CADCHF: 71% of Retail Traders Are LONG CADCHF is entering my bearish watchlist for the coming sessions.
My current thesis is based on the possibility of a bearish retracement from a premium area, with price action ultimately determining whether the setup becomes executable.
Technical Context
CADCHF has experienced a strong bullish expansion from the 0.5650–0.5670 demand area, pushing the market back toward its recent highs.
Price is now trading around 0.5797, directly below an important premium/supply area located approximately between:
0.5795 – 0.5820
This is where I become interested in looking for signs of distribution and potential bearish displacement.
I want the market to confirm that sellers are actually taking control.
COT Positioning :
CAD Remains Extremely Weak
The latest COT data provides an interesting relative divergence between the two currencies.
For the Canadian Dollar, Non-Commercial positioning currently stands at:
13,514 Long
192,609 Short
This produces a net speculative position of approximately:
-179,095 contracts
The Swiss Franc is also net short:
11,270 Long
44,092 Short
Net positioning is approximately:
-32,822 contracts
Therefore, both currencies are net short from a speculative positioning perspective, but the magnitude is significantly different.
The key for me is the relative positioning differential.
Speculators remain substantially more bearish on CAD than CHF, which creates a macro positioning environment that remains supportive of a bearish CADCHF thesis.
I don't use COT data as an entry signal.
I use it to understand where larger speculative positioning is concentrated and whether it supports or contradicts my technical bias.
Seasonality :
Historically, CAD performance during August has been negative across most major lookback periods:
20Y: -0.0018
15Y: -0.0076
10Y: -0.0017
5Y: -0.0004
2Y: +0.0058
Retail Sentiment:
71% LONG CADCHF
29% SHORT CADCHF
That means retail positioning is currently more than 2:1 skewed toward the long side.
I interpret retail positioning from a contrarian perspective, particularly when extreme positioning develops near an important technical location.
My Trading Scenario
My primary area of interest remains:
0.5795 – 0.5820
I do not want to short this area blindly.
Ideally, I want to see the market provide a sequence such as:
Liquidity sweep → rejection → bearish displacement → structural shift → retest
A convincing break below the 0.5750–0.5737 region would significantly strengthen the bearish scenario.
From there, my primary downside objective would be around:
0.5705.
If bearish momentum persists and the market starts accepting below that region, the next major area becomes:
0.5670 – 0.5650. EUR/USD: bullish reversal or just another bull trap?After bouncing from the major demand zone around 1.1330–1.1360, EUR/USD has staged an impressive recovery. However, I still view this move as a corrective rally within a broader bearish trend, rather than the beginning of a sustainable bullish reversal.
From a Daily perspective, market structure remains bearish, with a clear sequence of lower highs still intact.
The 1.1540–1.1565 region is, in my opinion, the key level to watch over the coming sessions. This zone combines a previous support turned resistance, a Daily/H4 supply area, and the long-term descending trendline that has capped price since the beginning of the year. If sellers are going to regain control, this is where I expect them to step in.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report also provides valuable context. Large Speculators in Euro futures have started reducing their short exposure while gradually increasing long positions. This suggests that bearish momentum is fading in the short term, supporting the current rebound. However, I don't believe this alone is enough to confirm a major trend reversal.
On the other hand, the U.S. Dollar Index COT continues to support a stronger dollar. Institutional traders remain heavily positioned on the long side of the Dollar Index, which historically creates headwinds for a sustained EUR/USD rally.
Retail sentiment tells a similar story. Around 56% of traders are currently short EUR/USD, creating a modest contrarian bullish signal. While this isn't an extreme reading, it does support the possibility of price extending higher before reaching a meaningful resistance zone.
Seasonality also aligns with this view. Historically, August has often produced a stronger second half of the month in recent years, which could provide enough momentum for EUR/USD to test higher levels before the broader trend resumes.
For now, my trading plan remains straightforward.
I'm not interested in selling simply because price reaches resistance. Instead, I'll wait for confirmation through price action: a liquidity sweep above recent highs, a bearish shift in lower-timeframe market structure, and ideally a retest of a breaker or Fair Value Gap before considering any short positions.
If those conditions develop around 1.1540–1.1565, I'll be looking for high-probability short opportunities in line with the higher-timeframe trend.
CHFJPY Has Reached a Major HTF Demand ZoneAfter several weeks of persistent selling pressure, CHFJPY has finally reached a high-timeframe demand zone that I have been monitoring for quite some time.
The decline has been aggressive, breaking below the July range and sweeping previous swing lows.
Technical Structure
From a purely technical perspective, the market is still trading within a well-defined bearish structure.
Lower highs continue to hold.
Price has broken the previous consolidation.
The recent impulsive candle has created a significant imbalance.
We are now trading directly inside a strong weekly/Daily demand area.
Market Positioning
Approximately 60% of retail traders are currently short CHFJPY.
Retail traders tend to increase exposure after large impulsive moves, which often leaves the market vulnerable to corrective rallies before the dominant trend resumes.
COT Report
Large speculators remain heavily net short CHF, confirming medium-term weakness in the Swiss Franc.
