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Midnight NIGHT price analysis📊 OKX:NIGHTUSDT.P is approaching the end of consolidation Price is currently compressing while the broader market remains weak — a classic setup for a volatility expansion. 🔹 Bullish scenario: – Breakout above range – Target zone: $0.18 – Implied market cap: ~$3B 🔹 Bearish scenario: – Breakdown below support – Target zone: $0.025 – Market cap falls to $350–400M 🧠 Given the short trading history of Midnight and current risk-off sentiment, direction may be driven more by momentum than fundamentals. Key focus: wait for confirmation and follow strength. ❓ Which scenario do you consider more likely — continuation up or deeper correction? ______________ ◆ Follow us ❤️ for daily crypto insights & updates! 🚀 Don’t miss out on important market moves 🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud
OKX:NIGHTUSDT.P
by P_S_trade
Episode 12 (12/18): “After the Cut, the World Holds Its Breath”Episode 12 (12/18): “After the Cut, the World Holds Its Breath” Narrator (slow, thunderous): The blast has already been fired… but the dust refuses to settle. Powell has already released the 25-basis-point Kamehameha. Not to win. Not to celebrate. But to stop the planet from ripping itself apart. The ground beneath the U.S. economy stops cracking. Credit stays open. The plumbing hums instead of screams. Yields drop to one knee but they do not fall. This is not surrender. This is restraint. The sky goes unnaturally still. Markets hover above the battlefield not cheering, not fleeing, waiting to see what gravity does next. Gold begins to burn brighter not as fear… but as vigilance. A sentinel watching the horizon for the thing that hasn’t arrived yet. Long bonds rise… hesitate… and flicker. Their aura unstable. Unsure whether this was relief or merely the pause before the next shockwave. Equities hold their stance. Feet planted in cracked stone. Power levels steady no charge, no collapse. This is not victory. This is containment. But every blast sends ripples. Funding loosens. The cost of leverage falls. Carry trades inhale — quietly, dangerously as if whispering to themselves: “Just a little more…” And far across the ocean… Ueda opens his eyes. He doesn’t see calm. He doesn’t see relief. He sees energy pooling where it shouldn’t. A carry trade swollen with borrowed power. A system that only breaks when gravity snaps back all at once. Ueda doesn’t rush forward. He doesn’t strike. He plants his feet. The BOJ’s next move is not an attack it is a weight drop. A rate hike not meant to destroy the battlefield but to force it back to the ground before it tears itself apart later. This is the Containment Arc. Powell moved first to keep demand alive. Ueda prepares next to keep leverage honest. Different fighters. Opposite auras. The same shadow stretching across the world. If the timing aligns, the planet holds. If it doesn’t… Carry snaps. Liquidity vanishes. And the blast radius hits everything at once. The cut bought time. Now the battlefield shifts to Tokyo. Two central bankers. One global system suspended in mid-air. No capes. No heroes. Just auras, gravity, and fate.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MerloClover-PugetPointCapital
GBPUSD Trading Plan – Liquidity Sweeps & POI ReactionGBPUSD Analysis – Thursday, December 18 Welcome traders! 👋 We analyze the market every single day to stay aligned with clean structure, liquidity, and high-probability setups. Let’s dive into today’s GBPUSD outlook 👇 🔍 Market Overview GBPUSD remains bullish on the higher timeframes — weekly, daily, and 4H — with structure still intact overall. However, over the previous sessions, significant buy-side liquidity has been taken, which often signals distribution or a deeper retracement phase rather than immediate continuation. With high-impact news scheduled today for both GBP and USD, volatility is expected, and patience will be critical. For today, despite the higher-timeframe bullish trend, the intraday expectation leans bearish, focusing on corrective moves from premium zones. 📌 Today’s Trading Scenarios (Thursday – Dec 18) 🔻 Scenario 1 – Premium Sweep → POI → Bearish Expansion (Preferred) Price may: .Sweep liquidity above, .This liquidity aligns with previous Asia session levels and the previous daily high, .Tap into the POI, .And from there initiate a bearish move, targeting lower liquidity. This scenario fits a classic sell-from-premium model after buy-side liquidity has already been taken. 