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds, traditionally considered gold’s main safe-haven competitors. Gold’s sharp surge reflects not only geopolitical risks but also ongoing de-dollarization trends in several economies and expectations of lower U.S. interest rates. Market participants largely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged after its upcoming two-day meeting on January 27–28. The meeting takes place amid heightened tension after Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit against him, which he described as another attempt by the executive branch to pressure the Fed. Against this backdrop, gold continues to benefit and reinforce its role as a premier safe-haven asset, amid rising geopolitical, trade, and monetary uncertainty.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Win_Sama
1
Gold at Decision Zone – GAP Reaction Will Define the Next MoveMarket Context (Fundamentals → Flow) Recent sessions continue to be driven by elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty. Risk sentiment remains fragile as markets reassess global political tensions and their implications for trade, energy routes, and monetary stability. As a result: USD remains under pressure, lacking strong follow-through buying Equities show signs of fatigue near highs Gold continues to attract defensive flows, keeping the broader bullish structure intact This environment supports trend continuation, but not without technical pullbacks. Technical Structure (H1–H4) Gold is trading within a well-defined ascending channel Multiple BOS (Break of Structure) confirm the bullish trend The recent impulsive leg created a bullish GAP / imbalance Price is now reacting near the mid-channel decision zone, where continuation vs. deeper retrace is decided ➡️ Trend is bullish, but location matters. Key Levels to Watch Current resistance: 5,080 – 5,100 GAP / reaction zone: 5,020 – 5,000 Major demand (FVG): 4,960 – 4,940 Invalidation: H1 close below 4,940 Scenarios (If – Then) Scenario 1 – GAP Holds (Primary Bias) If price holds above 5,000 Buyers defend the imbalance → Continuation toward 5,120 – 5,180 within the channel Scenario 2 – Deeper Pullback (Healthy Correction) If price loses 5,000 Expect a retrace into 4,960 – 4,940 FVG Bullish reaction here keeps the higher-timeframe trend intact Only a clean break and acceptance below 4,940 would weaken the bullish structure. Summary Gold is not topping — it is pausing at a decision zone. In a risk-sensitive environment, pullbacks are opportunities, not threats.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
7