Speculators are still net short JPY as well, but positioning has started to improve compared to previous weeks, suggesting that bearish pressure on the Yen may be stabilising.
This combination still supports the broader bearish bias on CHFJPY, although it also increases the probability of a corrective retracement after such an extended decline.
Seasonality
August tends to be relatively neutral to slightly weak for the Swiss Franc.
August has often been supportive for the Japanese Yen.
This means that seasonality does not currently favour a sustained bullish reversal on CHFJPY.
However, seasonality is rarely a timing tool. It simply reinforces the idea that any recovery should initially be treated as a corrective move until proven otherwise.
My Trading Plan
Rather than trying to predict the exact bottom, I prefer to let price confirm its intentions.
My ideal scenario would be:
✅ Price holds inside the current demand.
✅ Liquidity below the lows is fully absorbed.
✅ A lower timeframe accumulation forms.
If buyers regain control, I will be watching for a retracement towards the first FVG area around 199.00, followed by 200.50–201.20 supply zones.
Those zones would become my preferred areas to evaluate fresh short opportunities in line with the higher-timeframe trend. GBPJPY | Outlook After the BoJ DecisionThe Bank of Japan meeting injected significant volatility into the yen, but when I zoom out, I still see a market that remains structurally bullish on GBPJPY.
On the weekly timeframe, price swept the buy-side liquidity above the previous highs before selling off aggressively. At this stage, I view that move as a liquidity grab rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
📈 Retail Sentiment
Around 74% of retail traders are currently short GBPJPY. Historically, when positioning becomes this one-sided, the market often moves in the opposite direction, making this a bullish contrarian signal.
📑 Commitment of Traders (COT)
The latest COT report also supports my view. Large Speculators continue to increase their bearish exposure on the Japanese yen, while the British pound remains relatively well-positioned despite some recent profit-taking. Overall, institutional positioning still favors GBP strength against JPY.
📅 Seasonality
Seasonality is the only factor urging caution. Historically, August has been one of the weakest months for GBPJPY over the 15- and 20-year averages. While I don't consider this enough to justify a bearish outlook, it does encourage me to be patient before committing to new long positions.
🎯 My Trading Plan
The key area I'm watching is the 214.30–215.80 demand zone.
If price retraces into this region and confirms my execution model, I'll be looking for fresh long opportunities.
As long as this demand area holds, my primary objective remains a move back toward the recent highs, with a potential extension into the 219.50–220.00 region.
However, if price closes decisively below the demand zone, my bullish thesis would be invalidated, opening the door for a deeper correction toward 212.20, the next major structural support.
Short
AUDJPY: I'm Waiting to Buy the PullbackWhile retail traders continue to sell into strength, AUDJPY keeps printing higher highs and higher lows, confirming that the broader bullish structure remains intact.
After analysing price action, COT data, seasonality and retail positioning, I still favour buying pullbacks rather than attempting to pick a top.
Market Structure
The daily trend remains firmly bullish.
Price has respected every significant higher low since the beginning of July and is now testing a major resistance zone between 114.42 and 114.92, an area that previously acted as supply.
This is not necessarily a level to sell.
Instead, it is a level where I expect the market to decide whether to continue immediately or offer a healthier pullback before the next expansion.
As long as price remains above the previous breakout structure, the bullish bias remains unchanged.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
The latest COT report provides an interesting backdrop.
Australian Dollar
Commercial traders have continued increasing their long exposure while large speculators remain net short.
Historically, commercial positioning often precedes medium-term directional moves, suggesting underlying accumulation in AUD.
Japanese Yen
Commercials remain net long JPY while speculators are still heavily short.
Although this could eventually support Yen strength, COT is a slow-moving indicator and rarely provides precise timing. At the moment, price action continues to dominate.
Seasonality
Seasonality also supports the current outlook.
Historically:
AUD tends to strengthen into late July and early August.
JPY generally underperforms during the same period.
This creates a favourable seasonal environment for AUDJPY continuation higher.
Retail Sentiment
83% of traders are short
17% are long
Retail continues trying to fade the trend.
From a contrarian perspective, this is typically supportive of further upside as long as price structure remains bullish.
Trading Plan
Rather than buying directly into resistance, I prefer allowing the market to retrace first.
My primary area of interest sits around 113.50, where previous resistance could become new support.
This zone also aligns with the recent breakout structure and offers a significantly better risk-to-reward opportunity.
If buyers regain control from that area, I will be looking for confirmation using my intraday execution model before targeting a continuation above 115.00. USDJPY: Everyone Is Calling The Top…After reviewing the latest price action alongside the COT Report, seasonality and retail positioning, my higher-timeframe bias remains constructive in the short term.
From a technical perspective, USDJPY continues to print a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the Daily timeframe. Price is respecting the ascending channel and continues to trade above the previous breakout structure, confirming that buyers are still in control.
That said, the pair is now trading deep inside a premium pricing zone while approaching the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. This is typically not an area where I look to initiate new long positions. Instead, I begin monitoring for signs of exhaustion and potential distribution.
The Daily Breaker located around the 160.00–160.50 area remains, in my opinion, the most attractive objective should the market transition into a corrective phase.