🔻 Scenario 2 – Sell-Side Sweep → POI → Bearish Continuation Alternatively, price may: .First sweep sell-side liquidity below, aligned with the previous daily low, .Retrace back into the POI, .And then continue the bearish move from that level. This scenario reflects a liquidity grab below before continuation lower. ⚠️ Risk & Execution Notes .High-impact GBP & USD news today = expect volatility .The market is never 100% predictable .Wait for clear confirmation before entry .Apply strict risk management .Let liquidity + structure guide execution, not emotions I’d love to hear your thoughts 💬 Do you expect a clean retracement, or a sharper distribution move today? 📘 Educational Note: This analysis is for educational and illustrative purposes only. Always follow your own plan, confirm with your strategy, and manage risk carefully. Success in trading comes from discipline, patience, and consistency. 💪 🚀 Empowering traders through clarity, confidence & clean charts. Follow 👉 parisa_tl for more SMC setups and weekly insights 💙 #GBPUSD #ForexAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #LiquiditySweep #MarketStructure #POI #OrderBlock #PriceAction #FXTrading #HighImpactNews #TradingView #DailyAnalysis #RiskManagement #parisa_tl
by parisa_tl
Alibaba May Be Breaking DownAlibaba climbed sharply in September, but some traders may think it’s giving back the gains. The first pattern on today’s chart is the failed rally after the last earnings report on November 25. BABA has made lower highs since that session, resulting in a potentially bearish descending triangle. Second, prices closed below the triangle’s bottom yesterday. Could that represent a breakdown? Third, last month’s peak continued a succession of lower weekly highs. Prices are also below the 50-day simple moving average. Those signals may be consistent with a bearish intermediate-term trend. Next, MACD is falling and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. Those signals may reflect a bearish short-term trend. Finally, BABA is an active underlier in the options market. (It’s averaged 166,000 contracts per session in the last month, according to TradeStation data.) That may help traders take positions with calls and puts. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:BABA
by TradeStation
TESLA Free Signal! Buy! Hello,Traders! TESLA smart money defended the horizontal demand after a clean sell-side liquidity sweep. Strong bullish displacement confirms institutional re-entry, with price holding above the mitigation block and targeting the next buy-side liquidity resting at equal highs. -------------------- Stop Loss: 463.98$ Take Profit: 505.66$ Entry: 483.07$ Time Frame: 4H -------------------- Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TopTradingSignals
1
Amazon - The Hidden OpenAI Play Before IPO, $210-220 SupportAmazon - The Hidden OpenAI Play Before IPO, $210-220 Support Entry Amazon: Positioning as OpenAI's Infrastructure Partner Before the IPO Window While the market focuses on Microsoft as OpenAI's primary partner, Amazon is quietly positioning itself as the diversification play that could unlock billions in recurring AI infrastructure revenue. With a minimum $10 billion commitment to OpenAI and strategic discussions around custom AI chip deployment, Amazon offers exposure to the OpenAI growth story at a structural support level that provides defined entry risk. 🎯 The Strategic Play: Amazon's $10 Billion OpenAI Commitment: Amazon has committed at least $10 billion to OpenAI, but this isn't just a financial investment - it's a strategic infrastructure partnership. The deal positions Amazon Web Services (AWS) as OpenAI's diversification partner away from Microsoft Azure dominance. Why This Matters: Reduces single-vendor risk for OpenAI's massive compute needs Opens AWS as a hosting platform for OpenAI workloads Custom chip integration potentially using Amazon's Trainium/Inferentia Equity stake gives Amazon ownership upside if/when OpenAI goes public Alexa integration potential for next-generation AI assistant capabilities Current Market Context: AMZN Price: $200-240 range Market Cap: ~$2.4 trillion Technical Setup: Testing major support zone Catalyst Timeline: OpenAI infrastructure decisions and potential IPO window 📊 Why $210-220 is the Entry Zone: Technical Support Confluence: The $210-220 area represents a critical accumulation zone where multiple technical factors converge: Previous consolidation support from earlier 2024 trading Volume profile node showing institutional buying activity Psychological level near $200 round number Pullback into demand after extended rally earlier in year Risk/Reward at Support: Entry: $210-220 zone Stop: Below $200 (psychological and structural support) Target 1: $280 (previous resistance, 30% upside) Target 2: $320 (extension target, 50% upside) Risk/Reward: 5:1 to 8:1 depending on exact entry Why Now: Market has pulled back from highs, creating entry opportunity before OpenAI infrastructure announcements and potential IPO catalysts materialize in 2025. 