COT Analysis
The Commitment of Traders data continues to support the broader bullish trend.
Large Speculators remain net long the US Dollar, while positioning in the Japanese Yen is still heavily net short, confirming that institutional money continues to favour USD strength over JPY.
Seasonality
Seasonality introduces an important note of caution.
Historically, the end of July and the beginning of August have produced weaker performance for USDJPY across multiple historical datasets.
Retail Sentiment
Retail positioning currently shows approximately 80% of traders holding short positions.
From a contrarian perspective, this continues to favour additional upside before any larger reversal occurs.
My Trading Plan
My preferred scenario is for price to engineer one final liquidity sweep above the recent highs around 164.20–165.00, trapping additional breakout buyers and forcing late short sellers out of the market. NZD/USD: Smart Money Is Setting a Trap Before the Next Big MoveAfter analyzing the latest COT Report, retail sentiment, seasonality, and current price action, I believe NZD/USD remains structurally bearish, despite the possibility of a short-term recovery.
From a macro perspective, the Commitment of Traders report continues to show that large speculators hold a significant net short position on the New Zealand Dollar. Although part of these shorts has been covered during the latest reporting week, positioning is still heavily skewed to the downside, suggesting institutions have not yet abandoned their bearish bias.
On the other side of the equation, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains supported by institutional positioning. While speculative long exposure has stabilized, there is still no evidence of aggressive USD liquidation that would justify a sustained bullish reversal on NZD/USD.
Retail positioning adds another layer of confirmation. Approximately 66% of retail traders are currently long NZD/USD, a sentiment profile that I typically interpret as a contrarian signal. When the majority of retail participants attempt to buy into weakness, I prefer to remain cautious and look for opportunities aligned with institutional flow.
Seasonality, however, introduces an interesting element. Historically, the second half of July has often produced positive returns for NZD/USD. This suggests that the pair could experience a temporary relief rally before the broader bearish trend resumes.
My primary area of interest remains the 0.5890–0.5940 supply zone, where multiple institutional confluences align:
Higher-timeframe Supply
Bearish Breaker
Fair Value Gap
My Trading Plan
📌 Bullish scenario:
A sustained acceptance above 0.5940 would invalidate my bearish outlook and open the door toward the psychological 0.6000–0.6060 area.
📌 Bearish scenario:
A corrective rally into the supply zone followed by institutional rejection would provide the highest-probability setup, targeting first the recent swing lows and potentially the larger demand zone around 0.5620–0.5580. EUR/USD: One Final Rally Before the Next Sell-Off?EUR/USD remains within a predominantly bearish daily structure.
Following the strong decline from the April highs, the pair is currently consolidating and developing a corrective structure between approximately 1.1360 and 1.1490.
At the current price of around 1.1410, however, I am not interested in looking for immediate short positions. EUR/USD is still trading inside a relevant demand zone between 1.1360 and 1.1425, making the risk-to-reward profile of selling at current levels relatively unattractive.
In my view, the recovery from the June lows still represents a correction against the broader bearish trend rather than the beginning of a confirmed bullish reversal.
For this reason, I am considering the possibility of one final move higher before bearish momentum returns.
Technical structure
The first upside objective is located at 1.1482, where liquidity is resting above the recent short-term highs.
If buyers manage to extend the recovery, the most relevant area is between 1.1540 and 1.1555. This zone combines the upper boundary of the corrective bullish structure with the main descending trendline.
This is where I would start looking for bearish confirmation on the H1 or H4 timeframe. I have no interest in anticipating an entry without first seeing a clear reaction and a shift in the lower-timeframe structure.
Retail sentiment
Retail sentiment currently shows that 63% of traders are long EUR/USD, while only 37% are positioned short.
The average entry price of long positions is approximately 1.1533, meaning that a significant proportion of retail buyers are currently holding losing positions.
COT positioning
The COT report dated July 14 shows the following non-commercial positioning on the euro:
• Long positions: 230,307
• Short positions: 242,912
• Net position: –12,605 contracts
Speculative positioning therefore remains slightly bearish on the euro.
This suggests that institutional sentiment towards the euro has marginally improved. It could help support a short-term corrective rally, but it is not yet strong enough to confirm a broader bullish reversal.
On the US Dollar Index, non-commercial traders maintain a net-long position of approximately 13,173 contracts. The broader positioning comparison therefore remains moderately supportive of the US dollar.
Seasonality
Seasonality is the main factor discouraging me from selling EUR/USD immediately.
July has historically generated positive average returns across every period included in the data:
• 20-year average: +0.25%
• 15-year average: +0.70%
• 10-year average: +0.23%
• 5-year average: +1.43%
• 2-year average: +2.87%
The seasonal curves also point towards additional strength during the final part of July.
This conflicts with the broader bearish technical structure and the retail positioning. However, rather than invalidating the bearish scenario, it could support an initial rally into resistance before the broader downtrend resumes.
The scenario I am currently monitoring is:
1. EUR/USD holds the 1.1360–1.1380 demand zone.
2. Price recovers towards 1.1465–1.1495.
3. The rally potentially extends into 1.1540–1.1555.
4. Bearish confirmation develops on H1 or H4.
5. Price returns towards 1.1380 and 1.1330.
6. A confirmed breakdown opens the way towards 1.1260–1.1280.
Invalidation
A daily close above 1.1555 would weaken my bearish thesis.
A confirmed breakout and acceptance above 1.1620 would invalidate the current scenario more decisively, opening the way towards 1.1675–1.1690.
Crude Oil (WTI) | Buyers Are Defending a Critical Monthly ZoneAfter several months of selling pressure, WTI Crude Oil has finally reached an area where higher time frame buyers are beginning to react. While many traders remain focused on the recent bearish momentum, I believe the current technical picture deserves much closer attention.
On the monthly chart, price is testing a confluence of institutional factors:
Major Monthly Demand Zone
Unfilled Monthly Gap
Rising long-term trendline support
Previous breakout area now acting as support
This combination creates a high-interest zone where a medium-term reversal could develop.
Technical Perspective
Although the broader trend remains corrective, I don't see an attractive location to initiate fresh shorts after such an extended decline.
Instead, I'm watching whether buyers can continue defending the 68–74 USD area.
The first key obstacle sits around 84–85 USD.
A confirmed monthly close above this level would significantly improve the bullish structure and could open the path toward:
92 USD
100 USD
105 USD
COT Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report suggests a relatively neutral positioning.
Non-Commercial traders have reduced both long and short exposure, while Commercial participants remain net short, which is fairly typical for the crude oil market.
Open Interest has declined by more than 30,000 contracts, indicating that recent price action has been driven more by position liquidation than aggressive institutional accumulation.
In my opinion, the COT data is not yet confirming a strong bullish trend, but it also doesn't support the continuation of an aggressive bearish move.
Seasonality
Seasonality provides another interesting piece of the puzzle.
Historically, July has not been one of the strongest months for crude oil, with most long-term datasets showing either flat or slightly negative average performance.
This suggests that even if my long-term bullish thesis remains valid, price could still experience short-term volatility or another retracement before a larger directional move develops.
My Trading Plan
At this stage I'm monitoring two possible scenarios.
Scenario 1 (Preferred)
Price extends higher into the 84–85 USD resistance before retracing back toward 74–76 USD, where I would look for fresh buying opportunities if price confirms institutional demand.
Scenario 2
If buyers manage to reclaim and close decisively above 84–85 USD, I will assume that the correction has already ended and begin looking for continuation opportunities toward the next higher-time-frame liquidity targets.
Key Levels
🟢 Support
68–70 USD
72–74 USD
🔴 Resistance
84–85 USD
92 USD
100 USD
105 USD
Long
CHFJPY: Why I'm Still WaitingOver the past few weeks I've been monitoring CHFJPY closely, and the more confluences I gather, the more interested I become in this market. While price hasn't triggered my entry yet, I believe the current structure deserves attention.
From a technical perspective, CHFJPY is developing an ascending structure after rejecting the June lows. Price is compressing beneath a higher-timeframe supply zone while respecting weekly demand, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.
However, I'm not interested in buying at current prices.
The area I'm watching is the liquidity resting below the most recent swing low. A sweep into that liquidity would provide a much cleaner location for institutions to accumulate before any meaningful continuation higher.
If that liquidity is taken and the lower timeframe confirms with a bullish shift in market structure, I'll start looking for long opportunities targeting the daily supply around 201.90–202.60.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
The latest positioning continues to support the bullish case.
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Speculators remain net short overall, but recent data shows increasing long exposure together with short covering.
This often represents the early stages of positioning before a larger directional move.
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Large speculators are still heavily net short.
Although open interest contracted during the latest report, speculative positioning continues to reflect structural weakness in the Yen.
Seasonality
Seasonality also aligns with my current thesis.
Historically, the Swiss Franc tends to strengthen during the second half of July, while the Japanese Yen has shown relatively weaker historical performance over the same period.
Retail Sentiment
Retail traders remain heavily positioned against this market.
Current sentiment shows approximately 78% of traders are short CHFJPY.
I generally treat extreme retail positioning as a contrarian indicator. When combined with technical confluence and COT data, it adds another layer supporting a potential bullish continuation.
My Trading Plan
I'm not trying to predict the next move.
I'm waiting for the market to offer confirmation.
My ideal scenario is:
Liquidity sweep below the recent swing low.
Bullish market structure shift on the lower timeframe.
Long entry only after confirmation.
Targets into the daily supply around 201.90–202.60. CADJPY: Why I'm BullishAfter weeks of trading inside a well-defined descending channel, CADJPY has finally broken out, confirming a significant shift in market structure. Although price is currently testing a major daily supply zone, I believe the broader picture still favors the bulls.
Technical Outlook
The breakout above the descending channel was impulsive, showing strong buying pressure and a clear change in momentum. Since then, price has continued printing higher highs and higher lows, confirming a bullish market structure.
However, chasing price at current levels doesn't offer an attractive risk-to-reward ratio.
The daily supply zone overhead is likely to attract profit-taking, making a short-term pullback the most probable scenario before another leg higher.