💡 The OpenAI Infrastructure Angle: Microsoft's Monopoly Problem: OpenAI currently relies heavily on Microsoft Azure for compute infrastructure. This single-vendor dependency creates: Risk concentration if Azure faces issues Pricing leverage for Microsoft Capacity constraints during demand spikes Strategic limitation in vendor negotiations Amazon as Plan B (and Eventually Plan A?): If OpenAI shifts even 20% of compute workloads to AWS, that translates to: Billions in recurring AWS revenue (high-margin cloud business) Multi-year contracts providing revenue visibility Upselling opportunities for other AWS services Competitive positioning against Microsoft in AI infrastructure The Math: OpenAI's compute costs are estimated in the billions annually and growing exponentially. A 20% shift to AWS could represent: $2-4 billion annual revenue for Amazon (conservative estimate) 70%+ margins on cloud infrastructure Recurring nature creates compounding value 🔧 Amazon's Custom AI Chip Advantage: Trainium and Inferentia: Amazon has developed custom AI chips specifically for training and inference workloads: Cost Advantage: 40% cheaper than Nvidia H100 GPUs (industry standard) Better price/performance for specific workloads No Nvidia supply constraints (Amazon controls production) Strategic Importance: Reduces CAPEX for OpenAI's massive compute needs Faster deployment without Nvidia waitlists Customization potential for OpenAI-specific workloads OpenAI Exploring Amazon's Chips: Reports indicate OpenAI is actively evaluating Amazon's AI chips. If adopted: Validates Amazon's chip strategy Creates dependency on AWS ecosystem Locks in multi-year infrastructure relationship 🤖 Alexa Integration Wildcard: The Opportunity: Amazon's Alexa has struggled to compete with newer AI assistants. OpenAI integration could transform Alexa into: ChatGPT-powered voice assistant with superior conversational AI Multi-modal capabilities (voice, vision, reasoning) Competitive parity with Google Assistant and Siri Monetization vehicle for premium AI features Why It Matters: Alexa is in 500+ million devices globally Integration would be immediate distribution for OpenAI Creates consumer-facing AI revenue stream for Amazon Differentiates Echo devices in smart home market 💰 The Equity Upside: Amazon Gets OpenAI Equity: As part of the $10 billion investment, Amazon receives equity in OpenAI. If OpenAI goes public (rumored $100B+ valuation): Scenario Analysis: Conservative: Amazon owns 2-3% of OpenAI at $100B valuation = $2-3B equity value Moderate: Amazon owns 5% at $150B valuation = $7.5B equity value Aggressive: Amazon owns 8% at $200B valuation = $16B equity value Double Upside: Infrastructure revenue: Billions annually from AWS hosting Equity appreciation: Ownership stake in OpenAI's growth This is rare - Amazon gets paid to host the workloads AND owns part of the company. 📈 Why Amazon vs. Microsoft: Microsoft Already Priced In: Market cap reflects OpenAI partnership expectations Azure revenue already includes OpenAI contribution Limited upside surprise potential Amazon is the Surprise Factor: Market underestimates AWS diversification opportunity OpenAI partnership not fully reflected in valuation Chip strategy under-appreciated by analysts Alexa integration potential ignored Risk Diversification: Rather than betting on Microsoft maintaining 100% of OpenAI infrastructure, Amazon represents the diversification trade that captures: 20-30% of OpenAI compute (realistic scenario) Equity upside if OpenAI IPOs Alexa transformation potential Broader AI chip validation 📊 Fundamental Context: Amazon's Core Business: AWS: ~$90B annual revenue, 30%+ margins (crown jewel) E-commerce: Dominant market position, improving margins Advertising: $45B+ business growing 20%+ annually Free cash flow: $50B+ annually Why Support Holds: At $210-220, Amazon trades at reasonable valuations considering: AWS growth acceleration from AI workloads Margin expansion as efficiency initiatives mature Advertising becoming major profit center OpenAI partnership optionality (free upside) Institutional Behavior: Major funds accumulate mega-cap tech at support levels $200-220 zone represents algorithmic buy programs Long-term investors view pullbacks as entry opportunities 🎯 Trade Structure: Entry Strategy: Aggressive: $220 area (current technical support) Conservative: $210 (psychological support, higher conviction) Scale in: Buy 50% at $220, 50% at $210 if it gets there Risk Management: Stop loss: Below $200 (invalidates support thesis) Position size: Appropriate