The area I'm watching closely is the Daily Fair Value Gap around 114.65, which aligns with previous imbalance and could provide an ideal reload zone for institutional buyers.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
The latest COT report continues to support the bullish narrative.
Canadian Dollar
Commercial participants have been increasing their long exposure while overall open interest has expanded. Although speculative positioning remains net short, recent flows suggest that institutional demand for the Canadian Dollar is gradually improving.
Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen continues to show weakness.
Large speculative positioning remains heavily biased against the currency, while open interest has declined, indicating a lack of fresh buying conviction.
Retail Sentiment
Retail positioning provides another important confirmation.
Currently:
69% of retail traders are short
31% are long
Retail traders continue attempting to fade the rally.
Historically, this type of positioning is often interpreted as a contrarian signal, increasing the probability that the current trend continues higher.
Seasonality
Seasonality also aligns with the bullish outlook.
Historically:
The Canadian Dollar tends to strengthen during July.
The Japanese Yen tends to underperform during the same period.
With both currencies showing seasonal divergence, historical flows continue supporting upside potential for CADJPY.
My Trading Plan
I'm not interested in buying into resistance.
Instead, I'll patiently wait for price to retrace into the Daily Fair Value Gap around 114.60–114.70.
If buyers defend that imbalance and market structure remains intact, I'll look for confirmation on the lower timeframes before entering long.
As long as the bullish structure remains valid, I believe new highs remain the higher probability outcome.
GBP/AUD: I'm Still Bullish While 83% of Retail Traders Are ShortAfter reviewing the technical structure, sentiment, seasonality and institutional positioning, I continue to maintain a bullish outlook on GBP/AUD over the coming weeks.
From a technical perspective, the market has completely changed character. After establishing a significant low around 1.8550, price broke the long-term descending trendline and started printing a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, confirming that buyers are back in control.
The pair is now approaching a key FVG area between 1.9360 and 1.9415, which could temporarily slow the current rally. However, I don't necessarily see this as the end of the move. Instead, I believe this zone could trigger a healthy pullback before another continuation higher.
The area I will be closely monitoring is 1.9000–1.9050. If buyers step back in there, I will look for fresh bullish confirmations targeting the higher daily supply around 1.9525–1.9585.
Retail Sentiment
83% of traders are short GBP/AUD
Only 17% are long
Average short price sits around 1.9111
With price already trading above most retail entries, many short positions are underwater. A continuation higher could force additional short covering, providing further fuel for the uptrend.
When the vast majority of retail traders are positioned on one side of the market, I always pay close attention.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
Institutional positioning continues to support my bias.
The latest COT report shows speculative traders remain structurally bearish on the Australian Dollar, while positioning on the British Pound has improved with an increase in long exposure and a reduction in short positions.
This suggests institutional flows continue to favour GBP strength relative to AUD.
Seasonality
Seasonality also aligns with the bullish scenario.
Historically, July tends to be a positive month for the British Pound, while the Australian Dollar usually posts only modest gains.
Relative strength therefore still favours GBP, reinforcing the current technical structure.
My Trading Plan
I'm waiting for one of two scenarios:
✅ A pullback into 1.9000–1.9050 followed by bullish confirmation.
or
✅ A clean breakout above 1.9400, followed by a successful retest. 
Short
NZD/USD Is Building Something Big... Is 0.6000 the Next Target?After weeks of sustained selling pressure, NZD/USD is finally showing the first signs of a potential trend reversal. Price has reacted precisely from a higher-timeframe demand zone and is now trading inside a developing bullish structure, supported by improving momentum and historically favorable seasonality.
Technical Outlook
From a price action perspective, the market has defended the daily demand area around 0.5620–0.5710, producing a sequence of higher lows and breaking the short-term bearish trendline.
The recent impulse confirms that buyers are gradually regaining control, but I am not interested in chasing price at current levels. Instead, I will be looking for a healthy pullback into support before considering any long exposure.
The first objective remains the 0.5860 resistance, while the key supply zone sits between 0.5900 and 0.6000. This area represents the most significant obstacle before a larger bullish continuation can develop.
Seasonality
Seasonality strongly supports the bullish scenario.
Across the last 20, 15, 10, 5 and even 2 years, July has consistently delivered positive average performance for NZD/USD.
Historically, the second half of July tends to produce the strongest gains, adding another layer of confluence to the current technical structure.
Retail Sentiment
Retail positioning is currently almost perfectly balanced, with approximately 50% long and 50% short.
This provides no meaningful contrarian signal and suggests that positioning is relatively neutral.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
This is where I remain cautious.
Institutional positioning on the New Zealand Dollar is still heavily net short, indicating that the longer-term bearish narrative has not yet disappeared.
At the same time, positioning on the US Dollar Index remains net long, although recent data shows that bullish USD exposure is beginning to soften.
In my opinion, this combination explains the current recovery in NZD/USD while also warning that the move may still be corrective until larger resistance levels are broken.
My Trading Plan
Rather than buying the breakout, I prefer waiting for price to retrace into support and produce bullish confirmation.
Bullish scenario
Buy pullbacks into 0.5710–0.5730
Targets:
0.5860
0.5900
0.6000
Bearish scenario
A daily rejection from the supply zone followed by a break below 0.5680 would invalidate my bullish short-term view and increase the probability of another test of the June lows. GBP/USD | 72% of Traders Are ShortGBPUSD continues to recover after breaking above the descending channel, but price is now approaching a significant higher-timeframe supply area.
Although many traders are already looking for short opportunities, I believe the current market structure deserves a more patient approach.
Market Structure
The daily chart has shifted from a clear bearish trend into a short-term bullish correction.
What I'm currently seeing:
• Break of the descending channel.
• Series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
• Strong bullish momentum.
• Price approaching a major Daily supply zone around 1.3410–1.3460.
Sentiment
Retail positioning remains heavily bearish.
• 72% of traders are currently short GBPUSD.
• Only 28% are long.
Historically, extreme retail positioning often acts as a contrarian signal.
If buyers continue pushing higher, a short squeeze toward the next liquidity area would not surprise me.
COT Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report still shows speculative traders net short on the British Pound.
However, the pace of bearish positioning is slowing as some short exposure is being reduced.
This doesn't confirm a bullish trend yet, but it does suggest that downside momentum is becoming less aggressive.
Seasonality
Seasonality also supports a constructive outlook.
Historically, July has been one of the strongest months for GBPUSD across multiple historical samples.
While seasonality should never be traded alone, it currently aligns with the improving technical structure.
My Plan
I'm watching two possible scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers manage to break above the current supply zone, I expect price to target higher liquidity around 1.3500–1.3550 before any meaningful reversal develops.
Bearish Scenario
If price shows clear rejection inside the supply area, I'll wait for bearish confirmation before considering short positions. EURUSD Ready To Explode? Institutions Are AccumulatingAfter several weeks of selling pressure, I believe EUR/USD is approaching one of the most important technical areas of the current trend.
Despite the recent pullback, I still consider this move a correction inside a broader bullish market rather than the beginning of a long-term bearish reversal.
📊 Institutional Positioning (COT Report)
The latest Commitment of Traders report continues to show that institutional positioning remains supportive of the euro.
Although Non-Commercial traders reduced part of their long exposure while increasing short positions during the last reporting week, the overall positioning suggests profit-taking rather than aggressive bearish positioning.
At the same time, the Dollar Index continues to show strong institutional demand, but the latest report also reveals decreasing positioning on both sides, indicating a slowdown in dollar momentum rather than renewed strength.
📅 Seasonality
Seasonality is another factor supporting my bullish outlook.
Historically, July has been one of the strongest months for EUR/USD across multiple historical datasets.
The average performance over the last:
• 20 years
• 15 years
• 5 years
• 2 years
remains positive, with strength often increasing during the second half of the month.
👥 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders remain heavily positioned on the long side.
Current positioning:
• 64% Long
• 36% Short
While this could still trigger some short-term liquidity grabs below recent lows, retail sentiment alone is not enough to invalidate the broader bullish structure.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to trade inside a descending corrective channel.
Price is currently reacting from a major Daily Demand Zone around 1.1350–1.1400, where buyers have started defending the market.
The recent candles suggest that selling momentum is fading while buyers are gradually building higher lows inside the zone.
As long as this support holds, I expect buyers to attempt a move toward the first supply areas.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers manage to break the descending channel, my next upside targets become:
🎯 1.1600
🎯 1.1665
🎯 1.1750
🎯 1.1850
Bearish Scenario
Only a Daily close below 1.1350 would invalidate my bullish bias.
In that case, price could extend toward the 1.1300–1.1250 support area before attracting fresh buyers.
My Trading Plan
I want to see confirmation that buyers are taking control before looking for long opportunities. AUD/JPY Ready For Another Sell-Off?After combining Price Action, COT Report, Seasonality and Retail Sentiment, I believe AUDJPY is approaching one of the most interesting decision points of the month.
From a technical perspective, the market remains in a clear bearish structure. Price continues to print lower highs and lower lows while respecting the descending channel that has been guiding price action since early June.
The recent rejection from the higher supply zone confirms that sellers are still defending premium prices, making another move lower a realistic scenario.
My first area of interest sits around the 111.20–111.80 demand zone, where I expect buyers to react.
COT Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report shows that speculative positioning on the Australian Dollar remains slightly bearish, with Non-Commercial traders still holding a net short position.
On the Japanese Yen, positioning also remains heavily net short. Although this suggests structural weakness in JPY, positioning has already reached historically stretched levels, reducing the strength of this signal.
Overall, the COT data does not provide a strong directional advantage for either currency.
Seasonality
This is where the picture changes.
Historically, July has been one of the strongest months for the Australian Dollar, while the Japanese Yen has consistently underperformed during the same period.
This seasonal combination generally favors higher AUDJPY prices throughout the month.
Retail Sentiment
Retail positioning currently shows approximately 55% of traders are short AUDJPY.
As a contrarian indicator, this slightly increases the probability of an upside move if price starts invalidating the current bearish structure.
My Outlook
While I still believe price has room to revisit the demand zone around 111.20–111.80, I remain cautious about expecting an aggressive continuation lower.