for 5-10% portfolio allocation (mega-cap) Timeframe: 6-12 months for full thesis to develop Target Zones: TP1: $260 (20% gain, previous resistance) TP2: $280 (30% gain, reduce another third) TP3: $320+ (50% gain, major resistance zone) Catalyst Timeline: Q1 2025: Potential OpenAI infrastructure announcements Q2 2025: AWS earnings showing AI revenue growth H2 2025: OpenAI IPO window potentially opens Throughout: Alexa integration rumors/announcements 🧠 Why Most Will Miss This: Microsoft Tunnel Vision: Everyone watches MSFT as "the OpenAI stock" - Amazon's positioning is overlooked despite potentially better risk/reward. Mega-Cap Bias: At $2.4T market cap, traders assume Amazon "can't move much." But 30-50% gains on a $20-30 billion investment theme is massive absolute dollars. Infrastructure Complexity: Most investors don't understand cloud infrastructure economics. They miss that AWS hosting OpenAI is higher-margin than most of Amazon's businesses. Timing Fear: Buying at $220 after the stock has pulled back from $250+ feels uncomfortable. But that's precisely when technical support + fundamental catalysts create opportunity. 📅 Catalyst Timeline and Expectations: Near-Term (Q1 2025): OpenAI infrastructure announcements AWS re:Invent conference AI reveals Potential Amazon chip deployment news Mid-Term (Q2-Q3 2025): AWS earnings calls highlighting AI workload growth Alexa AI integration announcements OpenAI compute diversification details Long-Term (H2 2025+): OpenAI IPO window potentially opening Amazon equity stake value becomes visible Multi-year AWS infrastructure contracts disclosed ⚠️ Risk Factors: What Could Go Wrong: OpenAI Stays With Microsoft: If OpenAI decides not to diversify infrastructure significantly, Amazon loses the thesis catalyst. However, the $10B investment still provides equity exposure. Chip Strategy Fails: If OpenAI doesn't adopt Amazon's custom AI chips, the cost advantage and ecosystem lock-in don't materialize. Market-Wide Correction: Mega-cap tech could face broad selling pressure regardless of individual catalysts. The $200 support could break in a risk-off environment. OpenAI Stumbles: If OpenAI faces competitive pressure from other AI companies or regulatory issues, the infrastructure opportunity diminishes. Valuation Compression: At $2.4T market cap, Amazon needs significant catalysts to drive meaningful appreciation. If AI growth disappoints, multiple compression could occur. 🏆 The Professional Approach: They See The Setup: Technical support at $210-220 Fundamental catalyst (OpenAI partnership) Asymmetric risk/reward (5:1+) Multiple paths to upside (AWS, equity, Alexa) They Size Appropriately: Mega-cap reduces position risk Liquid market allows easy scaling 5-10% portfolio allocation reasonable They Think Long-Term: 6-12 month catalyst timeline Not a day trade or swing trade Allows thesis time to develop They Scale Out: Take profits at $260, $280, $320 Don't try to pick the perfect exit Lock gains progressively as targets hit 📌 Key Investment Thesis Points: ✅ $10B+ OpenAI investment positions Amazon as infrastructure diversification partner ✅ 20% compute shift could mean $2-4B annual AWS revenue (high margin) ✅ Custom AI chips provide cost advantage and ecosystem lock-in ✅ Equity stake in OpenAI provides IPO upside (potentially worth billions) ✅ Alexa integration could transform 500M+ device install base ✅ Technical support at $210-220 provides defined entry with tight risk ✅ 5:1+ risk/reward to structural targets with multiple catalyst paths 📊 Investment Summary: Why Amazon: Hidden OpenAI infrastructure play Better risk/reward than Microsoft Multiple upside paths (AWS, equity, Alexa) Entry at technical support Mega-cap liquidity and safety Why Now: Pullback to $210-220 support zone Before OpenAI infrastructure announcements Ahead of potential IPO window Market underpricing the opportunity Why $210-220: Technical support confluence Institutional accumulation zone Risk defined below $200 5:1+ reward/risk to targets ⚠️ Important Disclaimers: This analysis is for educational purposes and reflects a view on Amazon's strategic positioning with OpenAI. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell AMZN or any security. The OpenAI partnership details are based on publicly available information and reports. Actual infrastructure usage, revenue impact, and equity terms may differ significantly from estimates presented. Amazon is a mega-cap stock with many business lines. The OpenAI opportunity represents only one potential growth driver among many factors affecting valuation. Stock prices can decline significantly even when fundamental theses are correct. The $210-220 support could fail, and the OpenAI catalysts may take longer to materialize than expected or may not occur at all. Technology sector investments carry specific risks including regulatory changes, competitive dynamics, and rapid innovation cycles. Position sizing must account for volatility even in large-cap names. Always conduct independent research, consider your risk tolerance and investment timeframe, and consult with financial professionals. All investing involves risk of loss. ✨ Your Take: Are you viewing Amazon as an OpenAI infrastructure play? How do you evaluate the AWS/OpenAI opportunity versus the Microsoft Azure relationship? Share your perspective in the comments. 📜 Buy structure. Diversify exposure. Think long-term.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by RB_T
US30 at a Critical Decision Zone | Fake Breakout or Trend ContinHello and welcome, dear TradingView followers 🌱 I hope you’re all doing great and trading safely. Today, we’re going to analyze the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) together — one of the most important market indices that often leads overall market sentiment and risk appetite. 🔍 Chart Overview (4H Timeframe): As clearly shown on the chart, price has experienced a strong bullish move and then reacted to a major resistance zone, where we can see a fake breakout above the previous high (H). Currently, price is consolidating near the ascending dynamic support (yellow trendline), making this area a key decision zone. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: If price breaks below the ascending trendline and we get a confirmed 4H candle close under this dynamic support, a deeper correction becomes likely. In this case: The first target would be the highlighted support zone If that zone fails, price could continue toward lower demand levels This scenario is illustrated with the bearish arrows on the chart 👇 🟢 Bullish Scenario: If price respects the dynamic support and shows bullish confirmation (such as strong bullish candles or a break of short-term highs): We can expect a step-by-step bullish continuation The main target would be the previous high / resistance zone (H) A clean breakout above this level could open the door for further upside This path is marked with bullish arrows on the chart 📈 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal market perspective based on technical analysis and price action. I am not responsible for any trading decisions you make. Always use proper risk management and stop loss. 📊 Poll: What do you think will happen next with Dow Jones? 🔼 Bounce from dynamic support and continue higher 🔽 Break the trendline and move into a deeper correction Share your thoughts in the comments 👇 Looking forward to your opinions 🤝 🔖 Tags: #US30 #DowJones #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #SmartMoney #SupportResistance #Indices #MarketStructure #Forex #IndexTrading #4H
CAPITALCOM:US30
by forexcitypro_leemeenal
4
SILVER Strong Uptrend! Buy! Hello,Traders! SILVER is reacting from a higher-timeframe demand cluster aligned with the rising trendline. Sell-side liquidity has been swept, followed by strong bullish displacement, suggesting smart-money re-accumulation and a continuation toward the next liquidity pool above. Time Frame 4H. Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
1
Gold reacted calmly to the latest CPI and unemployment claims Gold reacted calmly to the latest inflation and unemployment data, with inflation easing and jobless claims coming in largely as expected. This macro backdrop provides supportive confluence for gold, reinforcing bullish pressure rather than triggering volatility. As a result, price action remains constructive, with momentum favoring continuation toward the 4370’s, provided the current structure holds. follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ak_capitalist
AUDUSD – 4H Short Setup | Head & Shoulders ReversalAUDUSD has formed a Head & Shoulders reversal after an impulsive upward move , and the neckline is already broken , confirming bearish structure. Price is now in a continuation phase rather than a reversal setup. There is clear bearish divergence between RSI and price on the 4H timeframe , showing momentum exhaustion. The Alligator mouth is open to the downside , supporting continuation selling and allowing for instant entry . 🔻 Entry: Sell at market ❌ Stop Loss: Above the last Higher Low (right shoulder structure) 📐 RR: Up to 1:3 📌 Confluence: • Head & Shoulders after uptrend • Neckline break confirmed • RSI bearish divergence (4H) • Alligator mouth open → bearish continuation • Structure-based SL placement ⚠️ Invalidation: 4H close above the last HL or back above the broken neckline invalidates the setup.