The technical trend is still bearish, but the macro backdrop is gradually shifting in favor of AUD strength and JPY weakness.
For this reason, I will be watching price behaviour very carefully once demand is tested.
If buyers step in and market structure begins to shift, this area could become the starting point of a much larger bullish reversal during the second half of July.
Bias: Short-term Bearish | Medium-term Neutral to Bullish CADJPY | Is Another Leg Lower Coming?CADJPY continues to respect its medium-term bearish structure after approaching the weekly 50% engulfing level.
From a technical perspective, price remains below the previous lower highs, confirming that sellers still control the market. The daily supply area between 114.00–114.80 is the primary point of interest. A retracement into this zone followed by lower timeframe confirmation would provide the highest-probability short setup.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) data also supports this view. Large speculators remain heavily short CAD, while the Japanese Yen continues to maintain a relatively stronger positioning. This keeps the broader macro bias in favor of JPY strength versus CAD.
Seasonality further reinforces the bearish outlook. Historically, July has been one of the strongest months for the Canadian Dollar, but it has also tended to be a weaker period for the Japanese Yen. Despite this mixed seasonal backdrop, the current technical structure and institutional positioning outweigh seasonality, making price action the primary driver.
Retail sentiment adds another confluence: around 74% of traders are currently long CADJPY. From a contrarian perspective, this overcrowded long positioning increases the probability of further downside if the weekly supply rejection holds.
Trading Plan
Primary Bias: Bearish
Wait for price to retrace into the 50% of the daily supply zone at 114.40.
Look for lower timeframe confirmation (market structure shift, liquidity sweep, or bearish displacement).
Initial targets: 113.50, followed by 112.70, where the next major daily demand sits. Silver | Bull Trap Before the Next Sell-Off?Silver is approaching a critical phase. While July has historically been one of the strongest months for the metal, my technical and positioning analysis suggests that traders should remain cautious before turning bullish.
Technical Overview
From a weekly perspective, the market has already confirmed a Market Structure Shift (MSS) after breaking the previous swing low. Since then, price has been printing a clear sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, respecting a well-defined descending channel.
As long as this structure remains intact, I continue to view rallies as corrective moves rather than the beginning of a new uptrend.
The most important resistance area remains the Weekly Order Block between 76.00 and 80.00, where institutional selling previously entered the market.
Below that area sits a Weekly Fair Value Gap around 70.00-72.00, which could act as a magnet for price if buyers manage to trigger a short-term recovery.
For me, this zone represents the highest-probability location to monitor for fresh bearish confirmations rather than aggressive long positions.
Seasonality Says Bullish…
One factor that deserves attention is seasonality.
Historically, July has been one of Silver's strongest months across virtually every historical sample.
Average July performance:
• 20 Years: +0.65%
• 15 Years: +0.76%
• 10 Years: +0.61%
• 5 Years: +1.07%
• 2 Years: +2.38%
The seasonal data suggests that buying pressure often develops during the second half of July.
COT Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report provides another interesting piece of the puzzle.
Commercial traders remain heavily Net Short, continuing to hedge at relatively elevated prices.
Meanwhile, Non-Commercial traders are still Net Long, but recent positioning shows early signs of weakness:
• Long positions decreased.
• Short positions increased.
This doesn't confirm an immediate reversal, but it does suggest that bullish conviction is beginning to fade.
My Trading Plan
At the moment, I have no interest in chasing longs.
Instead, I'm watching for a corrective rally into the 72–76 USD area.
If price reaches that zone and lower timeframes confirm renewed selling pressure through a CHoCH or MSS, I'll be looking for short opportunities aligned with the higher-timeframe trend.
Should Silver break directly below current lows, I would rather wait for another retracement than sell into weakness.
Short
GBP/USD: Is This Rally Just a Trap Before the Next Sell-Off?The recent rebound on GBP/USD has improved short-term momentum, but I still believe the broader structure favors the bears. From my perspective, this move looks more like a corrective rally than the beginning of a new bullish trend.
On the daily timeframe, price remains inside a well-defined descending channel, with lower highs still intact. The current advance is approaching the first significant supply zone around 1.3420–1.3460, where previous support, dynamic resistance, and the upper boundary of the channel converge. A stronger area of institutional supply sits higher between 1.3550–1.3640, and as long as price remains below this zone, my higher-timeframe bias stays bearish.
The Commitment of Traders report reinforces this view. Large speculators continue to hold a substantial net short position on British Pound futures, while positioning on the U.S. Dollar Index remains net long. This combination suggests that institutional flows still favor Dollar strength over Sterling.
Retail sentiment, however, offers an interesting counterpoint. Around 72% of retail traders are currently short GBP/USD, which increases the possibility of a short squeeze before the market resumes its broader downtrend. Because of this, I would not be surprised to see price extend higher into one of the supply zones before sellers regain control.
Seasonality also deserves consideration. July has historically shown a slightly positive tendency for GBP/USD, particularly in recent years. While this may support additional upside in the short term, I do not believe it outweighs the broader technical structure and institutional positioning.
For now, I remain patient. Rather than selling into the current rally, I prefer to wait for price to reach a higher-probability resistance area and look for bearish confirmation before considering any short positions.
Key Levels
🔹 Resistance: 1.3420–1.3460
🔹 Major Supply: 1.3550–1.3640
🔹 Downside Targets: 1.3220 → 1.3150 → 1.3050 EUR/USD Pre-NFP Analysis: Here's What I'm WatchingWith the Non-Farm Payrolls report approaching, EUR/USD is trading at a critical location where technical structure, market positioning and sentiment are beginning to align. While today's employment data could generate significant volatility, I believe the higher timeframe continues to favor selling rallies rather than chasing the current bounce.
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains inside a well-defined bearish structure. Since the April highs, the market has been printing lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers are still in control. After reaching a major demand zone around 1.1330, buyers have managed to trigger a short-term rebound, but I currently view this move as corrective.
The area attracting my attention sits between 1.1450 and 1.15.
This zone combines multiple technical confluences:
Daily Supply
Previous market structure
Descending trendline resistance
Fair Value Gap
If price retraces into this area after the NFP release and produces bearish confirmation on the lower timeframes, I will be looking for new short opportunities aligned with the prevailing trend.
Retail Sentiment
Retail traders continue positioning against the current market structure.
Current positioning shows:
65% Long
35% Short
Almost two-thirds of retail traders are expecting higher prices.
Historically, when retail positioning becomes this one-sided, it often acts as a contrarian signal. As long as traders continue buying into a bearish structure, sentiment remains supportive of further downside.
Commitment of Traders
Institutional positioning also deserves attention.
Large Speculators remain net long EUR futures, but the latest report shows an increase in both long and short positions, suggesting growing uncertainty rather than aggressive bullish conviction.
On the other side, the US Dollar Index continues to show a healthy net long positioning among Non-Commercial traders, indicating that institutional demand for the dollar remains intact.
This divergence explains why, despite positive long-term positioning on the euro, EUR/USD has struggled to regain upward momentum.
Seasonality
Historically, July has been one of the strongest months for EUR/USD.
Across multiple historical samples, July has delivered positive average returns, supporting the possibility of a short-term recovery during the first part of the month.
However, seasonality should not be considered in isolation.
At the moment, bearish price structure, retail positioning and ongoing dollar strength outweigh the seasonal tailwind.
For this reason, I see any recovery as a potential opportunity to reposition with the broader trend rather than evidence of a lasting reversal.
NFP Risk
Today's Non-Farm Payrolls will likely dictate short-term direction.
Market expectations:
Non-Farm Payrolls: 114K
Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3%
Unemployment Rate: 4.3%
A stronger-than-expected report would likely strengthen the US Dollar and increase the probability of EUR/USD continuing lower.
Conversely, weaker employment data could fuel a temporary relief rally into the supply zones I'm monitoring.
My Trading Plan
Waiting for:
Liquidity Sweep
Change of Character (CHoCH)
Break of Structure (BOS)
Strong bearish rejection
🎯 Targets
TP1: 1.1450
TP2: 1.1330
TP3: 1.1250
AUD/USD: Institutions vs Retail — Who Will Be Right?After several weeks of sustained selling pressure, AUD/USD has finally reached a significant demand area around 0.6840, where buyers have started to react. While this has triggered a short-term bounce, I don't believe the broader trend has changed yet.
From a technical perspective, the pair remains inside a well-defined bearish structure, characterized by lower highs and lower lows since the May peak. The recent rebound appears corrective rather than impulsive, and my focus remains on finding higher-probability short opportunities rather than chasing the current move higher.
The key area I'm monitoring is the 0.7045–0.7090 supply zone. This region combines several technical confluences:
Daily supply zone
Descending trendline resistance
Previous market structure
Daily Fair Value Gap
If price retraces into this area and prints bearish confirmation on the lower timeframes (Liquidity Sweep, CHoCH or BOS), I will be looking for short positions in line with the dominant trend.
Retail Sentiment
One of the strongest reasons behind my bearish bias comes from retail positioning.
Current sentiment shows:
69% of traders are Long
31% are Short
Retail traders continue buying the dip while price remains in a bearish market structure. Historically, extreme retail positioning tends to work as a contrarian indicator, which still supports further downside.
Commitment of Traders
The latest COT report reinforces this view.
Large Speculators remain net short on the Australian Dollar, while positioning on the US Dollar Index continues to favor the upside.
This combination suggests institutions are still betting on:
weaker AUD
stronger USD
Until this changes, I prefer trading in the direction of institutional positioning.
Seasonality
July has historically been a positive month for AUD/USD, which increases the probability of a short-term recovery.
However, seasonality alone rarely reverses a well-established trend.
Instead, I see it as an additional reason to expect a corrective rally into resistance before the next bearish leg develops.
Sell Zone:
0.7040 – 0.7075
Confirmation Required:
Liquidity Sweep
Change of Character (CHoCH)
Break of Structure (BOS)
Bearish engulfing or rejection
Targets:
🎯 TP1: 0.6950
🎯 TP2: 0.6840
🎯 TP3: 0.6680
Short