Short
by Intesarhaider
GBPJPY: Bullish Wave Almost Confirmed?! 🇬🇧🇯🇵 GBPJPY turned bullish after the news today. The price is currently breaking a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern. If a today's daily candle closes above its trend line, there will be a high chance to see more growth. Next resistance will be 209.5 then. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
EURUSD High-Impact Day – Liquidity First, Direction LaterEURUSD Analysis – Thursday, December 18 Welcome traders! We analyze the market every single day to stay aligned with clean structure, liquidity, and high-probability setups. Let’s dive into today’s EURUSD outlook 👇 🔍 Market Overview EURUSD remains bullish on the weekly, daily, and intraday timeframes in terms of overall structure. However, as highlighted in the previous analysis, price has already taken out buy-side liquidity with a large wick, which often signals distribution and the potential for a deeper corrective move. This puts EURUSD in a short-term corrective / retracement phase, despite the higher-timeframe bullish bias. ⚠️ Key context for today: We have high-impact CPI news for both EUR and USD. Expect increased volatility, liquidity grabs, and possible fake moves before direction becomes clear. 📌 Today’s Trading Scenarios 🔻 Scenario 1 – Buy-Side Liquidity → POI → Bearish Move (Preferred) Price may: .First sweep liquidity above, .This liquidity aligns with the previous daily high, .Tap into the POI, .And from there initiate a bearish retracement. This scenario fits well with the idea of post-liquidity distribution. 🔄 Scenario 2 – Sell-Side Liquidity → POI → Bearish Continuation Alternatively, price may: .First take out sell-side liquidity below, .This liquidity comes from the previous daily low, Then retrace back into the POI, .And from there continue the bearish correction. This scenario represents a deeper liquidity sweep before expansion. ⚠️ Risk & Execution Notes .High-impact CPI news can distort structure temporarily .The market is never 100% certain .Always wait for clear confirmation before entry .Apply strict risk management, especially during news sessions I’d love to hear your thoughts 👇 Do you expect a shallow pullback or a deeper corrective move? 📘 Educational Note: This analysis is for educational and illustrative purposes only. Always follow your own plan, confirm with your strategy, and manage risk carefully. Success in trading comes from discipline, patience, and consistency. 💪 🚀 Empowering traders through clarity, confidence & clean charts. Follow 👉 parisa_tl for more SMC setups and weekly insights 💙 #EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #LiquiditySweep #CPI #MarketStructure #POI #OrderBlock #PriceAction #FXTrading #TradingView #DailyAnalysis #RiskManagement
by parisa_tl
EURUSD soon the 1.2200 will hit easy (Mid-Term target)As observed on the chart, EURUSD has once again encountered resistance at the 1.1800 level, halting the recent advance. While a near-term pullback is anticipated, the correction is expected to be relatively contained, likely serving as a consolidation phase before the next upward impulse. A decisive breakout above this local resistance, confirmed by strong momentum and volume, would signal a continuation of the primary bullish structure, paving the way toward the mid-term target of 1.2200. The broader bullish outlook is supported by the overall monthly chart structure, which continues to display strength following the recent golden cross. From a technical standpoint, the path toward 1.2200 appears well-defined, though traders are advised to monitor price action around 1.1800 closely for confirmation of sustained buying pressure before assuming an uninterrupted advance. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Long
by MMBTtrader
Breaking: Electronics Firm Jabil Forecasts Upbeat Annual ResultsJabil (NYSE: NYSE:JBL ), forecast annual revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, as the electronic component maker looks to capitalize on artificial intelligence-driven demand for data centers, sending its shares up more than 5.8% in premarket trade. It expects full-year 2026 revenues of $32.4 billion, above analysts' average expectations of $31.52 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. On an adjusted basis, it expects annual profit per share of $11.55, versus expectations of $11.11. Rising investments in data center infrastructure, driven by strong demand for computing capacity to support AI technologies, have aided companies like Jabil. The company, which supplies electronic components to Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab, also surpassed Street expectations for its first-quarter results. First-quarter revenue rose 18.74% to $8.30 billion, surpassing estimates of $8.09 billion, as per data compiled by LSEG. Adjusted profit per share for the quarter ended November 30 was $2.85, while analysts expected $2.70. Technical Outlook As of the time of writing, NYSE:JBL stock is up 0.42% in Thursday's premarket trading. if the stock should break the $230 resistant zone a bullish surge to $300 is feasible amidst RSI at 50 giving the stock more room to capitalise on the dip. According to 9 analysts, the average rating for JBL stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price target is $229.56, which is an increase of 6.13% from the latest price.
NYSE:JBLLong
by DEXWireNews
XAUUSD Trade Plans Mapped Toward 4,400Gold continues to trade from a position of strength following last week’s decisive liquidity-driven expansion above the December previous high (~4,265). That level had capped price throughout early December and represented a clear sell-side liquidity pool. The impulsive break through this area was structurally significant, marking a shift from balance into expansion. Price did not stall or wick heavily through the level, confirming acceptance rather than a false breakout. On the daily and 4H structure, gold remains firmly within a broader bullish trend. The recent consolidation near highs has not produced any meaningful lower highs or structural damage. Instead, price is digesting gains above prior resistance, a common characteristic of strong trending markets. Fundamentally, gold continues to benefit from: • Persistent geopolitical risk premium • Medium-term expectations of monetary easing as U.S. growth slows • Ongoing central bank and institutional demand for hard assets These factors reinforce the view that pullbacks are corrective in nature unless key higher-timeframe levels are decisively lost. Technical Breakdown • The December previous high (~4,265) has flipped from resistance into a confirmed support zone following clean acceptance. • The breakout from the multi-week consolidation box triggered strong bullish displacement on the 4H, indicating real participation rather than short covering. • Price is currently consolidating between ~4,320–4,335, forming a tight intraday balance just below the December high. • This consolidation is occurring above broken resistance and within an ascending structure, which is technically constructive. • Above price, the December high (~4,353) remains the primary upside liquidity pool and short-term objective. • Beyond that, the psychological 4,400 level represents higher-timeframe resistance and a likely volatility expansion zone. • Below price, 4,300–4,265 is the first meaningful demand area. A deeper pullback would expose the weekly equilibrium region near ~4,262 as the major structural invalidation. The impulsive rally from the December breakout level shows strong bullish displacement and follow-through, suggesting sustained institutional participation. The current pause is orderly and controlled, with no signs of aggressive distribution or heavy supply entering the market. Volatility compression near highs often precedes directional continuation rather than reversal, especially when structure remains intact. 🔹 Plan A – Continuation Higher (Preferred) As long as price holds above the 4,300–4,265 support zone, the higher-timeframe bullish bias remains intact. • Sustained acceptance above the 4,320–4,335 balance zone opens a push into the December high (~4,353). • A clean break and hold above December highs would likely trigger upside expansion toward 4,370–4,380 initially. • If momentum persists, extension toward the psychological 4,400 level becomes likely as buy-side liquidity is targeted. This scenario assumes the recent consolidation is a pause within trend rather than distribution. 🔹 Plan B – Deeper Pullback Before Continuation If price fails to hold the current balance zone and closes below 4,300, a deeper retracement becomes probable. • First downside target: 4,265 (December previous high / breakout retest). • Extended corrective target: ~4,262 (weekly equilibrium / 50% retracement). This would still be considered a corrective move unless price decisively loses the 4,262 region, which would signal a potential shift in higher-timeframe structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WarroomXYZ
Global Soft Commodity Trading: Dynamics and StrategiesUnderstanding the Global Soft Commodity Market Soft commodity markets operate on a global scale, with production concentrated in specific regions and consumption spread worldwide. For example, coffee production is dominated by Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia, while cocoa largely comes from West African nations such as Ivory Coast and Ghana. Sugar production is led by Brazil and India, whereas wheat and corn are heavily produced in the United States, Russia, and parts of Europe. This geographical imbalance between producers and consumers makes international trade essential. Prices are generally discovered on major commodity exchanges such as the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Euronext. These exchanges provide standardized futures and options contracts that allow producers, consumers, traders, and investors to hedge risk or speculate on price movements. Key Drivers of Soft Commodity Prices Soft commodity prices are influenced by a wide range of interconnected factors: Weather and Climate Conditions Weather is the single most important factor affecting soft commodities. Droughts, floods, cyclones, frost, and changing rainfall patterns can significantly impact crop yields. Climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña often cause global supply disruptions, leading to sharp price volatility. Supply and Demand Dynamics Changes in population, income levels, dietary habits, and industrial usage directly affect demand. For instance, rising coffee consumption in Asia or increased ethanol production boosting corn demand can alter global price trends. Government Policies and Trade Regulations Export bans, import duties, subsidies, and minimum support prices play a crucial role, especially in emerging economies. Policies in major producing countries like India, Brazil, or the United States can influence global supply availability and price stability. Currency Movements Since most soft commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, fluctuations in currency exchange rates impact international trade. A weaker dollar generally supports higher commodity prices, while a stronger dollar can suppress demand. Logistics and Geopolitical Factors Transportation costs, port congestion, trade routes, and geopolitical tensions can disrupt supply chains. Conflicts, sanctions, or shipping bottlenecks often translate into sudden price spikes. Market Participants in Soft Commodity Trading The global soft commodity market includes diverse participants, each with different objectives: Producers and Farmers use futures contracts to hedge against adverse price movements and protect their income. Processors and End Users such as food manufacturers and textile companies hedge to stabilize input costs. Traders and Merchants act as intermediaries, managing storage, transportation, and arbitrage opportunities. Speculators and Investors, including hedge funds and institutional investors, aim to profit from price movements and market trends. Retail Traders increasingly participate through online platforms offering commodity derivatives and ETFs. Trading Instruments and Strategies Soft commodities can be traded through several financial instruments: Futures Contracts are the most common, providing standardized exposure to commodity prices. Options allow traders to manage risk with limited downside. ETFs and ETNs offer indirect exposure for investors who do not wish to trade futures directly. Spot and Physical Trading is mainly used by large commercial participants. Successful soft commodity trading often relies on a blend of strategies: Fundamental Analysis, focusing on crop reports, weather forecasts, acreage data, and inventory levels. Technical Analysis, using price charts, trends, support-resistance levels, and momentum indicators. Seasonal Trading, which takes advantage of recurring patterns related to planting and harvesting cycles. Spread Trading, involving the price difference between related commodities or different contract months. Risks and Volatility in Soft Commodity Markets Soft commodities are known for high volatility due to their dependence on uncontrollable natural factors. Sudden weather changes or policy announcements can cause rapid price movements. Additionally, leverage in futures trading can amplify both profits and losses. Effective risk management through position sizing, stop-loss strategies, and diversification is essential for long-term success. Another key risk is market uncertainty due to climate change, which has increased the frequency of extreme weather events. This has made price forecasting more challenging, increasing both risk and opportunity for traders. Role of Emerging Markets and Sustainability Emerging markets play a growing role in global soft commodity trading, both as producers and consumers. Rising incomes in Asia and Africa are driving demand for food commodities, while technological advancements are improving agricultural productivity. Sustainability and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations are also reshaping the market. Ethical sourcing, carbon footprints, and sustainable farming practices increasingly influence investment decisions and trade flows. Certifications such as Fair Trade and organic labeling are becoming important price differentiators in global markets. Future Outlook of Global Soft Commodity Trading The future of global soft commodity trading is expected to be shaped by several long-term trends: climate variability, population growth, technological innovation in agriculture, and digitalization of trading platforms. Data analytics, satellite imagery, and AI-driven weather models are enhancing market transparency and decision-making. At the same time, increased financial participation is likely to keep volatility elevated, offering both risks and opportunities. Traders who can combine strong fundamental understanding with disciplined technical execution will be better positioned to navigate these evolving markets. Conclusion Global soft commodity trading is a dynamic and multifaceted market that reflects the intersection of nature, economics, and finance. From coffee and cocoa to grains and sugar, these commodities are essential to everyday life and global trade. While the market carries significant risks due to volatility and uncertainty, it also offers substantial opportunities for informed and disciplined traders. A deep understanding of global supply chains, weather patterns, policy impacts, and market behavior is essential for success in the ever-evolving world of soft commodity trading.
TVC:VIXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Someone DM’d me asking why I don’t post many trades at CMP, Someone DM’d me asking why I don’t post many trades at CMP, only limit orders, and why I’m mainly focused on a BTC short that I’ve been holding since 118k. I’m guessing many of you have the same question, so here’s my reasoning. 1. We are in a bear market. There’s honestly not much to do right now except wait. “So if we’re in a bear market, why aren’t you always shorting?” I am. I’ve been holding a BTC short for the past four months. I warned you countless times that this was the top and not to expect much more upside. Right now, I’m waiting for a much better opportunity, one that I’m best at, buying bottoms. 2. I believe we’re closer to the end of the downside than the beginning. Most people only understand what’s happening after it has already played out. The same thing happens in bull markets, and it’s happening again now. This bear market didn’t just start. It’s been here for months, as I’ve been saying. The real bear phase began around 99k, which I’ve mentioned many times. As I said in my last BTC big update, I’m watching 72k as a strong support. That’s where I plan to add spot positions. We need to see a bounce there. If we don’t, then we likely enter an accumulation zone between 50k and 72k, and I think we’ll stay in that range for a long time before the next bull run begins. I’m basically waiting for two things, which I’ve always shared here: BTC reclaiming 99k to add more short positions A potential bottom around 72k As for altcoins, they’re in a very bad state right now. Things can change, but until they do, don’t try to be a hero and buy blindly. Some alts look cheap, but there’s still a good chance we see another 30% drop before they form a proper bottom. The bottom line is simple: protect your liquidity and wait for better opportunities. If you really feel the need to buy something now, reduce your position size in case you’re wrong. And of course, I’ll be here to share opportunities when they actually show up. Merry Christmas in advance to those who still have money left to celebrate 🎄
Long
by CryptoSkullSignal